Posted on 01/31/2016 11:39:50 AM PST by Red Steel
One more day to the Iowa Caucuses - and the public is pretty sure they know what will happen. Voters aren't necessarily happy about the influence the first caucus and primary states hold. Still, many potential voters admit that what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire will be important in deciding how they will cast their ballot.
In the latest national Economist/YouGov Poll, pluralities of both Republicans and Democrats think Iowa and New Hampshire have too much influence on who wins the parties' presidential nominations.
Half the public isn't sure whether the Iowa-New Hampshire dominance needs to change, and partisans are closely divided on whether Iowa and New Hampshire should remain as the first-in-the-nation, or whether other states should take that position.
Still, the results in Iowa and New Hampshire will matter to many voters. A majority of Democrats and more than four in ten Republicans say what happens in those two states will be important in deciding how they will vote for President.
Americans are pretty sure they know what to expect on Monday night, and it will be a victory for the frontrunners. By far, Republican primary voters expect Donald Trump to prevail in the caucuses, while Democratic voters see a Hillary Clinton win coming. As for New Hampshire, Republican voters again see a big Trump victory, while Democratic voters narrowly see Sanders, who comes from neighboring Vermont, as who has been leading in New Hampshire polls, as the winner.
Republicans see something - or at least hope for something - very different happening on the Democratic side. They expect Sanders to take both events: by 49% to 23% they think the Vermont Senator will carry the Iowa caucuses over Clinton, and by 55% to 16% they think he will do the same in New Hampshire. This may reflect their wish for Sanders to defeat Clinton, who is extremely unpopular with Republicans, or more interest in the polls, which have generally shown a close race in Iowa and a large Sanders lead in New Hampshire.
Of course, public opinion on who will win has always been affected by opinion polls and campaign events. Clinton and Trump remain in front nationally when their respective partisans are asked who will win each party’s nomination, but they also rank first for electability. 82% of Republican primary voters say Trump could win in the fall, 90% of Democratic voters believe Clinton could win.
Donald Trump's best numbers yet
In national preference, Trump leads his closest rival, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, by more than two-to-one among Republican who say they will participate in the presidential selection process in their own state. 43% is Trump's highest level of support recorded so far in YouGov/Economist Polls on the race.
Clinton's lead over Sanders in preference with Democratic voters nationwide is much smaller.
Anger at the entire process is helping fuel two candidacies - those of Donald Trump's and Bernie Sanders. More than three in four Republicans agree with the statement that they are "mad as hell as not going to take it anymore," compared with 54% of Democrats. (Overall anger at the system is higher today than in 1992, when CBS News asked this question). Nine in ten Trump supporters are "mad as hell."
On the Democratic side, while there may be less anger, those primary voters who are angry are as likely to support Sanders as they are to support Clinton. Those who aren't angry favor Clinton by more than two to one.
Is this a + or a - ???
Well I fully expected to win the powerball...I suppose I should have purchased a ticket though...
Still feel cocky?
I do.
Only 5000 votes separated Cruz from Trump.
5,000 votes don’t speak for the rest of America.
Let’s see how things shake out in NH and SC.
My cockiness might decline or grow depending on the
outcome in NH and SC.
Only one problem. Everyone, all pundits from FOX to CNN, said that if the turn out is a record it will be huge for Trump and Rubio an very bad for Cruz. Even the vast number of Trumpets here on FR said the same thing.
I watched and listened how they pointed out a high number of new voters would hurt Cruz and that Rubio could take second and Cruz third, with trump winning by 15% or more.
So, we get a record 183,000 voters in the Republican caucus, and what happened? Well, Cruz received a record number of votes. To me, that is Huge because he should have came in third, not first.
Spin it how you want, I go by what everyone said it would happen. Cruz was only supposed to win if the turn out was low.
Sorry, but Trump got trumped
What am I spinning?
Cruz won last night in a VERY evangelical state.
He won by 6000 votes.
6000 Iowa voters will NOT determine the outcome in other states.
In fact if you divide the number of votes Ted won by(6000)
by the number of caucus locations(1600)
Ted only won by 3.75 votes per caucus location.
Not that impressive for a state made for Cruz.
Iowa does not matter. No other state is like it.
Trump did fine last night for a novice....with zero political background!!! Trump received more then 45,000 votes, the highest ever attained by a Republican other then Ted Cruz who literally lived in Iowa for months!!! Trump will do OK...he is never a quitter!!!
Trump is a political newbie in hostile territory. He came in a strong second. Frankly he looked pretty happy last night to me. Now he takes NH, SC and NV. Boom, boom, boom and then Fla.
When you and all your friends said he would and could not win.
Wow. For the past two Months you guys are flying around FR claiming that after Trump wins Iowa, it will be over and he will run the table.
Now he loses, and you are like, DUH!
Too funny. You guys are beginning to sound like the left after Al Gore lost to Bush.
As for the state made for Cruz, you may have forgot something, there were three staunch conservative Christians fighting for the evangelical vote. Plus, Cruz was the only one to be publicly against ethanol subsidies. The the reason he actually lost many farmland areas to Rubio.
So I am not shocked it was that tight. You just cannot accept the fact that trump got stumped. When he was supposed to win by 15% or more over the 2nd place finisher. AHH, which became him.
LOL
I guess I was right. It was a worthless poll.
Bummer. LOL
I guess I was right. The article and the poll was worthless.
Don’t you hate it when something you cling to is proven to be worthless?
Oh wait, now you will claim it was such a small win.
When every trump supporter on this post called Ted finished.
Oops, maybe you all should await the vote before bragging.
By the way, no bragging by me ahead of the NH vote, just positive feelings for a good show.
Do you know how to read?
Cruz beat Trump in Iowa. The Sun rose this morning.
And life went on.
It is a very evangelical state.
I’m surprised Trump pulled in 21% evangelicals.
Celebrate your victory. And then it’s onward to NH.
They were ALL worthless. Emerson was an accident. I think all polling took a big hit Monday.
One good thing is that the twerp Silver also was wrong.
I think Trump is in great shpae. I do not worry for one second about Ted Cruz....IMHO, he is a limited candidate with not broad acceptance. The team of Ted Cruz & Glenn Beck tells it all!!! and DJT is correct Ted Cruz has a hateful, nasty streak...........and, it shows broadly!!!
Ya know......that Iowa caucus for both the Republicans and Democrats is badly flawed, not to mention, not tightly controlled administatively. Every time they go through it....they mess it up!!! Wise up, Iowa and dump it....Go back to a normal voting primatry. That Clinton/Sanders gig was a bad joke!!!
The good news is that is already forgotten, today!!!
I agree. Trump needs to forget about Cruz and start attacking Rubio who the GOPe and the MSM are going to be pimping day and night from now on.
Yes sweet ain’t it?
Course, there goes any argument that Cruz “does better” against Cankles than Trump cuz we can’t believe the polls.
I’ll give you that.
And that is why they play the game.
In this case vote
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