Gerald Celente is convinced the Third World War will erupt in the Middle East.
That depends on how you define “WW 3”. I expect a large ME regional war, and so do the Saudis, who have been arming to the teeth. The Saudis’ biggest problem is probably manpower to fight, tho’ they have been buying a lot of high tech to compensate.
However, the chances such a war would turn into a major US vs. Russia confrontation are remote. Putin can’t even handle Ukraine and Syria, and we could make it a LOT tougher for him without endangering a single US soldier, simply by increasing our support to Ukraine, and fast-tracking energy sales of every type they will take, to Europe. Further, Putin’s ability to project power in the ME on a sustained basis is still very limited: The Italian Navy alone (at least if they don’t mothball half their fleet soon) could put Russia’s Black Sea fleet on the bottom and (mostly) live to tell the tale. As noted above, Russian air power is a poor option as well.
The greater threat is in the long run, as US weakness and lack of will is going to spark an arms race that will likely lead to a “mid-powers” nuclear war (or perhaps a mid-power vs. large power nuclear war) within, by my estimate, 10-50 years. It may well start in the ME, but I give it just as much chance to start somewhere that today seems “surprising” to most people. Essentially, if there is no “cop”, the neighborhood arms up, and in this case, even many of the “good parts” of the neighborhood are not nearly as civilized places as most might think. The bad parts of the neighborhood are REALLY sobering.
Whups, the ‘ol writing skills go downhill late in the evening... That last paragraph should have been:
“The greater threat is in the long run. US weakness and lack of will is going to spark a smaller powers arms race that will likely lead to a “mid-powers” nuclear war, or perhaps a mid-power vs. large power nuclear war (without an opposing large power responding with nukes). The race has already begun. The war will happen within, by my estimate, 10-50 years. It may well start in the ME, but I give it just as much chance to start somewhere that today seems “surprising” to most people.”