EU's triple whammy: Recession, deflation, and debt

Here we go again. Another sovereign debt crisis on the periphery of the EU is underway and many of the same factors that led to previous debt meltdowns are present.

Germany is headed for a triple dip recession. Continent-wide deflation is nearly a reality. And many EU nations are smashing the debt limits demanded by treaty, thus threatening the Euro itself. All of this is impacting the percentage of debt in relation to GDP in several countries, making government bonds more expensive and debt servicing a nightmare.

Among Europe's most recent economic tremors has been the growing evidence that the German economic recovery has now run out of steam. Indeed, the most recent German economic data would suggest that the eurozone's economic locomotive is now likely to have succumbed to a triple-dip economic recession in the third quarter of 2014. Should Germany in fact experience another recession, there is little prospect that the rest of Europe will manage to get itself out of its present economic funk since it is so dependent on a healthy Germany for its exports.

Germany's most recent economic slowdown would seem to be all the more concerning for the eurozone since the forces that have caused the German economy to slump are not likely to go away anytime soon. That would certainly appear to be true of the escalating sanctions resulting from the West's standoff with Russia over Ukraine, the ongoing Middle Eastern geopolitical uncertainties and the significant economic slowdown in a number of major emerging market economies.

Yet another early warning sign that Europe could very well soon be heading toward the next round of its sovereign debt crisis is that it appears to be well on the way to outright price deflation.

Continent-wide deflation is nearly a reality.

The only reason this is seen as a bad thing is because countries are constantly in debt, and this makes their debt worse. For responsible agents in the economy, deflation is a wonderful thing.

The socialist governments utilize vast stock valuations of their corporations to provide the funding for government benefits to masses; if the stocks drop like in 2000, the Companies and the Governments lose the projections for revenues to make financial transfers to make their economies work. There are not actually enough people working in Europe to tax and provide the “Mass” benefits. Cush deals with dictators for Oil and raw materials in the Mid-East and Africa fuel the spending but leave those country’s populations destitute. European governments exploit economically nations with dictatorships by siding with them at the UN and taking kickbacks economically from the rulers; hence the periodic disruptions in their “client” states leadership. If you remember the invasion of Iraq required Russia to oppose based on 9B owed govt to govt, Italy was in for 4B, France for 7B - once the US agreed to offset those losses, the invasion went forth without Russia’s blessing. Let the weaker economies like Africa be disrupted and it will translate into disruptions in European countries that literally own them.

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.