Skip to comments.Cruz surges in Iowa
Posted on 11/24/2015 2:12:14 PM PST by iowamark
Ted Cruz, buoyed by tea party support and the backing of much of the conservative wing of the Republican Party, has surged to a virtual tie with Donald Trump in Iowa, generating the kind of momentum his team thinks will carry him deep into primary season.
âSixty-eight days until Iowa,â said Cruz spokeswoman Catherine Frazier, when asked whether the Texas senator was peaking too soon. âItâs game time.â
A Quinnipiac University survey released Tuesday found Cruz essentially deadlocked with longtime poll-leader Donald Trump in Iowa: Trump stood at 25 percent and Cruz at 23 percent, within the margin of error. Thatâs more than double Cruzâs standing in the Oct. 22 Quinnipiac poll...
Cruzâs team was counting on this.
...focusing on fundraising, announcing last month that he had more cash on hand than any other GOP candidate. Now, his campaign is boasting one of the most robust operations in the country, with more than 100,000 volunteers nationwide and 2,500 in Iowa. Heâs also organized in every county in the first four voting states.
That level of organization has convinced leading conservatives that Cruzâs campaign can keep up with his rising numbers, and that he is not a flash-in-the-pan candidate in a cycle that has already seen a number of boom-and-bust contenders, including Scott Walker.
âTed is making all the right moves,â said Tony Perkins
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
Dateline Monday, November 7, 2016.
“Mr. Cruz...are you peaking too soon? Are you concerned you have sufficient momentum to carry you to the finish?”
Can this poll be posted any more today? This is about the 6th thread on this topic today. Please do a search before you post.
Hopefully he’s not surging too early.
I did search. This Politico article was not previously posted.
The media will spin this as fast as they can to get rid of Trump and eventually, as an alternative to losing to Hitlary, pull Cruz to the top. A President Cruz would not be the worst thing to happen but at this point, I like what Trump is saying, basically the things most other candidates are avoiding and the things most voters believe and want to hear.
Well if its 25% to 23% on caucus night Cruz will lose by 2pts.
Looks like Cruz's organization and planning has it timed well to get more conservatives pulling in the right direction.
The Caucus doesn't work that way. You have to have multiple committed delegates in each of the 99 counties and in each of the vastly more precincts. If Trump is not highly organized and Cruz is, Cruz will still beat him even if the polls remain 25-23. You can't participate if you're an independent or a disgruntled Democrat, and Iowa has a long tradition of Caucus night where the people most interested and with political know-how have the upper hand and can turn back someone else even though they have better popular support. I would bet lots of the Trump supporters have never even been to a caucus.
2012, Romney vs. Santorum, one of them "won" the popular vote, the other won the delegates.
Well if it's the yesterday's released Yougov/cbs poll on caucus night Cruz loses by 9 pts.
Oh yeah new national poll about to come out. This is what it looks like. ;-)
I can’t believe Amnesty Rubio is anywhere near the lead.
Its been fairly widely reported that Trump has the best ground team in Iowa. Chuck Laudner is his manager there and he got Santorum the win. That being said Cruz might have a chance in Iowa and maybe Texas. But trailing by 2-9pts is not going to do it. Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.
I’d like to add to your post GG2.
Here’s a very good reason that Pollsters are likely not counting who will show up to caucus for Trump. If a person who is polled saying to pollsters that he did not caucus in the last election or never has, the pollsters will not count that person as a likely voter. It’s the way these pollsters cull the list, but with Trump they would be making a very big mistake.
As may recall, Trump got about 3,000 at his rally in Burlington, Iowa filling the building to the rafters in the sparsely populated area. Santorum in 2012 won that county, Des Moines county, with only 388 caucus goers. I predict Trump at least triple Santorum’s number to win the county easily. Multiply that across the state of Iowa and Trump takes Iowa in a cake walk. So Cruz and his supporters should not get too cocky.
Chuck Laudner is his manager there and he got Santorum the win.
Laudner is a good man, but his primary job with Santorum was as his driver.
But trailing by 2-9pts is not going to do it. Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.
You do know it's still November, right?
Cruz really is the choice for anyone looking for a consistent, principled conservative. There are lots of good people on the GOP side...but if you're looking for someone to be true to conservatism, he's really the stand-out choice with no one a close second.
I don't dislike Trump. Or Carson. Or even Rubio for that matter. But line up all the issues that matter to conservatives. Ted is with us on almost every one - and FIGHTING on every one. Is he perfect? Yeah, I know....H1B visas. And I guess some here don't like where his wife works - Go figure - but he's way more with us than anyone else in this race.
By the way....if someone reading this knows of a Cruz ping list, I'd like to be on it.
Laudner is credited with getting Santorum the win. He has people in all 99 districts working for Trump. Its a good ground team.
The other problem is that this is one poll. Another Iowa poll has Cruz at 9%. So he’s got a tough row to hoe.
Show me a poll where Cruz is leading 25% to 23% and I’ll be a believer.
I agree. Nobody knows what the first time voter turnout for Trump is going to be. I feel like it will be a significant factor.