Now only Donald Trump has a viable path to 1.237 delegates

HERE ON FR | March 23, 2016 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

AFTER MARCH 22ND, ONLY DONALD TRUMP
has a viable path to winning the nomination through the Primary Process

Some people are saying that the Utah caucuses were fraudulent.

I do not believe they were. They were caucuses...and Cruz has always had a better ground game in most of the caucus states.

On the other hand, Trump has typically not done as well in Caucus states.

But in the end, Utah will not matter. Here's why:

Even though Trump has lost several primaries with relatively low percentages, overall Trump is still winning big time.

• Kasich won 1 contest
• Rubio won 3 contests
• Cruz has won 10 contests
• Trump has won 20 contests

So, for every "one" of the ten victories Ted likes to talk about stringing together, Trump can show two victories to every one of Ted's.

Folks, these are simply the facts.

Last night Trump took AZ and all 58 delegates, and so despite losing the 40 delegates in UT, he still increased his delegate lead by another 18 delegates, which means he now has 741 delegates and is almost 300 delegates in the lead.

So, while UT was a big win for Cruz, it was not any kind of fatal blow to Trump...and despite it, for the night, Trump continued to increase his lead.

And here's the clincher that nobody seems to be focusing on.

Cruz HAD to win AZ last night in order to have any viable path to the total delegates needed for the nomination.

But he lost AZ.

So, Ted right now is at 461 delgates. He needs another 775 to get to the 1,237 number.

But there are only 763 delegates left to win.

As of last night, Cruz CANNOT win enough delegates through the primary/caucus voting to win the nomination.

Trump, on the other hand, only needs 496 of the remaining 763 to clinch. That means he needs about 2/3rds of the remaining delgates.

It's not a sure thing, but I believe he most definitely can do it.

Let's do a little math and look at one path.

One Trump Path to the nomination:

Let's say Trump wins all of NY (95), and then these winner take all states: MT (27), SD (29), NE (36), and NJ (51).

Then let's say he wins 140 of the 172 in CA (and he may take them all). All of that gives him 378 delegates.

Let's say he wins 60% or RI (19) CT (28) and DE (16). That would be 37 delegates there.

Then proportionally, let's say he under performs and only wins 40% of the delegates in IN (57), WI (42), WA (44), WV (34) OR (28), NB (36) and NM (24). That's 102 delegates.

All of that, for those remaining 16 states, would give Trump another 502 delegates. Add that to his 741 and you end up with 1,249 delegates and he is over the top.

IMHO, this is a somewhat pessimistic forecast of what Trump might do.

Either way, it clearly shows that Trump has a viable and realistic path of sewing up the delegates and nomination before the convention.

In fact, as of last night, he is the only one who can.

---

Summary:

Finally, the GOPe may seem to be willing to back Cruz right now. But they are only doing so to try and deny Trump the nomination.

If they can successfully deny Trump the delegates, they will turn on Cruz in a heartbeat and in a brokered convention seek to throw him to the curb and bring in a GOPe approved candidate...and say to hell with what the people wanted.

And they will not care that they defy the voters and destroy any chance to win in the fall. This whole cycle has revealed that about the GOPe, which many of us suspected, but which they are now revealing in spades.

Ted Cruz is the man who can stop this.

I repeat my appeal to Ted Cruz, who has been my first choice throughout the primaries.

My Open Letter to Ted Cruz
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3410747/posts

Senator Cruz, DO NOT Allows the GOPe to co-opt you and your campaign.

As soon as your and Trump's combined total of delegates surpasses the 12,37 number, endorse Trump and throw in with him.

By so doing you will:

Unite the GOP behind Donald Trump and yourself, the two anti-GOPe candidates who have won an absolute majority of the vote and the delegates.
• Deal a much deserved body slam blow to the GOPe...which is exactly what the people are voting to do.
• Create a ticket that will absolutely destroy Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders in November.
• Create an administration that can restore American greatness and quality.
• Create a potential for 16 years of principled, all-American leadership of the United States, and in the world

I hope and pray Cruz will make the right decision.

As I say, in the end, it very well may be that Trump can win any way.

But how much better it would be if he was able to do so resoundingly and in the process, unite the party despite the best efforts to the contrary of the GOPe.

[Red Steel]

No one. All 9 are remaining uncommitted until the Rep Con.

[dynoman]

http://www.tedbush.org/home.html

[Utmost Certainty]

Where are you getting 763 remaining delegates?

There’s at least 800-900 available.

http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P16/R

[Jim W N]

Here’s what I’ve got from various sites:

Minimum % Trump Delegates Needed
1237 Total delegates needed
754 Trump delegates to date
483 Bal Trump delegates needed
839 State delegates remaining
58% % bal Trump delegates needed

But there’s this baffling 272 delegates that seem to be unaccounted for (either uncommitted or something else).

Unaccounted-for Delegates
2472 Total Delegates
2200 Allocated+Remaining Delegates
272 Unaccounted-for Delegates

Anyway, putting the unaccounted-for delegates aside, I’m showing Trump needs to get 58% of remaining state primaries/caucuses to get to 1237.

[proust]

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/republicans/

[Grampa Dave]

Jeff, thanks for the real math reality not the New Core Math, which might be somewhere close to correct or not!

[jjotto]

Jeb Bush only endorsed Ted after it was too late.

Yep. This is about getting some Establishment delegates into the mix. The GOP-E never imagined they could get shut out like this, so all they can do is latch onto someone who will add delegates. Since Cruz supporters are discouraged, Establishment-types will volunteer to be Cruz delegates. They need some impact on rules and future campaigns.

[DouglasKC]

Cruz and Kasich are both mathematically eliminated from being able to win the nomination outright.

[GodGunsGuts]

Ted can still win it at the ballot box. However, I just read an article that gives Ted Cruz the advantage in a contested convention.

[V K Lee]

This certainly puts some bounce into the steps today. Thank you for the article.

And it seems there was fraud in Utah, just as there was/is fraud in the vote across the country. Will any be called on it? Less likely chance than Hillary being charged for the crimes she committed.

[jospehm20]

He has already lost. The only thing he can do now is shoot for the convention fight that his Bush/Romney masters want, which is what he will do.

[loveliberty2]

Cooperating with an effort to subvert the expressed will of "The People" is not a "conservative" thing to do, no matter how it is framed.

Call it what you will, but if the word "conserve" is to mean preserving the ideas upon which our individual liberty was secured and protected by a written Constitution, then the scheme currently being undertaken by Republican Party leaders, then they need to change the way they self-describe.

Cruz was my choice, but if he, understanding the founding ideas as he does, allows himself to accept the power of the Presidency under such conditions, then his actions undermine his claimed fidelity to those ideas.

[erkelly]

I’m sorry, I’m just not buying a 70% win for Cruz. I live in Nevada, right next door, the percentage of Mormons in this state is very large, and most of them are Republicans yet Trump won our closed primary by nearly 50% of the vote. If Cruz were so popular among Mormons, then he would have won a much higher percentage than he did here. Also, Arizona also has a huge Mormon population, yet Trump won there as well. There had to be some very funny stuff going on for Trump to only get about 10% of the vote in Utah; for one thing, while Utah is heavily Mormon, there are a lot of non-Mormons living there who would not all be so smitten with Cruz even if every last Mormon was. Although I suppose with an honest vote Cruz might win Utah, if it were honest it would be a lot closer than this and Trump would have a much higher number.

There is a lot of cheating going on, and fortunately, Trump can challenge these fraudulent elections at the convention and get these votes thrown out.

[Ingtar]

Well reasoned, but there are 885 delegates remaining and that throws the math off. Trump has to win over 54% of those remaining delegates. Cruz has to win over 87% of them to win. However, if anyone other than Trump, including uncommitted, get 483 of the remaining delegates, there is no first ballot winner. Cruz still has to win two more majorities (he has ID,KS,ME,TX, UT, WY), or he cannot receive votes in any round.

[SandRat]

These are an absolute must no matter what:

•Create a ticket that will absolutely destroy Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders in November.
•Create an administration that can restore American greatness and quality.
•Create a potential for the next 16 years of principled, all-American leadership of the United States, and in the world .

[tflabo]

If Cruz was the pre-Iowa candidate that he was and remained true w/o the GOPee ‘beat Trump at all costs endorsements’ then he would have better leverage with the voters for a rally behind Trump push. Methinks its too late for that now with all the bad vibes between the two and his GOPee shills who he cant toss over now. The voters will have to push Trump over the line and thats a good thing.

[protest1]

I fuly agree with you and hope Ted will decide to back Donald Trump as the only candidate now able to get an overall majority.

[Jim W N]

“But there are only 763 delegates left to win.”

Looks like there are 839 delegates remaining in future primaries/caucuses.

North Dakota 28
Wisconsin 42
New York 95
Connecticut 28
Delaware 16
Maryland 38
Pennsylvania 71
Rhode Island 19
Indiana 57
Nebraska 36
West Virginia 34
Oregon 28
Washington 44
California 172
Montana 7-Jun 27
New Jersey 51
New Mexico 24
South Dakota 29
Totals 839

[Baldwin77]

MY calculation show that there are 839 delegates left.

[Balding_Eagle]

My calculations show 839 left to be won.