U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz arrived Jan. 4 at the first stop on a six-day tour of Iowa. The Republican presidential candidate was set to visit 28 counties by bus. (Photo by Patrick Svitek)
Posted on 01/11/2016 7:52:23 AM PST by Isara
U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz arrived Jan. 4 at the first stop on a six-day tour of Iowa. The Republican presidential candidate was set to visit 28 counties by bus. (Photo by Patrick Svitek) |
Since the Texas senator declared his candidacy in March, 40 percent of his public events have taken place in Iowa, according to a Texas Tribune analysis of his travel schedule as of Saturday. But beyond that first-test state, Cruz has held nearly a quarter of his campaign events in the so-called “SEC primary" states, a mostly southern mix of states that will host their primaries on March 1.
That breaks with tradition in GOP primary fights. In the past, presidential candidates poured almost all of their resources into Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina, the three earliest primary contests.
While other candidates are increasing their focus on those March 1 states, Cruz appears to be pursuing that strategy more aggressively, according to several people who have been following the campaigns.
“I haven’t seen anyone focus on the South the way that Cruz has,” said former Republican National Committee spokesman Doug Heye.
Heye said that's a reflection of Cruz's keen understanding of the changes to this year's primary schedule. Republicans have added three southern states — Alabama, Arkansas and delegate-rich Texas — to the March 1, or Super Tuesday, lineup, while subtracting a handful of northern states. The net result is increased nominating power concentrated in the South at a pivotal point in the primary schedule.
"We certainly have had Super Tuesdays before, but the way this lines up with the scheduled states in play and where a particular candidate could have a very strong day with a very strong impact has all come at the same time," Heye said.
The Texas Tribune assembled a database of 241 Cruz campaign events: 235 he has appeared at since launching his bid for the White House, and a handful of events scheduled in the future. That count only includes candidate forums, debates and campaign-sponsored events open to the press. It does not include private fundraisers or events Cruz attended in his official capacity as a U.S. senator.
Nothing illustrates how much is riding on Iowa for Cruz more than his travel schedule. The senator spent about 40 percent of his time on the trail in the Hawkeye State, everywhere from book signings to church services to a stop at a tractor store. Only 25 percent of his trips have taken him to New Hampshire, Nevada or South Carolina, the next three states on the primary calendar.
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Cruz made more campaign trips to Des Moines, Iowa's largest city, than anywhere else in the country. But he's also made multiple trips to smaller communities that campaign officials view as pivotal to performing well in the state's Republican caucus. On Saturday, Cruz completed a six-day bus tour of Iowa with stops in 28 towns, including his fifth visit to Sioux City, a conservative bastion that helped deliver a 2008 caucus win to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
That focus has paid off: He is now the frontrunner in Iowa with less than a month to go before the Feb. 1 caucus.
Recent history has shown that an Iowa win does not assure a Republican nomination. The last Iowa victor to secure the GOP nomination in an open race was George W. Bush in 2000. Cruz and his team are open about their aim to replicate the long game Democrat Barack Obama successfully deployed against Hillary Clinton there in the 2008 Democratic nomination fight.
After the Iowa caucus and subsequent contests in New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina comes March 1, when any Republicans left standing will compete for 624 delegates across 12 states, compared to the 133 delegates up for grabs in the earlier states.
Cruz has held 24 percent of his events thus far in March 1 states — Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia and Wyoming. Cruz signaled his focus on those states early on by kicking off his campaign with a speech at Liberty University in Virginia. He has since made at least one stop in nearly all of those states.
It’s a tactic that many Republicans are beginning to say might carry Cruz to the general election.
"If Cruz is able to do really well in the SEC primary, with the rationale that his campaign has talked about privately and he has talked about publicly," said Heye, the former RNC staffer, "this would go a long way with him getting the nomination.”
grrr I know how that happened. I hit the back button. Sorry.
I said Trump was trying to help Cruz from the start. Thank him.
That's laughable. Nobody has spent more time, to greater acclaim, in the South than Donald Trump. Trump is beating Cruz in TX and he's beating Rubio and Bush combined in FL.
I guess the best medicine tastes the worst.
Yep...see my post #23.
I am betting on a pompous loud mouthed Yankee to blow away the Establishment......
_______
It is a strange world. It will make it much easier to get Americans to rally behind a president if they are not living paycheck to paycheck. Democrat or Republican, who can improve our economy by renegotiating these trade agreements? It is hard to keep a republic intact when people feel such economic pressure.
I like Cruz but he wont win Tennessee. Just wait. Everyone wants a ball busting alpha, tired of PC BS
I never gave him much thought before this. I confess I was really surprised that he is down to earth and not self centered. I’m impressed by him, actually, and grateful that he’s running. :-) But he’s very different than a Southern gentleman.
quote “It’s a strange world. I am betting on a pompous loud mouthed Yankee to blow away the Establishment.....”
ROFL
I am in the same boat with you!
I find it hard to believe I am now so strongly for Trump, after being so strongly for Cruz.
Lol. Excellent description of Trump and the dilemna he poses.
I'm still a Cruzer, just sent in another donation, but I really do love what the Donald is doing to the msm and the gope.
My daughter is a Trumpster, and so we watch many of Trump rallies and while they are very repetitive, he really gets the crowd jazzed up.
The excitement is real.
“Trump is beating Cruz in TX”
I live in TX and can assure you that Cruz will win TX in a landslide.
“Trump will sweep the South in the primaries.”
Trump will lose TX by a mile. I live here and so do all of my family and friends and nobody is sold on Trump except the Debra Medina holdouts and they don’t have enough votes. Sorry...
“Trump will lose TX by a mile.”
We’ll see, won’t we. Will get back to you after the results, lol.
I have some pretty large circles that I deal with and I have yet to meet a Trump supporter in person. I have yet to meet anyone that evens knows a Trump supporter in person. Registered Republicans, which are the only ones able to vote in the TX primary, are overwhelmingly supporting Cruz right now from everything that I’ve seen (local polls, signs, comments, etc).
The democrat Cruz ran against in Texas for the senate beat him bad in the hispanic vote, getting 60% of hispanic support compared to 40% for Cruz. His last name might be Cruz, but his support is mainly white conservatives. Maybe if he spoke Spanish he would appeal to Texas hispanics, but then again I know plenty of Texas hispanics that can’t speak a word of Spanish.
That’s now what the polls are saying.
“40% for Cruz”
Keep in mind that most of the Hispanics are registered DEMOCRATS and can’t vote in the REPUBLICAN primaries so your comparison is pointless.
Trump may be able to win in a general election in TX if democrats (aka Hispanics) could vote for him, but Trump will not win the primary because the primary is restricted to registered republicans only.
“That’s now what the polls are saying”
Not sure if you were agreeing or disagreeing, but local polls are showing that, among registered republicans, which are the only votes that matter in the TX primary, Cruz is leading by a wide margin.
“The democrat Cruz ran against in Texas for the senate beat him bad in the hispanic vote”
Yet, Cruz still had a landslide victory in that race...
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