Now only Donald Trump has a viable path to 1.237 delegates

HERE ON FR | March 23, 2016 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

AFTER MARCH 22ND, ONLY DONALD TRUMP
has a viable path to winning the nomination through the Primary Process

Some people are saying that the Utah caucuses were fraudulent.

I do not believe they were. They were caucuses...and Cruz has always had a better ground game in most of the caucus states.

On the other hand, Trump has typically not done as well in Caucus states.

But in the end, Utah will not matter. Here's why:

Even though Trump has lost several primaries with relatively low percentages, overall Trump is still winning big time.

• Kasich won 1 contest
• Rubio won 3 contests
• Cruz has won 10 contests
• Trump has won 20 contests

So, for every "one" of the ten victories Ted likes to talk about stringing together, Trump can show two victories to every one of Ted's.

Folks, these are simply the facts.

Last night Trump took AZ and all 58 delegates, and so despite losing the 40 delegates in UT, he still increased his delegate lead by another 18 delegates, which means he now has 741 delegates and is almost 300 delegates in the lead.

So, while UT was a big win for Cruz, it was not any kind of fatal blow to Trump...and despite it, for the night, Trump continued to increase his lead.

And here's the clincher that nobody seems to be focusing on.

Cruz HAD to win AZ last night in order to have any viable path to the total delegates needed for the nomination.

But he lost AZ.

So, Ted right now is at 461 delgates. He needs another 775 to get to the 1,237 number.

But there are only 763 delegates left to win.

As of last night, Cruz CANNOT win enough delegates through the primary/caucus voting to win the nomination.

Trump, on the other hand, only needs 496 of the remaining 763 to clinch. That means he needs about 2/3rds of the remaining delgates.

It's not a sure thing, but I believe he most definitely can do it.

Let's do a little math and look at one path.

One Trump Path to the nomination:

Let's say Trump wins all of NY (95), and then these winner take all states: MT (27), SD (29), NE (36), and NJ (51).

Then let's say he wins 140 of the 172 in CA (and he may take them all). All of that gives him 378 delegates.

Let's say he wins 60% or RI (19) CT (28) and DE (16). That would be 37 delegates there.

Then proportionally, let's say he under performs and only wins 40% of the delegates in IN (57), WI (42), WA (44), WV (34) OR (28), NB (36) and NM (24). That's 102 delegates.

All of that, for those remaining 16 states, would give Trump another 502 delegates. Add that to his 741 and you end up with 1,249 delegates and he is over the top.

IMHO, this is a somewhat pessimistic forecast of what Trump might do.

Either way, it clearly shows that Trump has a viable and realistic path of sewing up the delegates and nomination before the convention.

In fact, as of last night, he is the only one who can.

---

Summary:

Finally, the GOPe may seem to be willing to back Cruz right now. But they are only doing so to try and deny Trump the nomination.

If they can successfully deny Trump the delegates, they will turn on Cruz in a heartbeat and in a brokered convention seek to throw him to the curb and bring in a GOPe approved candidate...and say to hell with what the people wanted.

And they will not care that they defy the voters and destroy any chance to win in the fall. This whole cycle has revealed that about the GOPe, which many of us suspected, but which they are now revealing in spades.

Ted Cruz is the man who can stop this.

I repeat my appeal to Ted Cruz, who has been my first choice throughout the primaries.

My Open Letter to Ted Cruz
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3410747/posts

Senator Cruz, DO NOT Allows the GOPe to co-opt you and your campaign.

As soon as your and Trump's combined total of delegates surpasses the 12,37 number, endorse Trump and throw in with him.

By so doing you will:

Unite the GOP behind Donald Trump and yourself, the two anti-GOPe candidates who have won an absolute majority of the vote and the delegates.
• Deal a much deserved body slam blow to the GOPe...which is exactly what the people are voting to do.
• Create a ticket that will absolutely destroy Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders in November.
• Create an administration that can restore American greatness and quality.
• Create a potential for 16 years of principled, all-American leadership of the United States, and in the world

I hope and pray Cruz will make the right decision.

As I say, in the end, it very well may be that Trump can win any way.

But how much better it would be if he was able to do so resoundingly and in the process, unite the party despite the best efforts to the contrary of the GOPe.

[Kit cat]

I Live in CA and TRUMP WILL WIN!!! CA is very much like AZ and he WILL WIN!!!!!

[diamond6]

“I Live in CA and TRUMP WILL WIN!!! CA is very much like AZ and he WILL WIN!!!!!”

Over my dead body. My wife and I trump your Trump vote, and I’ll raise you a million more.

[Kit cat]

I am doing phone banks for Trump and you my friend are DEAD wrong!!! CA. is SOLIDLY Trump so sorry to disappoint!!!!

[diamond6]

I intend to volunteer, too, and I’ll be knocking on doors.

I may be coming to your house to convince you otherwise!!!

[Kit cat]

You can SKIP my house there is NO WAY IN HELL I would EVER change my mind EVER!!!! As a matter of fact you can SKIP my WHOLE block we are ALL SOLID Trump!!!! EVERY house on both sides of street for the ENTIRE block is proudly displaying their Trump signs front and center!!! I made sure EVERYONE had one!!! Everyone also has an American flag flying proudly outside their homes we are ALL very enthusiastic about taking our country back again!!! Most of all we CAN’T WAIT for that BIG beautiful WALL!!!! you my friend are so DEAD WRONG about CA. Trump mat not take the general here but he WILL WIN The pubbie primary!!!!

[diamond6]

Where do you live again?

[Squantos]

Good work Jeff..... thank you very much.

BTTT !!!

[diamond6]

So you’re saying there’s a chance?

[Kit cat]

Yes diamond that is certainly a definate maybe!!!! LOL!!!!

[Chgogal]

Great Post.

Must email this to myself.

: )

[diamond6]

I thought so. You know, I'm an attorney, and I'm pretty persuasive.😄 Do you live in Fresno by any chance?

[diamond6]

Keep in mind, there are actually still 944 delegates left

[Chgogal]

I'll put my money on the guy who has the guts to lead, speaks his mind and requires the least number of delegates.

[diamond6]

Well, right now, he has the best ofds. But he still needs 1237 to get the job done.

[Kit cat]

NO diamond SO. CAL!!!!

[diamond6]

Used to live there. Oh well, we won’t cross paths.

Go Dodgers!

[LegalEagle61]

FNC tonight said Trump needs to win a little over 53% of remaining delegates to win and for Cruz it was over 82%. I agree with everyone else, Cruz is being used, there is no way the establishment wants him. He truly should make a deal with Trump, best impact would be Cruz as VP, it would unite the party while shoving it up the ass of the establishment and let’s face it, we’d all love to see that!! I think Trump supporters would go for that, some Cruz supporters would probably throw a fit but it would be up to Cruz to smooth that over. I know one thing, when Trump really starts giving it to Hillary, most Republicans will have a change of heart since we all hate Hillary more than anyone! And then it’s Game on!!!

[Ingtar]

I suspect the difference is that I summed the delegates available for each state or territory, whether they were bound to a candidate or not.

[castlegreyskull]

I beg to differ:

The Public Policy Institute of California poll showed support for Trump at 38 percent among likely Republican voters, followed by Ted Cruz at 19 percent and John Kasich at 12 percent. Marco Rubio, the Florida senator who ended his presidential bid last week, received 12 percent in the poll taken March 6 to March 15.

[John Valentine]

I had not seen that one; however which is marginally better for Trump than some previous polls I had seen. Still, he remains in the 30 plus percent range, and Cruz is likely to get the Kasich votes when he finally throws in, as too the largest percent of the Rubio votes.

Distributing the Rubio votes: Trump 38, Cruz 29, Kasich 14. There are still another 19 percent undecided, liekly to go mostly for Cruz and Kasich.

Distributing these:

Trump 40%
Cruz 39%
Kasich 21%

This is a race to watch.

If Kasich drops out before California, his votes will split 2 to 1 for Cruz.

Trump 47%
Cruz 53%

That’s how I see it and of course, it could be either better or worse for either candidate depending on how the big mo develops after Cruz wins Wisconsin fairly decisively on April 5, and goes on to surprise in the Northeast.