It’s true I’ve never been directly involved, but from what I’ve read, the overall result is that 70% of delegates are not selected by the campaigns. I don’t remember where I read the 70% figure so maybe it was off-base. I hope so.
From Wiki:
“At least in name, superdelegates are not involved in the Republican Party nomination process. There are delegates to the Republican National Convention that are seated automatically, but they are limited to three per state, consisting of the state chairsperson and two district-level committee members.”
That means there will be either 150 or 165 (depending on whether the territories are included or just states) delegates that are seated and “committed” to a candidate and the candidate had no say in their selection. If Trump wins a total of 35 primaries, there could be 105 delegates that are “his” but have no real loyalty to him. There are many other cases where local procedures for delegate selection can result in delegates with no loyalty to their candidate. 165 is a far cry from 70%, but it is still a big chunk of delegates that we KNOW the candidate had no choice over.
It is a mess. A much more transparent process would simply allow the candidate to choose all of his own delegates from each state.
Yes, some states may send loyal delegates, but others will send almost entire delegations that feel they are “free agents” outside that single first vote they are bound to. On all other matters, like changes to Rule 40B, they may feel free to vote against “their” candidate’s interests.
Remember that Trump is the ONLY candidate that currently meets the “more than 50% of delegates from 8 states” requirement to be a nominee. It is entirely possibly that Cruz will not win more than 50% of delegates in any more states, and Kasick definitely won’t meet the 8 state minimum. So if Rule 40B remains in place, Trump will be the only allowed choice even if he falls short of 1237 delegates. If that is the case, then loyal Trump delegates would fight any change to Rule 40B and we’ll see if they do.
I'm doubt we'll see Rule 40B stick around anyways. It's only been in effect one primary prior to this, and is obviously an unfair rule designed to tamper with the process by invalidating fairly won delegates. And of course it also blocks the establishment from putting forth a compromise candidate.
I've heard that Cruz was far more prepared for a floor fight before Trump even began to think about it, and that his celebrated ground game has stayed around in states after voting to try to influence the delegate selection to get pro-Cruz people in the state delegations. Whereas, I've hear that Trump was so confident of reaching 1237, that until recently, he just packed up and moved on after each state.