Yeah, that's what puts me closer to the second premise.
I think MOST of the folk in those regions want to be with mother Russia.
Hell, Russia built Odessa from the ground up and has controlled the Crimea for over 2 centuries.
I'm not so sure about that. I think the people there would like to be independent if not still part of the Ukraine. Now, to be sure, Russia wants them to think that's impossible and as of the Ukrainian Army rolling in, the Ukraine government is playing into Russian hands.
An edict from a "government" that was installed by mob rule isn't sufficient to show good faith to people who don't agree that they're the government in the first place. If neutral negotiators of some sort had gone in with Army clearly at their backs things would be a lot different. As it is, there hasn't been any real effort to calm the situation down, just edicts from Kiev in between screams for help from foreign troops.
Once the Army of "your own country" starts shooting at you, though, things get polarized really, really fast. That's why the mob in Kiev who could have waited a few months for elections, egged things on until police were fried alive and someone started shooting demonstrators. At this point, who really knows if the targets were people preparing or lighting Molotovs, people with bullhorns someone thought were leaders, or random protesters?
I for one don't believe a word out of the mouths of the people in Kiev since they lied about the Paratroop Brigade one day and dis-banned them the next. They're clearly no different than the democrat media in our country, they make up whatever they think will get them through the day. The thing is, the mob in Kiev kept ratcheting up the situation until police were burned alive and people were shot.
Now, true to form, the same people the mob put in power have racheted up the situation by sending the Ukrainian Army in to fight Ukrainian civilians. The people now in charge very clearly want a war because they think that's the way to get foreign troops in to keep them in power and they know they can't hold on to power without that intervention.