I was wrong about Assad. Two years ago I stated here on FR that I felt he had his jet idling at a nearby airport. As things were looking bad for him. I had no idea he was so pugnacious. Felt he would take to ground before he got the Kaddaffy treatment. He remains. Amidst the ever decreasing skyline of Syria’s once proud cities...
Assad leaves, that means his tribe, the Alawites get slaughtered.
His sister and their mother both live in, I think it is, Kuwait. Other members of his family (including his sister’s late husband) have been either assassinated or driven into exile by the regime. Assad himself will either be killed or will run for it, and will probably wind up living somewhere with a climate colder than the Near East’s.
The mandatory military service (five years, male and female, following 18th birthday) has been avoided by many for many years. The usual course of action was taking a holiday [wink wink] to various gulf states, where there is work to be had, they’d start working there, and never go back, just send the occasional wire transfer of funds. They couldn’t go home without getting arrested, so the emigre’ community has become quite large, and since they were working in the gulf states, prosperous. It’s not surprising that the elder Assad was against Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait.
Even before the civil war, there were few employment prospects in Syria outside of jobs in the ruling party, or staying in the military. Neither one was a great prospect. The occupation of Lebanon used to generate both a stream of loot (public and private, payoffs, kickbacks, etc) and a nice spot for entrepreneurship (smuggling) and holidays. The younger Assad screwed that up, and at long last the Lebanese and the international community stood up and got Syria out. That was an economic blow. Had it not been for Iran’s proxy thugs occupying part of, and running most of, Lebanon, the Syrian grip probably would have taken longer to loosen.
Back when he took over, had the younger Assad dumped the military service requirement, it would have been an admission that the Baathist party goal of Greater Syria and conquest of the Golan had been abandoned (both should be). Economic reform would have made life better both immediately and over time, and amnesty to bring back the emigres’ (and their investment capital) might have made Syria a pretty nice place to live. But giving way to economic liberty would mean abandoning the regime’s power and the people’s dependence on the regime. Can’t have that.