Posted on 04/15/2016 9:33:00 AM PDT by Kaslin
Whenever Donald Trump and his followers are confronted with his evidence of his abysmally terrible polling numbers on personal favorability and versus Hillary Clinton, they typically respond with a pair of deflections. First, they say that Trump "hasn't even started" attacking Hillary yet. Setting aside the fact that Trump has taken many hard jabs at Mrs. Clinton over a span of months, this line of thinking requires a logical leap: That once he does train virtually all of his fire on her, it will both hurt her and help him. American voters have been subjected to endlessTrump coverage since last spring, over which time his approach to politics has been made abundantly clear. They don't like what they've seen. His unfavorability rating has soared, especially among women. And we're supposed to believe he'll rectify this problem by...relentlessly attacking his female opponent, inevitably deploying personal insults along the way? By the way, if you think he'll be able to resist this sort of petty nastiness in the general election setting, you haven't been paying attention. His barrage of criticism against Hillary might put a dent in her (weak) favorability numbers, but he desperately needs to resurrect his catastrophically bad public image. Being an impulsive attack dog, his default setting, isn't likely to get him there.
The next rationalization we often hear is that it's silly to worry about bad polling at this stage of the race. It's way too early. Just look at 1980! Jimmy Carter was crushing Reagan in the spring, yet all we know how that election turned out. Trump himself loves this argument, which he advanced at a rally in New York this week. Politifact, a left-leaning fact-checking outfit dove into the data and found that -- surprise -- Trump is wrong on this point. They point to a summary of nine available public polling taken in March and April of 1980. Carter led Regan in seven of the surveys, with Reagan ahead by nine points in one, plus a tie. On average, Carter held a five-point lead at this juncture of the contest, and his lead was shrinking. In mid-April of 2016, Hillary Clinton's advantage is growing. She has topped Trump in 15 consecutive polls, and her average lead is approximately double what Carter's was over a parallel stretch:
That chart didn't include Fox News' latest survey, which shows Trump down seven (with Cruz virtually tied and Kasich up nine). Politifact's analysis goes on, delving into the measure of favorability ratings:
We didn’t find many questions on favorability in the Roper database, but one April 1980 poll from Cambridge Reports found Reagan at 39 percent favorable, 44 percent unfavorable. That’s five percentage points "under water" -- favorable minus unfavorable. By contrast, Trump’s poll averages for favorability in 2015 and 2016 have -- at their best -- been 17 points under water. Currently, they are at 64 percent unfavorable, 30 percent favorable, according to HuffPost Pollster. That’s 34 points under water, far worse than Reagan’s in the spring of 1980.
In summary: In the spring of 1980, Jimmy Carter's once-large polling lead had waned considerably against a then-mildly unpopular Ronald Reagan. Thirty-six years later, Hillary Clinton's once-modest polling lead has grown substantially against an increasingly and historically unpopular Donald Trump. All of the trajectories are wrong for Trump fans, and the actual numbers don't support the story they love to tell. Which means they'll keep telling it, louder than ever. I'll leave you with this gentle reminder:
He also financially supported Kerry over Bush, and donated multiple times to...Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign in 2008.
those numbers go well against the latest polling
but it’s nice to show massaged pols that are a bit dated to make a point that you want to make isn’t it?
I heard once figures lie and liars figure
lets talk again come November
And there is zero evidence that Trump will change his tactics.
Comparing 2016 election to 1980 is a folly, anyways. better comparison would be 2012. Carter was an unpopular incumbent. BHO’s last JAR was in the low 50’s although I see that has fallen below 505 in some polls now.
The same comparison, BTW, was used in early 2012
We didn’t find many questions on favorability in the Roper database, but one April 1980 poll from Cambridge Reports found Reagan at 39 percent favorable, 44 percent unfavorable. That’s five percentage points “under water” — favorable minus unfavorable. By contrast, Trump’s poll averages for favorability in 2015 and 2016 have — at their best — been 17 points under water. Currently, they are at 64 percent unfavorable, 30 percent favorable, according to HuffPost Pollster. That’s 34 points under water, far worse than Reagan’s in the spring of 1980.
This is toxic, BTW. Has anyone won a presidential race, much less any political office, with such high unfavorables?
You are right. This Guy Benson is a pure establishment tool. Along to the lines of Hugh Hewitt.
You are right. This Guy Benson is a pure establishment tool. Along to the lines of Hugh Hewitt.
Maybe he is, maybe he isn’t
But he’s right. Pointing out the fact about how serious Trump is underwater when it comes to the general election doesn’t make them an establishment tool
All those who arent backing Trump recognize that the candidate of their choice could lose the general against Hillary.
Trumpers tend to believe that the country sees Trump the same way they do and, despite mounting evidence to the contrary, believe there is no possible way he could lose to Hillary and will lash out at anything that suggests otherwise. How about looking at the article as a possible warning for Trump to change his approach instead of dismissing facts you don’t like?
He is about where Reagan was in the spring before the election. Especially when one realizes that Trump has endured organized GOP party attacks that they never dreamed of with doing to Reagan.
The party was not in favor of Reagan, but they did not spend tens of millions in ads opposing him. This is unprecedented.
Hey did you hear that Townhall.com and Redstate.com got married.
Lets
So, if I compare “negatives” to “who do you plan to vote for”, then Trump has to be one of the most successful candidates ever in converting “negatives” to votes.
Don’t interrupt the Friday Cruz love fest!
He really has a chance! Really. Stop laughing!!
Benson and the other elitist brats over at townhall are absolutely consumed with Trump derangement. He was on Kennedy’s show last night, every conversation about Trumps climbing poll numbers ultimately fizzles to a ‘his supporters are ignorant rubes’ position.
TownSmall was so convinced that it’s article wouldn’t hold water, that it had to post that photo of Trump next to Reagan’s photo.
Just one more reason why it resembles a sixth grade school newspaper.
Why not? After all Trump compared himself once to Ronald Reagan.
>>>The party was not in favor of Reagan, but they did not spend tens of millions in ads
The GOP hasn’t bought any ads. And Trump has viciously and personally insulted his opponents and the party all along the way. No candidate in my lifetime has been more petty and insulting of his opponents and his party.
If Trump were a Hillary surrogate trying to divide and weaken the opposing party, he couldn’t have done it much better.
Actually Trump is the only one that can win the general as seen by the demographics hes pulling in. Trump pulls the same groups as Regan did.
Kaisch is a democrat, the MSM loves him to run knowing Conservatives will stay home. This is why so many Push Polls are out.
Cruz has a very narrow niche of voters and turns off well over half the people as well as does not bring in new voters. Plus the 3rd of Trump supporters who will not vote for him.
Simple fact. You want to win the Presidency you need Trump. As is obvious any poll saying Hillary can beat him is total garbage and ignores real world and history. Common sense tells you 3 things: One Hillary cannot beat anything let alone a Charismatic. 2. the things you were programed to hate about Trump are assets in the general to independents and Blue Dog democrats. 3. There are going to be a lot of Pissed off Sander’s voters who will want vengeance on Hillary but could not force themselves to vote for Cruz. That means WIN with Trump.
When every poll shows the same result, they’re “massaged”? trump’s main argument in the early debates was that he was doing so well in the polls...that’s what made Rubio a “loser” and made him so much better than everyone else. Live by the poll, die by the poll. Trump will never be President.
I did not vote for Ronald Reagan in the 1980 presidential primary election because like most I thought he was just a Hollywood actor. However I voted for him in the general election and never regretted it and so I voted for him in the 1984 primary election and his reelection in November 1984
Once more, third grader logic is expressed to justify the trashing of Trump through photo journalism.
It at once makes anything that follow irrelevant.
The article is known to be unacceptably biased before you read one word of it.
And then you get folks who lower themselves to children prior to reaching the age of reason, to defend it.
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