Re: NY1
Some have voiced concerned over Zeldin because Demos says he’s voted to fund Obamacare, I believe this a delibrite distortion. Conservative Party chairman Mike Long denouced Demos’ attack ads.
Zeldin similarly unfairly attacked Demos, calling him a “Pelosi Republican” because Demos’ father in law donated to Demos’ campaign and also to Pelosi. It was a very nasty race.
Good news on Hayworth getting the IP line.
So it looks like
NY-21 is maybe third on our takeover list after the seats in NC and UT?
NY-1 we have a good chance
NY-18 we have a good chance (according to Wikipedia Rothenberg surprisingly has it as safe D, most people say lean D)
NY-4 we have a chance. Redistricting was not kind to the Long Island seats, I believe Israel’s is the only one that got more Republican.
Odds are probably better than even that Grimm will lose so I hope to offset that other gains in state. If Grimm does lose I hope State Senator Andrew Lanza runs in 2016.
Bad new in NY unrelated to the election, the breakaway democrats that are in a coalition with Senate Republicans are very fearful of primary challengers, so they say they are ending the coalition. The Senate is supposedly in recess for the rest of the year.
http://online.wsj.com/articles/new-york-state-senate-coalition-ends-1403748346
We need Republicans to gain outright control in this upcoming election (hopefully keeping Simcha Felder in the fold), WSJ say that is “unlikely”.
In New York, District 24 was a disappointment. RINO Richard Hanna narrowly won the primary in a Republican-leaning district. There is no DemocRAT running. Claudia Tenney almost won the Republican nomination. She is the nominee of the Conservative Party, but will she actively campaign in the fall? For the time being, I don’t expect that she will.
If Brookyln Democrat Recchia beats Grimm (thanks to the Democrats’ political witch hunt of the only GOP congressman from NYC), I agree that state Senator Andrew Lanza would be our best bet to win the NY-11 back in 2016. But will Lanza give up his safe state senate seat to run for Congress? His predecessor in the state senate, John Marchi, held that state senate seat for 50 years (he was elected to 25 two-year terms), and only ran for higher office in odd-numbered years (he ran for NYC mayor a couple of times) so as not to have to give up his senate seat.
As you probably know, I have long advocated running a Stated Island Italian-American in that CD, and I’m sure that they’re some good ones who could beat Recchia, but half-Greek, half-Cuban Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis (who represents parts of Staten Island and Brooklyn in the state house) sure seems to be a great potential candidate for 2016:
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/381928/latina-who-killed-dream-act-christine-sisto