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NCAA Men’s Tournament Forecast: The Parity Is Over (Nate Silver's Stats)
fivethirtyeight.com ^ | 03/16/2015 | NATE SILVER

Posted on 03/17/2015 3:55:32 PM PDT by Kid Shelleen

Not long ago, in a galaxy not so far away from wherever Comcast placed truTV in your cable lineup, the era of the dominant men’s college basketball team was over. Last year, no team had more than a 15 percent chance of winning the NCAA men’s tournament, according to FiveThirtyEight’s pre-tournament forecast (Louisville was the best bet). In 2011, the nominal favorite was Duke, with a 22 percent chance. In 2012, it was Kentucky, at 27 percent, and in 2013, Louisville led with a 23 percent chance. While two of those favorites (Kentucky in 2012 and Louisville in 2013) happened to win, the lack of dominant teams left the door wide open for lower seeds to make a deep run, as No. 7 seed Connecticut did in winning last year’s national championship.

This year is much different

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...


TOPICS: News/Current Events
KEYWORDS: kentucky; marchmadness; ncaa; uk; wildcats

1 posted on 03/17/2015 3:55:32 PM PDT by Kid Shelleen
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To: Kid Shelleen

After what the NCAA unjustly did to Syracuse, I really don’t care about their tournament anymore.


2 posted on 03/17/2015 4:02:12 PM PDT by SkyPilot ("I am the way and the truth and the life. No one comes to the Father except through me." John 14:6)
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To: Kid Shelleen

Its the year of the Mustangs!!!

Go SMU!


3 posted on 03/17/2015 4:03:14 PM PDT by Kandy Atz ("Were we directed from Washington when to sow and when to reap, we should soon want for bread.")
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To: SkyPilot

>>After what the NCAA unjustly did to Syracuse, I really don’t care about their tournament anymore.<<

Fascist rulers consult the NCAA.

Now that I don’t have my betting buddies, the only interest I have in the tourney is the Schadenfreude of one of the #1 teams going out in the 1st or 2nd round.


4 posted on 03/17/2015 4:09:19 PM PDT by freedumb2003 (islam: The hands of the Chinese, the mouths of the arabs, the minds of the French.)
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To: Kid Shelleen

The parity is over but what about the party, is it over too?


5 posted on 03/17/2015 4:09:41 PM PDT by PapaNew (The grace of God & freedom always win the debate in the forum of ideas over unjust law & government)
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To: SkyPilot

The NCAA is filled with corrupt whores but the NCAA tournament is one guilty pleasure I allow myself. I cut the cable cord because of the total commercialization of all sports.


6 posted on 03/17/2015 4:09:45 PM PDT by Kid Shelleen (Beat your plowshares into swords. Let the weak say I am strong)
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To: Kandy Atz
University at Buffalo. Last in. Last out. Your tournament champion.
7 posted on 03/17/2015 4:16:45 PM PDT by fhayek (SARCASM for those who can't understand my tone.)
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To: Kandy Atz

Not if KY has anything to say. They are going for HISTORY.


8 posted on 03/17/2015 5:36:45 PM PDT by Biggirl ("One Lord, one faith, one baptism" - Ephesians 4:5)
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To: Kid Shelleen

Thanks for post. Big help.


9 posted on 03/17/2015 5:57:16 PM PDT by deweyfrank
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To: Kid Shelleen

Interesting. Thanks for posting.


10 posted on 03/17/2015 6:14:52 PM PDT by PGalt
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To: Kandy Atz
Go SMU!

Ditto!

11 posted on 03/17/2015 6:18:09 PM PDT by dfwgator
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To: dfwgator
This was a really intelligent approach to the ratings and seedings of the tournament, I really enjoyed it.

I am a Kentucky Fan and a Louisville fan. I have never seen a team as well controlled as Kentucky is this year. They have seemed unflappable even when way down, they just keep working. They have as many really great players as any other two teams have. They can take all 5 starters out and put the next 5 in and not lose a thing. They are really awesome to watch, I do hope they go all the way.

12 posted on 03/17/2015 9:08:43 PM PDT by JAKraig (Surely my religion is at least as good as yours)
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To: Kandy Atz

Texas is about to go 0 for 5 in the tourney, only S.F. Austin is left.


13 posted on 03/19/2015 2:26:08 PM PDT by dfwgator
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To: dfwgator

I was really crushed by the ending of the SMU game. We had our opportunities.

I expected Baylor and SMU to advance. Not so much Texas.

Oh well, its been a fun ride.


14 posted on 03/19/2015 3:35:22 PM PDT by Kandy Atz ("Were we directed from Washington when to sow and when to reap, we should soon want for bread.")
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To: Kandy Atz

Well today has pretty much removed any remaining interest I’ve had in this tournament, just hand the trophy to Kentucky now.


15 posted on 03/19/2015 5:11:10 PM PDT by dfwgator
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