Posted on 06/06/2015 11:35:11 PM PDT by SunkenCiv
His sister and their mother both live in, I think it is, Kuwait. Other members of his family (including his sister’s late husband) have been either assassinated or driven into exile by the regime. Assad himself will either be killed or will run for it, and will probably wind up living somewhere with a climate colder than the Near East’s.
The mandatory military service (five years, male and female, following 18th birthday) has been avoided by many for many years. The usual course of action was taking a holiday [wink wink] to various gulf states, where there is work to be had, they’d start working there, and never go back, just send the occasional wire transfer of funds. They couldn’t go home without getting arrested, so the emigre’ community has become quite large, and since they were working in the gulf states, prosperous. It’s not surprising that the elder Assad was against Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait.
Even before the civil war, there were few employment prospects in Syria outside of jobs in the ruling party, or staying in the military. Neither one was a great prospect. The occupation of Lebanon used to generate both a stream of loot (public and private, payoffs, kickbacks, etc) and a nice spot for entrepreneurship (smuggling) and holidays. The younger Assad screwed that up, and at long last the Lebanese and the international community stood up and got Syria out. That was an economic blow. Had it not been for Iran’s proxy thugs occupying part of, and running most of, Lebanon, the Syrian grip probably would have taken longer to loosen.
Back when he took over, had the younger Assad dumped the military service requirement, it would have been an admission that the Baathist party goal of Greater Syria and conquest of the Golan had been abandoned (both should be). Economic reform would have made life better both immediately and over time, and amnesty to bring back the emigres’ (and their investment capital) might have made Syria a pretty nice place to live. But giving way to economic liberty would mean abandoning the regime’s power and the people’s dependence on the regime. Can’t have that.
Assad is going to go; what’s left of the failed state of Syria will continue to be cut up into little meatballs, just like Lebanon and Iraq — and the common denominator is Iran, which is the only foreign power occupying territory in any of the three. In perhaps twenty years, after the open warfare simmers down into a grumpy, slightly violent coexistence, a patchwork of paramilitary pseudostates, each run by some Arab warlord, will control everything that is now considered Syria and Iraq, with the exception of Kurdistan. Alas, I doubt that Kurdistan will have international recognition as an independent state even by then.
I hate to say but Iran sending peacekeepers to Syria is one way to establish a cease fire as long as Assad gets to flee to either Moscow or Tehran.
Kinda like the losses suffered by the White Males in the Confederate Army during the American Civil War.
Iran doesn’t do peacekeeping, never has, never will.
If Assad leaves, who will protect the Alawites from ethnic cleansing?
They’re armed, they’re the only ones outside the army that Assad bothered to arm. Once he’s dead, they’ll be just another armed group in the country. Iran doesn’t have peacekeepers, never has, never will. Iran is an occupying power. The internal struggles in the Alawite ruling class is over the dominance of the Iranians and their Hezbollah thugs. Assad always has the backs of the thugs.
Kinda like the Kurds
When Arabs fight a real army, they lose.
Both sides even find a way to lose when they fight each other.
;') The key to victory is, fight an Arab army. :') I suspect it depends on how they value the (quite imaginary) muzzie afterlife vs how they value real life, their wives, children, etc. In the 1973 war the Israelis had plenty of warning but ignored it, the dominant view being that the Arabs wouldn't fight another war. That was an expensive mistake. OTOH, Syria sent in over 1300 tanks and lost nearly 1000 of them; after the ground offensive failed, most of their SAM batteries were withdrawn (Assad's orders) to protect Damascus and the usual IAF tactics of knocking out tanks from the air started to work again, making the slaughter worse. Of course, the generals were blamed rather than Assad, and dragged dead behind jeeps through the streets of Damascus. Hard to stay motivated when fighting for a dictator, monarch, or other despot, that may be the biggest factor.
If you’d like to be on or off, please FR mail me.
..................
I would imagine someone in Roman times said the same until Rome fell under baricade, seige, starvation and submission.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.