I agree with much of the reasoning in this article. Those that dismiss and underestimate Trump do so to their own demise. His support is very strong and consistent. He is not only strong in the South but blows everyone away in the NE. He’s also strong in the Midwest though places like MI and WI have been a bit tighter with Carson leading there slightly in the polls but the problem is that even in places where Trump is not leading he’s still racking up very strong double digit showings that are within the margin of error of the leader.
It is without a doubt that if Jeb Bush had the Trump numbers the GOP-E and the media would have declared the race over. Its going to be very hard to change the trajectory of this race if Trump wins Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. If Trump wins Florida and he has had consist big leads there then its over for Rubio and Bush. Cruz needs to win Iowa which he appears to have a really good shot at. Trump at this point has a near lock on New Hampshire and I work in the north east and they love Trump in a way I’ve never seen people love a Republican in that area. Trump has a big asset and that is he is animating large numbers of disaffected voters who have in the past voted infrequently or not at all. If Trump gets those voters to the polls then its going to be very hard for anyone to beat him and though I support Cruz I think its very good for the GOP. I’ve always though it was better to appeal to blue collar voters and working class voters than to water down party positions to be more like liberal Democrats and Trump is really putting that theory to the test.
Great post, #20, and I think I agree with every word.
What is interesting about this...is that this Abramoff guy, and even Klein, get this better than Brit Hume, Brett Baier, Charles Krauthammer and the WSJ editorial board, Jennifer Rubin, etc.
Normally when libs opine about Republican/conservative internal politics, they get it all wrong. These guys swerved into a lot of the truth. I think they undersell his chances a little bit - but I think many around here have gone off the deep end declaring the race over at this point. The truth is somewhere in between, and will play out in the next few months.
Thank you for actually reading with an open mind. And like you, I agree with much (but not all) of the reasoning in the piece - even as it’s written by someone I normally loathe.
Hammer hit nail, stormy. Cruz has elected to be pretty noisy about being evangelical. I never thought that would prove to be very helpful beyond the South, but that was a choice of action Cruz used, and Trump has sewn up the South, at the moment.
So, where does this go when we hit Florida? That is when the GOP usually strafe the beach with money bombs, and kill off the conservative, or the anti-Establishment front runner.
Florida and northward after that is up to Trump and Rubio.
The mood out there begs for Trump, not Rubio.