[kingu]

Of course, like most freepers, I merely skimmed your data without actually reading everything, so please jump down my throat if I missed it, but do you also analyze the results in states Romney lost (or won) comparing the DNC vs GOP vote percentages?

I mean, at the end of the day, while delegates are great, the ultimate prize is the White House, and knowing how candidates are performing not just in battleground states, but in ‘safe’ states would be important data for future prediction.

[Jeff Head]

Since these are primaries, it is not too straight forward to make those comparisons...but we do have some evidence.

A couple of those.

Trump is bringing in A LOT of people. He is getting democrats to cross over and vote for him. Some of that may be political in terms of some hoping to make him the nominee...but I know for a fact that some of it is democrats who are sick of the establishment on both sides and believe Trump will shake all of that up.

In addition, his appeal to independents is strong.

Also,and I think this is important, IMHO it is very likely that Trump will put places like New York and other states where the GOP has not won there since Reagan, in play.

I will talk more about that as we get to those states.

But a clear trend is that the GOP is attracting a lot more excitement and voters in 2016. Right now there is a 60-40 split in terms of overall actual turnout. And that bodes very well too if they will also show up in November.