If Trump loses both, then the momentum will start to turn against him. That said, he will not be getting out and he has plenty of chances to pick up delegates in the Northeast and elsewhere. If Trump wins just FL or Ohio, the momentum will be on his side going forward that will make him unstoppable.
The bottom line is that by March 15, we will have a much better idea of what will happen.
I agree. By March 15th things are going to be a lot more clear.
Yesterday made them clearer IMHO..
Carson is out. Kasich is waiting for Ohio. Rubio did not do very well, despite winning Minnesota. All of his hopes rest in Florida now and he looks to be losing it big time.
Cruz is the only one at this point, IMHO, with any chance at all of competing with Trump...and truth be told, it is a small chance.
As it is, I fully expect Trump to win FL pretty big, and that will end any hope at all for Rubio...though he may stay in as a spoiler anyway. But the only person he can possible “spoilt” at that point if Cruz...and it might not make any differences in any case.
Kasich will give Trump a run in Ohio...no doubt about that. But even if he wins...it’s just a small speed bump to Trump, and in all likelihood, it is Kasich’s last hoorah and only win.
“A lot will come down to March 15 and the winner take all races in FL and Ohio. If Trump takes FL, Rubio is out. If he takes Ohio, Kasich is out. If he takes both, the race is over for all intents and purposes.
If Trump loses both, then the momentum will start to turn against him. That said, he will not be getting out and he has plenty of chances to pick up delegates in the Northeast and elsewhere. If Trump wins just FL or Ohio, the momentum will be on his side going forward that will make him unstoppable.
The bottom line is that by March 15, we will have a much better idea of what will happen.”
In Ohio, there are a lot of industrial, and former industrial, workers. They are JUST the people that are apt to support a guy against unlimited immigration and bad trade deals. If the reports are true, Trump leads by about 4 points over Kasich. That’s pretty narrow, possibly within the MOE...BUUUUT, Carson just left the race, and I think that between Trump and Kasich, Trump will get the lion’s share of those new votes. Ohio is 66 delegates, and another of the 8 states.
If Trump gets both Florida and Ohio, he not only gets 165 delegates and 2 states, he gets momentum AND the reputation of a candidate-slayer. The only one left then will be Cruz. I don’t believe that Cruz can successfully challenge Trump, not only because of the big disadvantage in delegates at that point, and the momentum factor, but also because Cruz has more narrow appeal to voters.
The race will, IMHO, be effectively over by the end of March.
FYI, here’s a great source on the Republican primaries: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016