BLUEGRASS POLL: Kentucky Gov. race a barnburner

WHAS 11 ^ | July 30, 2015 | Joe Arnold

[Republican Wildcat]

LOUISVILLE, Ky. (WHAS11) -- As Matt Bevin and Jack Conway prepare for the unofficial kickoff of the Kentucky gubernatorial campaign at Fancy Farm, the race appears to be a barnburner.

Conway, Kentucky's Democratic Attorney General, holds a slim lead over Bevin, the Republican nominee and businessman, 45 percent to 42 percent, in the WHAS11/Courier-Journal Bluegrass Poll released Thursday. The three percentage point margin is within pollster Survey USA's 3.8 percent margin of error. The poll surveyed likely voters between July 22 and July 28.

The Bluegrass Poll also queried voters on a potential three-candidate governor's race. Fark.com founder Drew Curtis is pursuing an independent bid yet has not yet submitted the required 5,000 signatures to qualify as a petition candidate and be listed on the fall ballot.

In a three-person race, Curtis siphons off more Bevin votes than from Conway. The Bluegrass Poll shows Conway leading Bevin 43 percent to 38 percent, with Curtis gleaning 8 percent of the vote.

Analysis of the poll by Survey USA shows that Bevin, who unsuccessfully challenged Mitch McConnell in the 2014 GOP Senate primary, suffers from soft support among voters who describe themselves as "very conservative." 15 percent of such voters cross-over and vote for Conway in the poll.

"Bevin needs every one of these 'very conservative' votes to win," the analysis concludes. "Moderates break 2:1 Democrat. And Kentucky's few liberals, as expected, vote overwhelmingly Blue. 13% of likely voters today are undecided," the poll memo reads.

[Republican Wildcat]

This is the same poll that showed Grimes defeating McConnell last year at some points in the race, so take it for what it is worth. I cannot believe that "very conservative" voters are going to end up voting for Conway over Bevin come election day. Moreover, Conway's name ID should be way higher than Bevin's because Conway ran against Anne Northup for Congress in 2002, was elected statewide as Attorney General in 2007 and 2011, and was the Dem candidate running against Rand Paul in the 2010 U.S. Senate race. Bevin needs to get the airwaves.

[Theodore R.]

Those “very conservative” voters have already voted for Conway; they have yet to elect Bevin to anything.

[Norm Lenhart]

Look for these ‘conservatives’ to Give Mitch another partner for destroying America. Because they proved conclusively they enjoy people that work with Barry.

[Bogey78O]

Sounds like some folks like to lie to pollsters.

[DoughtyOne]

Once race. Barn burner! LMAO

Barn burner for desperation...

There are currently 31 Republican Governors and 18 Democrats. One is an independent.

Who has the biggest chance of losing a seat?

If the Republicans lost a couple it wouldn’t be a bell-weather event. They could lose six and still have the majority.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_current_United_States_governors

[Din Maker]

What the hell is wrong with the people of Kentucky?

[Impy]

suffers from soft support among voters who describe themselves as "very conservative." 15 percent of such voters cross-over and vote for Conway in the poll.

Sounds like they polled 'tards who don't know what "conservative" means.

[Norm Lenhart]

They like my own state of AZ are so used to believing GOP lies they react instead of think. Of course we have been californicated as well but there are plenty of mindless drones that will vote for McCain no matter what.

[ZULU]

Too bad Grimes DIDN’T win. We would have been better off WITHOUT McConnell.

[jazzlite]

...”Those “very conservative” voters have already voted for Conway; they have yet to elect Bevin to anything”...

I think Bevin could win because Kentuckians pay attention to things like aborting and dissecting babies and then, selling their body parts. They also might not like same sex marriage. They will connect these issues to the Democratic party. However, if Conway can convince the voters that he is in line with their thinking on this, he might win. However, Bevin seems to be very strong. I agree with others about the poll. It might be skewed.

[Republican Wildcat]

That would have been a disaster of incredible magnitude if Alison LUNDERGAN Grimes obtained U.S. Senate seat, and now knocking her out of her current position in this election should be a top priority.

[elpadre]

I know Kentucky pretty well although not living there. Kentucky Democrats outnumber Republicans by a significant amount, and vote for Dems in local elections. But they are conservative in heart and mostly vote Republican in presidential elections. That was ten+ years ago. Since the Democratic Party has become the American Socialist party, I don’t know if the old rule still stands.

[ZULU]

McConnell would have been replaced by an effective Senate Majority leader. Nothing us c worse than a RINO controlling the Senate. McConnell is THAT aweful. Ditto Boehner.

[Republican Wildcat]

Yeah, like Susan Collins or Lindsey Graham.

Reempowering the Lundergans with a U.S. Senate would have been a monumental disaster.

[Republican Wildcat]

To a certain extent, yes. Although, we have been notorious about nominating bad candidates or even no candidates at all for many local and even statewide races. That is not the case anymore.