Posted on 07/14/2015 6:17:52 PM PDT by markomalley
It has been 117 months since a major hurricane, defined as a Category 3 or above, has made landfall in the continental United States, according to 2015 data from the Hurricane Research Division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).
This is the longest span of time in which no major hurricane has struck the mainland U.S. in NOAA hurricane records going back to 1851.
The second longest time between major hurricane strikes was the eight years between 1860 and 1869—146 years ago.
A recent study published May 5 and co-authored by Tim Hall of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Goddard Institute for Space Studies entitled The Frequency and Duration of U.S. Hurricane Droughts also confirmed that the current "admittedly unusual" drought is “unprecedented in the historical record."
That study found that major hurricane droughts only occur every 177 years, and calculated that there is less than a 5 percent chance (0.39%) that the current drought will end this hurricane season, which lasts from June 1 to November 30.
Hurricane Wilma, the most recent major hurricane to strike the U.S., was a Category 3 when it made landfall in North Carolina on October 24, 2005—almost 118 months ago.
Since the end of the 2005 hurricane season, the U.S. has experienced a nine-year major hurricane “drought,” which is approaching 10 years at the end of the 2015 season this November.
Last month, Eric Blake, a hurricane specialist at NOAA’s National Hurricane Center, told CNSNews.com that this is “easily the record—with all the necessary caveats.”
Blake co-authored NOAA’s The Deadliest, Costliest, And Most Intense United States Tropical Cyclones from 1851 to 2010 report, which explains that “category assignment is based on wind speed from 1851-1930 and 1990-2010 and on a combination of wind, pressure and storm surge from 1931-1989.”
The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale assigns categories from 1 to 5 based on sustained wind speeds and potential for damage. The scale was developed in 1969, so storms before then were assigned categories retroactively, using the historical measurements on record.
Blake told CNSNews.com that measurements for storm categorizations have improved over time.
While a Category 3 or greater storm has not struck the U.S. since Wilma in 2005, several hurricanes of lesser wind speeds have still caused considerable damage, including Ike in 2008 (Category 2), Irene in 2011 (Category 1), and Sandy in 2012 (Category 1).
According to NOAA, Category 1 storms cause “some damage” with sustained winds between 74-95 mph, and Category 2 storms cause “extensive damage” with winds between 96 and 110 mph.
Category 3, 4, and 5 hurricanes are considered “major” because of their ability to produce “devastating” and “catastrophic damage” with wind speeds of 111-129 mph, 130-156 mph, and 157 mph or higher, respectively.
"Small differences today that we could detect, you couldn’t detect a long time ago,” Blake told CNSNews.com. “Given that we just see things a little better, we‘ve got more data and better satellite data, we can give a little better estimate than we could a generation ago.”
“But nonetheless, it is a record. It’s easily the record,” he continued.
That a 117-month pause in major hurricane activity follows the most active Atlantic hurricane season in history is “an unlikely event, so ascribing the significance of it is a challenge,” Blake told CNSNews.com.
“I like to think of it as Mother Nature giving us a little bit of a break after giving us a beating in 2004 and 2005. That’s my best guess, but I don’t know.”
Random Weather/Bastardi Bump! :)
“global warming is a lie. I want “climate Chance” empirical data proof of “warming”or shut your pie hole!! I will pay no tax and observe no EPA rule until you do.
They had another form of hurricane, all right. It was the American Civil War.
Climate change!
I guess Algore’s scary movie made hurricanes terrified of making landfall in the USA.
Either that or Karl Rove really did have a hurricane machine that allowed him to aim hurricanes at minorities.
What’s really funny about Algore’s movie is that the poster directly linked hurricanes to pollution. That tubby, grifting ass is going to look like a complete moron in history books. I wish I could be there 500 years from now when someone does some research on early 21st century scumbags and pulls up a video of him lecturing someone or talking like a southern black man during a campaign stop.
I was wondering why sales were down for the past DECADE in my sheet plywood business!
*SMIRK*
There was another form of hurricane, all right. It was the American Civil War.
We’re just in a 17 year global warming lull.
It’s that Global Warming, I tell ya!
Computer models are showing that they’re all out there churning up 200+ mph winds and massive amounts of rainfall. They’re waiting to pounce, and they’ll be making landfall within a very concentrated span of time. Take this very seriesly. It’s nothing to shake a hockey stick at.
P.S. Tell Sheila Jackson Lee that one of them will be named “Trayvon.” She’ll be relieved that the hurricane namers are finally exercising fairness.
HEADLINE: HURRICANE DROUGHT DUE TO GLOBAL WARMING!!!
Anyone who thinks there’s a major hurricane drought hasn’t been paying attention to the Pacific Ocean.
They’re churning up one after the other over there.
As the high energy output from solar storms (MCE’s) slows, the excessive variance in global weather follows.
It’s like sitting by the pool and kicking your feet in the water. If you stop, the waves in the pool diminish.
I just love it when Mother Nature makes fools of the Global Warming Experts.
I just love it when Mother Nature makes fools of the Global Warming Experts.
Nothing. ;)
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