Posted on 10/17/2015 7:25:31 PM PDT by Libloather
The nuclear deal with Iran takes effect on Sunday, setting in motion a series of events that will put President Obama’s diplomatic gamble to the test.
Iran is months away from putting in place the limits on its nuclear program that would trigger relief from economic sanctions, and an international inspection regime is only just beginning.
Still, Sunday’s "Adoption Day" represents a big moment for the Obama administration; having prevented the deal from dying in Congress, Obama officials must now see whether Iran can deliver.
“We are moving now to the implementation stage, and it is essential that we will maintain our vigilance, our unity of approach and our common purpose,” Secretary of State John Kerry said in a speech at Indiana University this week.
“Now, the Middle East remains a deeply troubled place, but every problem in the region would be made much worse if countries were to move towards nuclear weapons.”
Whether the diplomatic effort will succeed is an open question.
Critics note that Iran has shown no willingness to change its behavior after reaching the deal, even staging a ballistic missile test that the United States on Friday called a breach of international sanctions.
In the coming months, the onus will be on Iran to fulfill its end of the nuclear bargain. The country has agreed to shut off thousands of centrifuges, drastically reduce its stockpile of enriched uranium and remove the core out of the Arak heavy water reactor and fill it with concrete.
The U.S. and Europe, meanwhile, will begin issuing draft regulations and sanctions waivers that will loom over the Iranian economy. Those waivers won’t go into full effect for months, until the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) declares that Iran has met its initial obligations.
“It’s a purely symbolic thing for the Iranian domestic audience so they can say, ‘Look how prepared the U.S. and the E.U. are to lift sanctions,” said James Acton, a director of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s nuclear policy program. “But as I say, those waivers are contingent on the implementation.”
Due to the multiple complex hurdles for Iran, United Nations inspectors might not certify that it has met its obligations until next summer, according to analysts.
However, Iran might be under pressure to speed the process up, so that sanctions are lifted by the time parliamentary elections are held on Feb. 26.
“The Iranians are strongly motivated to complete the nuclear-related steps so that sanctions relief is provided,” said Gary Samore, the executive director for research at Harvard’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and a former White House arms control coordinator.
“[President Hassan] Rouhani in particular wants to get it done as quickly as possible before the Feb 2015 Majlis elections,” he added, referring to Iran’s legislature.
All the while, the situation in the broader Middle East grows more tumultuous.
Some analysts may have initially hoped that the agreement with Iran would lead to a rapprochement between Washington and Tehran. But hopes for warmer ties have dissipated, with Iran increasingly ratcheting up its rhetoric against the West.
"We negotiated with the U.S. on the nuclear issue for specific reasons,” Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in September. “[The Americans] behaved well in the talks, but we didn't and we won't allow negotiation with the Americans on other issues.”
One week ago, Iran test-fired a ballistic missile with a range long enough to reach archenemy Israel, in what the Obama administration has called a violation of a U.N. resolution. However, officials insist the launch was outside the scope of the nuclear agreement.
Additionally, the mounting crisis in Syria has given Tehran a window to step in to assist the regime of Bashar al-Assad, its neighbor and ally. This week, Iran reportedly launched a major offensive by deploying troops in Syria to prop up Assad.
That development puts Iran right alongside Russia in a Syrian crisis that many have worried is devolving into a proxy war with Iran and Russia on one side and U.S.-backed rebels on the other.
“Since the [nuclear] agreement, the Iranians seem to be going out of their way to emphasize that they preclude a broader agreement,” Samore said.
There are more points of conflict to come.
By Dec. 15, the IAEA is scheduled to release a report on its review of the possible past military dimensions of Iran’s nuclear program. Iran supplied all the requested information for that report just this week.
The process has generated outrage on Capitol Hill, since inspectors, citing longstanding IAEA policy, have declined to give lawmakers copies of agreements about how they would search Iranian facilities. That led to some allegations that Iran would effectively be allowed to inspect itself, though multiple nuclear analysts have rejected that characterization.
Because of Iran’s perceived stonewalling, that new report isn’t likely to calm any nerves.
“It’s highly likely that that report is going to say, ‘Well, we don’t know,’ ” said Patrick Clawson, the director of research at the Washington Institute for Near East policy. “The IAEA is extremely cautious about offering judgments and Iran’s been very parsimonious with information.”
“That’s good enough for the agreement to go ahead,” he added, “but I expect that there’s going to be some outraged statements from people on the Hill … about ‘How dare we put this agreement into effect when this issue has not been completely resolved.’
“But it’s very unlikely that the IAEA will be able to completely resolve that issue.”
Iran’s recent ballistic missile test was a violation of international sanctions, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Samantha Power said Friday.
Power said a U.S. probe found the new long-range ballistic missiles test-fired by Iran is “inherently capable of delivering a nuclear weapon” and thus is a “clear violation” of sanctions banning such launches, The Associated Press reported.
The ambassador’s comments are the clearest to date from the Obama administration, which had telegraphed for days it believed the Oct. 10 launch violated U.N. Security Council resolutions designed to curb Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile ambitions.
Power said in a statement that the U.S. will file a report on the incident with the U.N. Security Council.
“The Security Council prohibition on Iran’s ballistic missile activities, as well as the arms embargo, remain in place and we will continue to press the Security Council for an appropriate response to Iran’s disregard for its international obligations,” she said.
The timing of the launch ruffled feathers in Washington, in large part because it occurred less than a week before the Iran nuclear deal is set to be officially adopted.
Administration officials have insisted, however, the launch does not violate the terms of the deal, which places limits on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for relief from crippling economic sanctions.
http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/news/257149-us-iran-missile-test-was-clear-violation-of-sanctions
Is this the agreement that Iran didn’t actually ‘sign’ ?
Yep.
"Administration officials have insisted, however, the launch does not violate the terms of the deal, which places limits on Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for relief from crippling economic sanctions."
Uhmmmm.......Actually it is in direct violation of the terms of the agreement. Obama has a real habit of just making stuff up for his very short term benefit and to the detriment of our our long term survival.
Expect:
1. nukes to hit American soili within 2 years
2. Iran to renege on all of their agreements
3. Iran to blackmail nations with the nukes to allow their “refugees” to settle in their countries or else to declare caliohates
4. the Congressmen who agreed to this to have fattened bank accounts
5. Obama to move from the U.S. shortly before the first nuke hits
Expect:
1. nukes to hit American soil within 2 years
2. Iran to renege on all of their agreements
3. Iran to blackmail nations with the nukes to allow their “refugees” to settle in their countries or else to declare caliphates
4. the Congressmen who agreed to this to have fattened bank accounts
5. Obama to move from the U.S. shortly before the first nuke hits
Isn't he slated to live in Hawaii?
> 5. Obama to move from the U.S. shortly before the first nuke hits
Isn’t he slated to live in Hawaii?
Yep. Iran should be notified...: )
Iran nuclear deal takes effect (Obama gives terrorists WMD)Not to mention $1.5 billion US taxpayer dollars...We didn't even get a hostage back.
Thank you Ted Cruz and the other dimwit Senators that voted Corker for rubber stamping the Obama-Kerry/Iran nuclear deal before it was ever a deal.
Would a true (self-proclaimed constitutionalist) conservative vote away his constitutional right of Veto?...Yea I didn't think so either, but Cruz did.
Ted stood up FOR Obama, Kerry and Iran and AGAINST Israel...And he knows it.
Cruz and other lowlifes might end up with Israeli or even American blood on their hands as a result.
It would be interesting to know what they got for their vote...Koch?
Persia has been a rich and magnificent culture for millennia. At one time Persian fathers were obliged to teach their sons “to ride the horse, to speak the truth, and to shoot the bow”. How the crass and necrotic Islamic Republic of Iran arose from the descendants of the people of Cyrus and Ardashir boggles the mind, and is both depressing and frightening.
I don’t know the exact language; but the agreement allows all current technology to continue. It is my strong “belief” that they already have three nuclear weapons. Therefore the agreement would allow them to continue to build more nuclear weapons.
I think 12 is the current number of nuclear weapons (and missiles) they are targeting for when to start the war. I believe that because of the agreement, they have gone from the original plan of 8 to 12. The discovery of the tunnels into Israel was a major set back in the plan to exterminate all Israelis. There are 4 solutions to this problem. One that the Israelis can do and 3 that the US can do.
What happened to Iran saying the deal was off .. Iran was going to use their own plan.
And, did we ever actually cancel our sanctions .. did the other countries ..?? And .. did we give Iran the boatload of money ..??
America’s FIRST Muslim President wants to see Israeli Jews killed in any way possible.
It’s what Muslim terrorists do
Alternate headline: US Becomes Largest Financial Sponsor of Terror in the World - Actively Seeks Nuclear Holocaust in the Middle East
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