Posted on 02/29/2016 11:56:37 AM PST by blam
DeviantInvestor
Feburary 29, 2016
What will the price of silver be in 2021? You can find articles suggesting the price of silver will be over $1,000 and under $10. Perhaps this is the wrong question.
A better approach: The global financial system is increasingly unstable and fragile, more so than in 2008. The important question is: How will governments, central banks and financial systems respond to the ongoing crisis? Future prices for silver are dependent upon the answer to that question. I suggest three possible scenarios.
Scenario One – status quo: The next five years could look much like the last 20 years. Politicians spend too much money, debt expands exponentially, central banks monetize debt and desperately inflate and reflate bubbles to maintain their power and continue the transfer of wealth from the many to the few. This is “status quo” or “more of the same” and indicates that silver prices will rise substantially, but not in a hyperinflation.
Scenario Two – deflationary crash: Deflationary forces overwhelm the financial system and central bankers and politicians can’t or won’t reverse those deflationary forces. In that scenario most paper assets crash while the purchasing power of silver increases far more. Central bankers will do almost anything to avoid this scenario.
Scenario Three – deflation and hyperinflation: Deflationary forces temporarily crash the financial system (signs are visible in 2016-Q1), and eventually central bankers and governments inflate currencies, possibly to hyperinflationary levels in their heavy-handed reaction. In this scenario silver prices will go into the stratosphere – perhaps $150, or $1,500, or $15,000 per ounce. The ultimate silver price in a hyperinflationary scenario is unpredictable since hyperinflationary forces feed upon themselves and destroy purchasing power unpredictably. Gold reached nearly 100 trillion Weimar Marks per ounce in 1923.
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at marketoracle.co.uk ...
$15,000 per ounce?
Who would want the worthless dolars offered for the silver?
I got over a million Brazilian Real in change for a $5.
It would be better to look at what the buying power of silver would be in 5 years, while keeping in mind that silver only has buying power for as long as the government allows it to be held and traded by individuals.
Silver is a good hedge against inflation.
Too bad the economic problem we are experiencing is DEFLATION.
Silver is going to hat sizes.
Silver will be priced at 14 bottlecaps per ounce in five years, inasmuch as bottlecaps are the new preferred currency the radiation-soaked wasteland of Fallout 4.
It sure is challenging to sort through the blather. There's real information (Coinflation for base value of silver coins, for example), there's "news" articles with an agenda to sell stuff, and there are coin dealers who exploit collectors, big time.
Please, help me with any information you can add to where I'm at. Sometimes, my head is spinning as I sort through it all!
“Silver is going to hat sizes.”
As a fairly long term investor and owner of silver, I think that is the most likely outcome. I own plenty of it. I’m not very bullish on it at all. I sold 2/3rd of my silver for 38.50 and it was among the better trades I’ve ever done.
Short answer, nobody knows. Whoever guesses right will be calling himself a genius and selling a lot of books.
hey dont worry
we are going currencyless
with the mark of the beast on our foreheads.......
AND
negative interest rates to boot...... the bank charges you to store currency.....
GOOD LUCK WITH PRECIOUS METALS IN A TOTALITARIAN ENVIRONMENT ...
The nazi regime executed a policy of looting the assets of its victims to finance the war, collecting the looted assets in central depositories. The occasional transfer of gold in return for currency took place in collusion with many individual collaborative institutions. Private citizens were robbed of gold and precious metals...
I urge you to look at the supply demand statistics for silver before you go for it...
and be aware central banks MANIPULATE THE PRICE OF PRECIOUS METALS....
If the price goes up, chances are the value of your purchases will remain stable.
If you are a place where fiat is raging, you would probably still have to convert to fiat to buy stuff. Gold and silver are stores of value. I would be happy if it held its value for ever. I would only worry about the carrying cost.
Although the thing with silver money is that there are plenty of us who remember using it to buy bread.
Re: the miners.
Silver is often times mined with other metals. As the commodities continue to crash, just mining silver may not be viable.
I for one do not agree that Ag prices are artificially low. Prices are what they are. Is oil artificially low? I pose the rhetorical question to have you examine your idea that prices are low. Who says? Whom is your argument with?
Since I have silver weasels calling me all the time, I constantly argue that the production cost of silver is ZERO. Other than Hecla, there is no such thing as a silver mine. All silver comes from the mining of tin and zinc or other base metals. Or scrap.
It costs about a buck for the refiner to refine, then coin or cast an ounce of silver into a recognizable form. More, obviously for Eagles, which are a gorgeous coin and everybody should have “a few”.
And Dorthy can get her right shoes back at the same time. Sadly the idea of a hard currency at this point is very near impossibility unless we went to a U238 standard.. or iridium
Do Not Boast About Tomorrow
Letter of James
13 Come now, you who say, “Today or tomorrow we will go to such and such a city, spend a year there, buy and sell, and make a profit”;
14 whereas you do not know what will happen tomorrow. For what is your life?
It is even a vapor that appears for a little time and then vanishes away.
15 Instead you ought to say, “If the Lord wills, we shall live and do this or that.”
16 But now you boast in your arrogance. All such boasting is evil.
17 Therefore, to him who knows to do good and does not do it, to him it is sin.
Nelson, Thomas (2009-02-18). Holy Bible, New King James Version (NKJV) (p. 1171). Thomas Nelson. Kindle Edition.
No one has a clue what that price will be in 5 years.
Commercial use of silver could go away given the pace of technological advances. New discoveries could lower the price in a way similar to oil and gas.
This guy was very highly thought of 40 years ago:
Paul Erlich down the prediction trainwreck path…
‘India couldn’t possibly feed two hundred million more people by 1980.’
- Paul Erlich, The Population Bomb, 1968
‘By the year 2000 the United Kingdom will be simply a small group of impoverished islands, inhabited by some 70 million hungry people … If I were a gambler, I would take even money that England will not exist in the year 2000.’
- Paul Erlich, 1971
Erlich famously lost a bet that commodity prices such as gold and silver would skyrocket over a 10 year period. Every commodity on the list went down in price, not up.
Thank you. That makes sense, and it’s why silver mines have shut down, but there’s still silver.
My mortgage is denominated in those dollars, I’d cough up ~12 of my ounces for that much mortgage paying off worthless script in a heartbeat. It’s nice to think i might have found enough to do that detecting this past weekend :-)
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