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Itís on, Wisconsin: Cruz, Trump in virtual tie
Hotair ^ | 03/24/2016 | Ed Morrissey

Posted on 03/24/2016 7:57:21 AM PDT by SeekAndFind

Until late yesterday, polling in Wisconsin’s primaries showed Donald Trump in a tight battle with … Marco Rubio. It had been over a month since anyone polled the next big battleground in the Republican primary until Emerson College filled the gap late yesterday. Instead of Trump having a ten-point lead over Rubio, though, the survey found that Ted Cruz had edged out in front 36/35 over Trump, and putting himself in position to take most of the state’s 42 delegates on April 5th:

As establishment Republicans look for ways to slow Donald Trump’s relentless march toward the party’s presidential nomination, Wisconsin’s winner-take-all GOP primary contest on April 5 offers some intriguing possibilities. In a statewide Emerson College poll released today, Texas Senator Ted Cruz is not only leading Trump 36% to 35% in the upcoming primary, but Cruz is only trailing Hillary Clinton by one point in a hypothetical general election matchup, 46% to 45%. In contrast, Trump is trailing both Clinton and her Democratic rival, Bernie Sanders, by the same 9-point
margin of 47% to 38% in a potential general election match-up.

The Democratic primary isn’t quite as close, but it’s not a blowout either:

In the Democratic primary, Clinton leads Sanders by 6 points, 50% to 44%, with 5% undecided. Wisconsin’s demographics bode well for Sanders, who has enjoyed his strongest wins in states with a low percentage of minorities and lopsided support for him among young voters. He leads Clinton 67% to 29% in the 18-34 age group and ties her at 48% among voters 35-54. As in other primaries Emerson College has polled, he trails her by large margins with older voters: 63% to 31% (ages 55-74) and 73% to 19% (ages 75 and up). Less than 10% of the state’s Democratic voters are African American or Latino, groups that have supported Clinton very heavily in other states.

Let’s stick with the GOP primary. Kasich falls far off the pace in Wisconsin with only 19% of the vote. According to Emerson’s data, he’s pulling more of that vote away from Cruz than Trump, as Cruz has higher favorability than Trump among Kasich voters, 36/27. If Wisconsin came down to a two-person race, Cruz might lead outside the margin of error. Trump might still win delegates by winning in one or more Congressional districts, but Cruz would win the statewide delegates and other CDs to boost his status in the delegate chase. If the polling from Emerson is accurate, Kasich probably can’t win a single delegate.

Why does this matter? Scott Walker stands poised to endorse either Cruz or Kasich; he’s made it clear that he won’t endorse Trump. Polling results like these would probably push Walker to endorse Cruz, and to do so soon, in order to get Kasich to back down. That would also be true of other Republicans who want to see Cruz block Trump from winning a majority of delegates before the convention. While the impact of those endorsements might be debatable, the potential impact might be enough to convince Kasich to look for greener pastures for his limited and declining resources. The only question would be where those pastures would be, if not in Wisconsin.

In a general election matchup, Trump fares worse than Cruz, although both come up short against Hillary. Trump would trail 38/47, losing women 33/52 and independents 33/47. Cruz, however, comes into the margin of error overall at 45/46, trailing among women by 41/49 and independents 41/45. (There are no head-to-head questions with Kasich.) In terms of overall favorability, Kasich performs the strongest at 52/30, while Cruz goes under water at 39/52. Trump’s favorability among registered voters in Wisconsin is atrocious, however, at 25/69. Hillary’s, by the way, is almost as bad as Cruz’ at 42/55.

How much does Wisconsin matter? In my book Going Red, I selected Wisconsin as a key swing state in the general election. Republicans should have no better time than now to push this state into GOP territory: Barack Obama will no longer be a factor, Walker has broken the public-employee unions’ power, and the voters now elect Republicans statewide rather than Democrats. However, this state will require both excellent ground organization and a message of pragmatic conservatism tied to local concerns in order to vote for its first Republican president since Ronald Reagan. At first blush, Kasich would be the best fit of the three, but Cruz easily out-organizes his rivals — and he knows how to tailor his message for each community.

In order to win in Wisconsin, one has to win big in the northeastern quadrant of the state, especially in Brown County. Reid Ribble, who won three terms in Congress in this region, told me what voters there want to see. “Genuineness and humility matters,” he says. “There are some very traditional values that are held dearly in northeast Wisconsin.” The candidate who wants Wisconsin has to have the ability to tap into that, or forego any hope of winning.

For now, though, the decision has to be about the nomination. If the GOP wants to win Wisconsin and its ten Electoral College votes, they had better hope Cruz pulls this off in the April 5th primary.

Update: It’s also worth noting that Trump’s Rust Belt path to the presidency depends on flipping Wisconsin. With a 25/69 favorability rating, that will be almost impossible, outside of a concession by Democrats. Wisconsin istoo much in the throes of partisan warfare for anyone with that kind of favorability rating to compete effectively for enough votes in the narrow middle that exists there.


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: Wisconsin
KEYWORDS: cruz; elections; emersoncollege; hotair; polls; trump; wisconsin
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1 posted on 03/24/2016 7:57:21 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

Cruz wins about 5 states in the general and gets crushed in Mondale like numbers to Hillary in the general.

2 posted on 03/24/2016 8:06:03 AM PDT by The Iceman Cometh (Time To Come Together? Trump & Cruz 2016?)
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To: SeekAndFind

More dirty tricks from Team Cruz-GoldmanSachs
who have not won a single primary where people
actually vote.

3 posted on 03/24/2016 8:06:12 AM PDT by Diogenesis ("When a crime is unpunished, the world is unbalanced.")
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To: SeekAndFind

Ed is that you?

4 posted on 03/24/2016 8:06:59 AM PDT by Brasky (You miss every shot you never take.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Rehash of the BS poll.

5 posted on 03/24/2016 8:07:13 AM PDT by Lagmeister ( false prophets shall rise, and shall show signs and wonders Mark 13:22)
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To: All
Committee to Restore America’s Greatness PAC
FR Posted 3/19/16 by Albion Wilde

The Trump Ballot Security Project (TBSP) was formed when the main stream media reported dozens of voting irregularities in the Texas Republican primary. This ultimately totaled over 600 reports in at least six counties including Dallas County and Travis County. In virtually every case votes cast for Donald J. Trump were tallied for Senator Marco Rubio.

<><> the Iowa fiasco where Cruz stole Ben Carson/s delegates by lying saying Carson was dropping out, telling supporters to caucus w/ Cruz.
<><> Even though @realDonaldTrump won delegates in Texas the @TedCruz- @georgepbush #RickPerry cabal is refusing to slate Trump supporters.)
<><> In Utah w/ Beck and Romney running the show, the Cruz team emailed supporters the day of the caucus, telling them they can vote absentee that day. This is in violation of state law.


The TBSP established a Toll Free number to collect further reports of voter irregularities.

Almost immediately there were over 300 complaints from Oklahoma. Only a week later the Kansas and Maine Caucuses brought hundreds of more complaints including claims of double voting by supporters of Sen. Ted Cruz.

Now we are focused on Arizona, Utah, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and California. To the extent possible, we are attempting to place trained poll watchers in those counties with a recent history of voter fraud.

The Trump Ballot Security Project is committed to investigating all complaints of voter fraud. In the event a pattern can be determined, the seating of these delegations can and will be challenged before the Credentials committee of the Republican National Convention.

We have dispatched lawyers and election law experts to all of the states mentioned above to investigate and document voter fraud. NOTE The Trump campaign is not currently devoting resources to this important function.

TBSP is a project of the Committee To Restore America's Greatness

6 posted on 03/24/2016 8:09:51 AM PDT by Liz (SAFE PLACE? A liberal's mind. Nothing's there. Nothing can penetrate it.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Having lost every primary with his incredible ground game, I chuckle as I read these flights of fantasy.

7 posted on 03/24/2016 8:11:22 AM PDT by DoughtyOne (Facing Trump nomination inevitability, folks are now openly trying to help Hillary destroy him.)
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To: SeekAndFind
Kasich falls far off the pace in Wisconsin with only 19% of the vote.

Yet Kasich holds grandiose plans of stealing the nomination and sweeping to victory.

8 posted on 03/24/2016 8:14:03 AM PDT by The Sons of Liberty (Baraq Hussein 0bama has made AMERICANS CITIZENS second class occupants in their own country.)
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To: All

What needs to be stated is that Kasich and Cruz have NO chance to get 1237 delegates!

Cruz/Kasich/GOPe have only three goals...(a) dupe as many voters as possible to deny Trump 1237 delegates...(b) contest the convention and somehow win it with GOPe backing...(c) somehow try to win back the Trump voters and/or get the stink off a FUBAR convention. And hope Trump don’t go third party.

How many pissed voters will the GOPe write off from this debacle? A believe it will be a noticeable chunk. Enough to sway an election.

9 posted on 03/24/2016 8:15:08 AM PDT by ak267
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To: SeekAndFind

No way Cruz wins a high population density state such as Wisconsin.

10 posted on 03/24/2016 8:17:47 AM PDT by Objective Scrutator (All liberals are criminals, and all criminals are liberals)
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To: The Iceman Cometh

Your comment: “Cruz wins about 5 states in the general and gets crushed in Mondale like numbers to Hillary in the general.”

Must be a delusional Democrat that went to Illinois to block the great changes in Wisconsin.

She will be indicated after the election she loses.

11 posted on 03/24/2016 8:19:30 AM PDT by ADSUM
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To: The Sons of Liberty

I believe that his grandiose plans of sweeping to victory will only succeed in sweeping the GOPe into the trash bin of history.

My view is becoming good riddance to bad trash.

12 posted on 03/24/2016 8:19:46 AM PDT by JoeVet (First rule of holes ... when you find yourself standing in one - stop digging ... unless ur a Dim)
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To: Objective Scrutator
No way Cruz wins a high population density state such as Wisconsin.

Wisconsin is not a high density state outside of Milwaukee/suburbs and Madison. Lots of room, lots of cows. The town we last lived in was Edgerton, and it was 5,000 and a shortish drive to Madison. It is more like Missouri among the states surveyed so far, which Cruz was within a hair of winning. It won't be a blow out like Idaho or Utah, but it won't go far the other way like Ohio.
13 posted on 03/24/2016 8:22:15 AM PDT by Dr. Sivana (There is no salvation in politics)
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To: ak267

It is so obvious what the establishment and cruz are doing and yet for some reason there are still cruz voter son here who are in denial.

It really is mind boggling to see them spin these words now too.

“Let me encourage other members of the establishment: Keep supporting Donald Trump because every time you do it, what it is doing is telling conservatives all over the country is where you stand and who stands with you”.
- Ted Cruz, New Hampshire stump speech

14 posted on 03/24/2016 8:23:23 AM PDT by manc (Marriage =1 man + 1 woman,when they say marriage equality then they should support polygamy)
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To: SeekAndFind

Put Your Donation Where Your Mouth Is: Who do you think will win the Republican Nomination?

opinion | 23 March 2016 | ShivaFan
Posted on 3/23/2016, 4:34:05 PM by ShivaFan

This is simple. If some are so sure who has the momentum and will get the Republican convention, put your money (donation to FR) where your mouth is.

Personally, I would set this bet at $100 as fair game, but I think some are also suffering under the Obama “recovery” so I think a $40 bet in more fair.

Here would be the bet. Pick who you think will get the Republican nomination below by responding BET (name) in upper case. If your choice does NOT get the nomination then you donate $40 dollars to support donation.

What do you say? This isn’t really gambling, just sort of a fun way to donate to Free Republic if you are wrong.


15 posted on 03/24/2016 8:24:58 AM PDT by Grampa Dave (I 'm just another low info/stupid & evil/vile/crazy Trump supporter wanting to select my candidate!!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Time to present some LOGIC to these Trump bashers.

In the last SEVEN YEARS, Republican voters have sent a MAJORITY to both houses of COngress. The GOP Establishment, allied with people like the Bushes, Romneys, etc., have, during that entire time frame, done NOTHING to counter a Marxist, Racist, Anti-American, Anti-Judaeo-Christian President. To the contrary, they have ACTIVELY assisted him. They have IGNORED the wishes of the people who gave them those majorities.

Fast forward to the present. Donald Trump appears on the scene. With all his foibles, he alone starts the conversation going about a border wall, cracking down on Islamist infiltration, globalization, unfair trade practices, losses of American jobs, crony capitalists, political correctness, etc.

He succeeds in getting MORE people to go out and vote Republican than anyone in recent history. He wins one state after another racking up more and more delegates for the convention.

Yet the morally bankrupt GOP establishment sends one loser after another out to try and keep him from getting nominated. They stoop to attacking his wife on the internet in the most vile and despicable barrage of lies, half truths and photoshopped pictures. They take out ads against him. They rail about running a third party candidate against him. After demanding he promise to support the party’s choice, these self-same hypocrits state they will refuse to support him if he is nominated. They are on record as stating the average Republican voter doesn’t pick candidates - THE PARTY DOES!!!

These collection of rapacious, greedy lying, ineffective scum then push a man they detest, Ted Cruz, in an attempt to generate a brokered convention which most certainly will NOT result in the most popular candidate OR the said Cruz being nominated.

Anyone out there who votes for anyone other than Trump is sending a message to these incompetent boobs in the GOP establishment - McCain, McConnell, Ryan, Cornyn, Priebus, etc. that they don’t care about their active collusion with Obama or their criminal incompetence in supporting him, they will continue to enable this disgusting party leadership to control the GOP.

16 posted on 03/24/2016 8:26:55 AM PDT by ZULU (Trump is the answer. The Establishment is the problem.)
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To: Liz

When does someone realize Ted! IS NOT ELIGIBLE ?!;page=201 - - THREAT MATRIX 2016


17 posted on 03/24/2016 8:27:31 AM PDT by PraiseTheLord (have you seen the fema camps, shackle box cars, thousands of guillotines, stacks of coffins ~)
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To: ak267

“...(c) somehow try to win back the Trump voters and/or get the stink off a FUBAR convention. And hope Trump don’t go third party.”

I’ll take what’s behind Door “C” for $500! There is simply no reason to remain a member of the GOP if they continue to operate like a Mafia Family.

18 posted on 03/24/2016 8:28:25 AM PDT by vette6387 (Obama can go to hell!)
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To: PraiseTheLord

That’s why LuzeCruz cannot produce a CRBA to demonstrate he is eligible.

HELLry will wait until general if LuzeCruz is nominee and then pounce on this disqualifier.

19 posted on 03/24/2016 8:30:39 AM PDT by newfreep
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To: SeekAndFind

It’s interesting that the Emerson Polling Project methodology page says that they always weight their polls, but the press release on these WI polls says they weighted the Democrat side, but not the Republican. The Emerson Poll is conducted by college students in Massachusetts. College students in Mass. couldn’t possibly have an agenda that would cause them to change their methodology for this one poll, could they? Hmmm...

20 posted on 03/24/2016 8:33:56 AM PDT by LNV
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