U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz arrived Jan. 4 at the first stop on a six-day tour of Iowa. The Republican presidential candidate was set to visit 28 counties by bus. (Photo by Patrick Svitek)
Posted on 01/11/2016 7:52:23 AM PST by Isara
U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz arrived Jan. 4 at the first stop on a six-day tour of Iowa. The Republican presidential candidate was set to visit 28 counties by bus. (Photo by Patrick Svitek) |
Since the Texas senator declared his candidacy in March, 40 percent of his public events have taken place in Iowa, according to a Texas Tribune analysis of his travel schedule as of Saturday. But beyond that first-test state, Cruz has held nearly a quarter of his campaign events in the so-called “SEC primary" states, a mostly southern mix of states that will host their primaries on March 1.
That breaks with tradition in GOP primary fights. In the past, presidential candidates poured almost all of their resources into Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina, the three earliest primary contests.
While other candidates are increasing their focus on those March 1 states, Cruz appears to be pursuing that strategy more aggressively, according to several people who have been following the campaigns.
“I haven’t seen anyone focus on the South the way that Cruz has,” said former Republican National Committee spokesman Doug Heye.
Heye said that's a reflection of Cruz's keen understanding of the changes to this year's primary schedule. Republicans have added three southern states — Alabama, Arkansas and delegate-rich Texas — to the March 1, or Super Tuesday, lineup, while subtracting a handful of northern states. The net result is increased nominating power concentrated in the South at a pivotal point in the primary schedule.
"We certainly have had Super Tuesdays before, but the way this lines up with the scheduled states in play and where a particular candidate could have a very strong day with a very strong impact has all come at the same time," Heye said.
The Texas Tribune assembled a database of 241 Cruz campaign events: 235 he has appeared at since launching his bid for the White House, and a handful of events scheduled in the future. That count only includes candidate forums, debates and campaign-sponsored events open to the press. It does not include private fundraisers or events Cruz attended in his official capacity as a U.S. senator.
Nothing illustrates how much is riding on Iowa for Cruz more than his travel schedule. The senator spent about 40 percent of his time on the trail in the Hawkeye State, everywhere from book signings to church services to a stop at a tractor store. Only 25 percent of his trips have taken him to New Hampshire, Nevada or South Carolina, the next three states on the primary calendar.
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Cruz made more campaign trips to Des Moines, Iowa's largest city, than anywhere else in the country. But he's also made multiple trips to smaller communities that campaign officials view as pivotal to performing well in the state's Republican caucus. On Saturday, Cruz completed a six-day bus tour of Iowa with stops in 28 towns, including his fifth visit to Sioux City, a conservative bastion that helped deliver a 2008 caucus win to former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee.
That focus has paid off: He is now the frontrunner in Iowa with less than a month to go before the Feb. 1 caucus.
Recent history has shown that an Iowa win does not assure a Republican nomination. The last Iowa victor to secure the GOP nomination in an open race was George W. Bush in 2000. Cruz and his team are open about their aim to replicate the long game Democrat Barack Obama successfully deployed against Hillary Clinton there in the 2008 Democratic nomination fight.
After the Iowa caucus and subsequent contests in New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina comes March 1, when any Republicans left standing will compete for 624 delegates across 12 states, compared to the 133 delegates up for grabs in the earlier states.
Cruz has held 24 percent of his events thus far in March 1 states — Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Vermont, Virginia and Wyoming. Cruz signaled his focus on those states early on by kicking off his campaign with a speech at Liberty University in Virginia. He has since made at least one stop in nearly all of those states.
It’s a tactic that many Republicans are beginning to say might carry Cruz to the general election.
"If Cruz is able to do really well in the SEC primary, with the rationale that his campaign has talked about privately and he has talked about publicly," said Heye, the former RNC staffer, "this would go a long way with him getting the nomination.”
You know what this reminds me of?
The libs threats to sue Cruz re: NBC is exactly what they did to Sarah Palin. They were filing lawsuit after lawsuit which the Alaskan citizens would have had to pay for her defense. They kept her so tied up in litigation, she resigned because they in essence kept her from governing her state. Then they called her a quitter.
Their tactics are so vile, so typical of commies. That’s what they would do to Cruz if he prevails.
Yes I can tell you they would tear him a new one.
GA is all in for Trump as well as the rest of the SEC. You never even hear Cruz’s name. Everybody is talking about Trump.
I live in Sugar Land just southwest of Houston. We have a lot of Cruz supporters here.
22 more days....I hope those Iowa Trump supporters overwhelm the GOP elitists with a victory so stunning they will know.... FEAR : )
“GA is all in for Trump”...
Good for you. Good thing TX has a lot more delegates. LOL
Is Trump still leading in the TX polls?
Yes, in the national polls, which are useless based on how they’re determined. Locally, Cruz is leading by a large margin since we have closed primaries. Nobody here likes Trump much, I guess, because I have yet to meet anyone that supports Trump or meet anyone that even knows of anyone supporting Trump. I’ll be surprised if Trump breaks 20% in the primaries. Texas is Cruz Country!
Oh, and to clarify. Trump is leading in two of the 15 national TX polls by only 2% which is a statistical tie and the tie usually goes to the incumbent. Cruz is leading in the other polls so it just depends on which polls you want to cite.
I followed that tour and it was amazing how Cruz worked it and the crowds that came out to see him....working as he did in Iowa...small groups grassroots events, talking about the issues people are concerned about.
So I'm not worried about the south...he'll do fine but is already in many states most aren't "watching" for...his grassroots people, working for him, are in the thousands across the nation....fun to watch!
New Hampshire
It’s kinda crazy that people here would turn on our most reliable conservative friends for years and years ... Rush Limbaugh and Mark Levin ... if they say a single word of criticism about Trump.
With friends like y’all ...
It’s really nothing new...
Over the years a few notables have posted here. We lose them during election seasons. It’s become a fact of nature and FR.
Rush has turned me off. I prefer Jeff Kuhner’s show! He’s a great conservative, family man, defender of our Constitution, and also from Canada, but is now a us citizen. His show is on weekdays noon to 3 since he went national out of Boston.
Nice. I'm waiting for Carson to drop out. Hopefully after NH. The race will tighten up overnight.
The reason I ask is because I would expect Cruz to win his own state but the last poll for TX I saw Trump had a pretty good lead. So far other than TX Iowa seems to be the only place Cruz is competitive so I don’t see a path for him to the nomination.
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