Ted Cruz Chases Trump's Lead In New Iowa Poll (Trump 31%, Cruz 29%)

TPM ^ | January 11, 2016 | Caitlin Cruz

[Red Steel]

Real estate mogul Donald Trump maintained a slight lead in Iowa in a Quinnipiac University poll released Monday afternoon, with rival Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) trailing him by just 2 points among likely Republican caucusgoers.

Trump polled at 31 percent to Cruz's 29 percent. That's a 3-point jump for Trump and a 2-point jump for Cruz since the last Quinnipiac poll in December.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) rose by a point to take third place at 15 percent.

Retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, once a darling of Iowa's crucial evangelical voting bloc, polled at 7 percent. That's a 3-point decline since the December poll.

The Iowa caucuses are Feb. 1. Forty-six percent of those surveyed who picked a candidate said they weren't firm in their choice.

The poll was conducted from Jan. 5-10 among 602 likely Republican caucusgoers in Iowa by live calls to landlines and cell phones. The margin of error was 4 percentage points.

[ilgipper]

Is that the second showing a Trump tie or lead? Interesting and definitely not expected.

[Greetings_Puny_Humans]

This is Quinnipiac, which traditionally fudges its numbers so people other than Trump can have the lead. The fact they haven’t put out a poll since early December, and the fact they couldn’t put Cruz in the lead, should be seen as a sign of significant trouble for everybody’s favorite Canuckistinian.

[ObozoMustGo2012]

Someone on FR predicted a swing back to Trump leading as we approached Iowa. Considering Q’s “unfriendliness” in past polls, that swing is underway....

[Dr. Sivana]

Margin of Error of 4 points. On the other hand, it IS a poll of “likely Republican caucus goers”, which should be much more reliable than the “registered Republican” polls that sometimes pop up.

[Red Badger]

Past winners of Iowa caucuses:

http://caucuses.desmoinesregister.com/caucus-history-past-years-results/

[ObozoMustGo2012]

Whats the over/under of possible percentage of those polled are in truth Trump supporters, but gave a different answer to the pollsters?

[dynoman]

It's expected, depending on who you listen too.

This is a must watch;

To: dynoman

Phyllis Schlafly is amazing. Some great Freeper turned me on to the The Barry Goldwater 1964 Campaign 50th Anniversary Forum. We are watching history repeat itself.

If you have 9 minutes watch from 6:10- 15:39 of this video with Schlafly describing how the establishment of the Republican Party takes out grassroots candidates. This is really timely...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=1q_pbiFiKC8#t=369

---

There is an article posted calling Trump a bigot and racist, there are FR members calling Trump and his supporters fascists. (Yes that happened here on FR.)

Contrast that with this;

Phyllis Schlafly Makes the Case for President Trump: "Only Hope to Defeat the Kingmakers"http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3382220/posts

Phyllis Schlafly Makes the Case for President Trump: "Only Hope to Defeat the Kingmakers" http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3382132/posts

Let me see, agree with illogical and irrational rabid anit- Trump "conservatives", even here on FR, or agree with Phyllis Schlafly. Hmmmm. That is a tough decision.

Like the thread "Trump says NK leader amazing". No he didn't, Trump said his ability to execute a takeover at such a young age is amazing. Trump said the guy is a maniac. So why are so called "conservatives" mis-representing what Trump said?? Is it a mistake because they can't follow simple conversation? Or is it deliberate?? Either one is a logical fatal flaw.

[stocksthatgoup]

Calling Jeb! Pick up one of the white courtesy phones.

[Yashcheritsiy]

Uh oh. Somebody in the Cruz camp better start taking seriously those rumours that Trump was born in Kenya to Indonesian illegal immigrants.

[Red Badger]

Same numbers as George Bush and Ronald Reagan in 1980.............

[stocksthatgoup]

Just static.

[dynoman]

hot links

https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=1q_pbiFiKC8#t=369

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3382220/posts

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3382132/posts

[jmaroneps37]

Now comes the “Q polls are crap (except when Cruz is ahead) bleating.

[spokeshave]

It's expected, depending on who you listen too.

This is not the unexpected result you expected.

[Stentor]

...everybody's favorite Canuckistinian

I hate myself for laughing. He is more likely a citizen of the world.

[Red Steel]

What’s working in Trump’s favor here is that there is a head Q-Poll pollster who is pretty sarcastic about not liking Trump. It’s a built in TDS bias over at Quinnipiac.

[Reagan Disciple]

All polls are junk unless Trump is leading...........so they say.

I would vote for Trump if he got the nod for sure but his followers here are unbearable.

[The Iceman Cometh]

...everybody's favorite Canuckistinian

I demand that two plates be put before Ted Cruz. One plate with Canadian bacon and the other with regular bacon.

We'll see where Ted's loyalties really are. ;-)

[dragnet2]

Didn’t the folks in Iowa vote for Obama last time?

If they go against Trump, I wouldn’t be surprised. After that, Trump wins in a historic landslide. It’s coming like a tsunami.