Donald Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Trump
Posted on 06/25/2015 1:02:53 AM PDT by nickcarraway
Yes, pollsters say. ‘Everybody should calm down.’
Real estate tycoon Donald Trump has been gleefully calling attention to a Suffolk University poll showing him in second place among the large 2016 Republican primary field, and whispers of a Trump surge are making the rounds.
It might be wise to take a deep breath.
The poll, released Tuesday, showed former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush in the lead in New Hampshire, with 14 percent, followed by Trump with 11. The Trump victory dance, or tweet, quickly followed: “the highly respected Suffolk University poll just announced that I am alone in 2nd place in New Hampshire, with Jeb Bust (Bush) in first.” It’s true that Trump did indeed take second place in that poll. But it’s also true that nationally Trump’s polling has been on the decline, and that his favorability numbers aren’t hot in New Hampshire. The poll also comes far in advance of the New Hampshire GOP primary, to be held early in 2016.
Pollsters and GOP consultants in the state chalked up Trump’s bump to a mixture of his recent candidacy announcement and the high name recognition that comes from his notoriously flamboyant personality, not to mention his reality-show fame.
“Everybody should calm down,” Andy Smith, the director of the University of New Hampshire’s Survey Center, said. “What you’re seeing is real in the sense that people who are paying any attention to this in the last week or so have seen Donald Trump on TV. That doesn’t mean they’re going to vote for him.”
Right now, the early polls don’t reflect how many hands have been shaken by a candidate or how much money has been spent on advertising or how many staffers are on the ground there.
“When you’re asking people about who they’re going to vote for in the New Hampshire primary, what you’re asking is, ‘All right, it’s months from the primary now: Who have you seen in the newspaper lately?’ And that would be Donald Trump,” Smith added.
A deeper look at the Suffolk poll results also cast doubt that this really is some kind of Trump surge. On favorability, the poll found Trump underwater among New Hampshire Republican primary voters, with 37 percent saying they had a favorable view of him, while 49 percent have an unfavorable view. A much smaller 13 percent said they were undecided on him, and just 6 percent said they hadn’t heard of him.
By comparison, the Suffolk poll found that 58 percent said they had a favorable view of Bush, while 26 percent said they held an unfavorable view of him. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who came in third in the poll, also had better favorability numbers than Trump — 53 percent said they had a favorable view of him, while 16 percent said they had an unfavorable view. “I think there’s more bad news for him than good news,” New Hampshire Republican operative Tom Rath said, pointing to Trump’s favorability numbers. “I’m not saying the poll is invalid or that it’s faulty as a poll. The timing of it is dubious in that it’s right at the moment of the maximum publicity announcement and that there was a lot of media coverage of it, and so there’s probably a lot of oomph.”
The favorability number might actually show Trump’s ceiling, Patrick Murray, the director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said. In May, the RealClearPolitics average of national polls on the GOP field put Trump at 4.5 percent. But as of late June, Trump is at 3.2 percent.
“At the end of the day, it’s quite possible that Donald Trump will get 11 percent in New Hampshire, but that might be his cap,” Murray said.
The other big tell, former New Hampshire Republican Party chairman Fergus Cullen said, is that there’s no visible grass-roots movement for Trump in the state.
“Do I think it’s a substantive measure of his real support? No way. But do I think it recognizes that he has some name recognition that other candidates don’t have?” Cullen said of the poll. “What I have observed of coverage of those events is that they seem to be made-for-TV events where there’s no authentic interactions with the candidate and voters.”
Cullen stressed that this isn’t a matter of the Suffolk poll’s accuracy, just name recognition.
“If the Suffolk poll had included David Ortiz too, Ortiz might have been first or second,” Cullen said.
Just saying.
It has only been three days, since Donald officially entered the race.
Three days. Stay tuned.
It’s been more than a week since his announcement. But nothing is real until he files his financial info.
(bookmarked, thanks)
June 2nd date.
When a liberal democRAT runs as a conservative Republican, nothing is ever real.
Where in the Constitution is there a requirement for a would-be President to provide financial information?
Donald Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Trump
Trump will mop up the floor during the debates. And should he by some chance not end up in the 1st tier of candidates, although he will, everyone will end up watching the 2nd tier debates just to see The Donald in action. But I fully expect he will be in the 1st tier.
Time will tell. Those in the 2nd tier should pray Trump ends up there too as it will bring millions of eyeballs to those 2nd tier debates, giving the others in the 2nd tier a fighting chance to get their performances a large viewing. It would give them their best chance to get out of the 2nd tier. But alas, I doubt they will be given this opportunity to debate with Trump.
I hope Hannity and Fox News stop inviting and shilling for Jeb. I am not watching them if they invite this clown. I remember them foolishly giving Obama a forum and they might put Hillary up. It is ridiculous
Not to mention his VP is Oprah or Caitlyn Jenner.
Trump’s triumph is a spit in the face of Boehner and McConnell.
If the elite would talk to some "little folk", they'd maybe learn a thing or two about how fed up with the DC sellouts we are.
That is so dishonest. As in a post answering yours, this was published June 2 !
Shillary’s pals pimping Shillary’s pal’s numbers? Well they did put the DUH in alqueDUH!
The time has come to throw out ALL career politicians from the local level to the highest level in the land.
Our original politicians were the patriots who founded our current government and they never intended to make a lifetime career at it. As a matter of fact they all had private jobs and businesses.
Turn to today: Being a political hack means it is stairway to financial success by selling freedom and responsibility to the highest bidder in exchange for their vote. The higher the level of office the higher the amount of wealth.
Over time (and particularly after the Viet Nam war) the moral compass of each generation has turned from individual responsibility to almost total dependence upon some type of government job, benefit or directive. Our educational system has been turned into an indoctrination system and our Constitutional rights are being attacked and declared null and void by Socialists, Communists and just plain stupid and dumb citizens (and non-citizens) who have passed through our tainted educational system.
I’m old and have lived since 1946 and enjoyed the “Norman Rockwell” days of our country and noticed the total change in our society when the “hippie” craze took hold. From that era America has steadily sunk into the cesspool we now find ourselves in.
My only salvation is to know I won’t have to live very long under the tyranny that will surely come to pass in the next 10 years.
Morality is dead. Responsibility is dead. Freedom is dead. Individualism is dead. The work ethic is dead and the list goes on and on and on.
The damage done by our so called “educational system” has enabled the dreams of those who wish to enslave us and the decedents of the slaves of the past are ensuring that they become political slaves of today.
He already has, claims to be worth 8.3 billion but some are questioning his numbers.
Trump’s poll numbers??
Fox has him’just behind the leader, Jeb’
Any one, who says jeb’s numbers are that high, I ignore as completely worthless
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