Posted on 03/17/2016 8:35:07 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
If this poll accurately reflects the US electorate, get ready for the mother of all gender gaps (so to speak) in November if Donald Trump wins the Republican presidential nomination. The frontrunner has a major problem with women, according to this Reuters-Ipsos poll conducted over the first half of March, and it has gotten worse rather than better over the last six months. Half of all women have a “very unfavorable” view of Trump, in an election that could pit him against the first female major-party nominee:
Real estate billionaire Donald Trump’s coarse rhetoric has won him some fans, but there’s at least one large group in America that is increasingly unimpressed: women.
Half of U.S. women say they have a “very unfavorable” view of the front-runner for the Republican presidential nomination, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling, up from the 40 percent who felt that way in October. The survey was taken from March 1-15, and included 5,400 respondents.
The rise in anti-Trump sentiment among women could pose a problem for the New York billionaire in his quest for the White House. Women form just over half of the U.S. population, and they have turned out at higher rates than men in every election since 1996, according to the U.S. Census Bureau.
“If the presidential election were tomorrow, women would be a big problem for Trump,” Republican strategist David Carney said. “But he has time to fix it.”
In head-to-head polling, Reuters puts the gender gap between Trump and Hillary Clinton into double digits:
If the GOP frontrunner were to run against Democratic hopeful Hillary Clinton in the general election, likely women voters would support Clinton over Trump by nearly 14 percentage points, according to the March polling data. Among men, Clinton would win by about 5 percentage points.
I asked Reuters for a statement on methodology, and they provided this:
Margin of error: The credibility interval for our polls on women who give Trump the lowest level of favorability – aka “very unfavorable” – is 1.9 percentage points in March and 1.6 percentage points in October.
Sample sizes and dates: The March poll included 3,477 responses from March 1 to March 15. The October poll included 5,093 responses from Oct. 1 to Oct. 31.
It’s an interesting result, especially since the same polling data for Reuters’ national tracking poll suggests that Trump does better among women at the moment than his Republican rivals in the GOP primaries, at least. Filtering down to March 1-15 and selecting women only across all political affiliations, a third of 1,997 respondents support Trump for the GOP nomination, while only 16% support Ted Cruz. Nearly 30% wouldn’t vote at all. When narrowed further to only Republican and independent voters (1,632 respondents), Trump gets 39%, Cruz gets 18.3%, and 18.9% wouldn’t vote at all. (Note that this poll included Marco Rubio and Ben Carson for at least part of the period.)
Even without the gender gap, Trump has major favorability issues in Reuters’ tracking polls. Once again filtering for those who participated in 2012, 39.5% of respondents view him very unfavorably, 6.9% somewhat unfavorably, and another 9.2% lean toward unfavorable, for a total unfavorability of 55.6%. He gets only 18.2% for “very favorable,” with a total favorability of 44.4%.
However, when it comes to the head-to-head matchup, the tracking poll shows Trump a distant second to Hillary, 41.1/34, with a quarter of respondents declaring that they’ll skip the election altogether. That narrows slightly when filtering out all those who didn’t vote for either Barack Obama or Mitt Romney in 2012, but Hillary still leads 46.2/39.7, and 14% of those who voted in 2012 say they won’t be back in 2016. Among men who voted in 2012, Hillary only has a slight edge, 44/43.5, but among women who voted in 2012, it expands to 48.5/35.8.
Don’t forget that the gender gap in 2012 was much narrower. Women made up 53% of the electorate and broke 55/44 for Obama, while men went for Romney 52/45 for a net gap of -4 for the GOP. Right now, we’d be looking at a net gap of -13.2 among those who voted in 2012. That has the makings of a disaster for Republicans in November if it doesn’t change, one that could roll well down the ballot.
There is certainly time to fix this, and head-to-head polling is still somewhat fraught at this stage with other emotional baggage from the primaries. Also, Reuters does not have similar data readily available to compare Trump against Ted Cruz or John Kasich, which makes it a little tough to argue on a data basis that either would substantially improve the GOP’s chances in the fall. However, this is still a big red flag for Republicans, especially given that they will likely face off against a woman at the top of the opposing ticket.
And over half the men feel the same of Hillary, only our Girly Society, doesn’t take what men think into account.
I’ve heard women talk about not liking Trump. Unfortunately, a good many of the women in this country are a whole lot WORSE than Trump when it comes to being Katty about other women. Any HONEST woman knows it.
The other half don’t.
I beleive if you polled 500 women about the Kadassians probably 450 of them would say how ridiculous they are, how vain and self centered and full of themselves and yadda yadda yadda. Very negative level of snark. But they still tune in to the reality shows and they buy the magazines with them on the cover.
If they all say "Trump is uncivil, nasty, and childish" yet they turn up and vote for him, who cares? that's the question, will they DO differently than they SAY? As you did, by the way.
Problem: The media is demagoging Trump in every way they can as anti-woman. Dems are always looking at the long game. They can sacrifice Hillary (a promised Presidential Pardon).
When, and not if, Hillary is indicted, Warren or another woman of like socialist persuasion will arrive on the scene along with Biden to rescue the Democrat Party.
Once Conservatives have eaten their own, we will again have the Anti-woman election that the Dems have wanted. All of this is a lie, but Dems never have problems with lies, as long as it steadily moves toward the ultimate goal of our Republic's destruction.
All the socialist front groups are being energized by false narratives
But they like the cackling witch?
I didn’t see a reference to dykes in the article, but maybe I missed it.
I’ve got 4 sisters and they’re ALL Trump supporters!
More than half of all women pretty reliably vote Democrat.
But this is the time of year when those supporting rival primary outcomes within their own party tend to dis the front-runner. Many of them will come around for the general. Also, until a candidate is named as a major party nominee (which Hill of course was 8 years ago), fewer people polled tend to see them as presidential material.
A push poll or actual Vote? Which on do I believe?
Everyday someone write how this group or that will never vote for Trump
Yet out 17 Candidates only 3 left
1 has no chance to get the number and won his home State with 15% of Democrats voting for him
The other has run out of his States and needs 80% of the remaining delegates?
That’s because their view comes from the enemedia.
I’ll just say this. Who cares. 70% of the country wouldn’t trust a Clinton alone with their teen aged daughter (Bill OR Hillary) but that doesn’t mean they wouldn’t support them for the Presidency. Trump can be a jerk, loud and obnoxious and if asked in a poll if I think Trump was a jerk I may say yes. I wouldn’t support anyone else at this point though. Moreover, who cares what the polls say this far out. 6 Months ago the polls told us that Jeb was the likely nominee, Trump had a 12% ceiling and we were also being told that Hillary was unlikely to run. Polls gave us President Romney :P. All these polls try to do is shape opinions. Oh, Polls told us Hillary would Michigan and that Ted was at 27% in Ohio
This woman is for Trump.
Caitlin Jenner is against Trump.
this poll definitely rings true with the women with whom I work, most of whom are actually conservative. They don’t like Hillary, nor do they like Trump (not even a bit).
Same here. Trump is wildly unpopular among pretty much all the conservative women I know.
The repercussions have been more tragic to the U.S. than those of the Eighteenth!
Too many women do not believe conflict is useful. Much of this is rooted in past relationship whether parental or personal. Conflict has a useful place. Avoidance of conflict is also unhealthy to a relationship or a society.
Trump is the ultimate bad boy.
Women may say one thing to a pollster, but standing alone in the booth on election day, they will not be able to deny to themselves that Trump makes them tingle in all the right places.
I am 62 and have been around the block more than a few times. In my experience women may say they like Beta males. After all they make the greatest women friends...so unassumingly harmless and nonthreatening. But whether women admit it or not they prefer/gravitate/follow Alpha males. They may bitch about an Alpha, but they prefer an Alpha that takes charge as it is a biological need and part of the survival of the species. Women instinctively know that when the $hit hist the fan its the Alpha not the Beta who will protect their a$$.
Kasich and Rubio are both classic Alphas. In the general election, Trump may have a problem with the feminist and the lesbians, but most women will go with Trump over Hillary. Count on it.
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