April 19 GOP Primary Primer (NY) - Closing Times, Polling Data, Delegate Formulas

Various, including state GOP websites, thegreenpapers.com, Real Clear Politics, Frontloadingblogspot ^ | 4/19/2016 | Self

[NYRepublican72]

Tuesday, April 19, 2016
95 of 2,472 delegates
(95 bound)

[NYRepublican72]

Sourcing

For primary dates and times:
Official GOP websites for states.

For delegate allocation:
The Green Papers
Frontloading Blogspot

For polling data:
Real Clear Politics

[Repeal The 17th]

I claim 75/95 in the pool.

[NYRepublican72]

What you need to know about New York

1) New York is a modified winner-takes-all-state that requires a candidate to get a majority of the vote (50%+1) to take all of the delegates from either the statewide delegation (14 delegates) or a Congressional District (3 delegates in each of 27 of NY’s districts).

2) If Trump fails to get to 50%+1 statewide, the 14 statewide delegates will be apportioned between Trump and any candidate that gets 20% or more of the state vote. Ted Cruz is below 20% statewide in a lot of polls.

3) If Trump fails to get to 50%+1 in any Congressional District, Trump will get 2 delegates and the 2nd place finisher will get 1 delegate, so long as they notch 20% of the vote.

4) 0ptimus Research published an in-depth poll of New York (likely a Kasich coordinated internal). Trump had a commanding lead in all 27 of NY’s Congressional Districts.

5) However, there were a number of which in the poll that were “vulnerable.” and Trump polled < 50%. They are as follows:

Pro-Kasich CD 7 (Brooklyn), CD 12 (Manhattan. Queens), CD 13 (Manhattan, Bronx), CD 15 (South Bronx), CD 16 (North Bronx/Southern Westchester), CD 19 (Hudson Valley), CD 20 (Albany), CD 21 (Watertown, Plattsburgh, Adirondacks), CD 22 (Rome, Utica, Southern Tier), CD 23 (SW NY, Ithaca, Corning, Fredonia), CD 24 (Syracuse), CD 25 (Rochester), CD 26 (Buffalo), CD 27 (Buffalo Suburbs)

Pro-Cruz CD 9 (Brooklyn) CD 10 (Brooklyn/Manhattan)

6) Remember, most of these polls did not collapse the undecideds. 0ptimus did not push the undecideds that hard and had Trump <50% (the only poll that did so).

When 0ptimus pushed the undecideds, Trump had 51% of the vote.

The other polls favor a push into the mid-50s for Trump.

7) The closer you get to 60% the closer Trump gets to grabbing all 95 delegates. A safe assumption if the polling is correct is that Trump should get roughly 80-90 of the delegates at the RCP average of 53%.

[SubMareener]

We are all counting on you folks to deliver the coup de grâce to poor Ted Cruz.

[NYRepublican72]

I’m amped to stick it to the GOP-e and vote for Donald J. Trump tomorrow morning.

[JLAGRAYFOX]

Republican/Conservative voters in New York State...you have a great opportunity to win this POTUS race “countrywide” today by casting all your votes for Donald J. Trump in the NY GOP POTUS Primary. If Trump scores a victory by winning with 55%-75% of the NY GOP POTUS vote......he totally wipes out both Ted Cruz & John Kasich in one fell swoop, garners the valuable New York ninety-five (95) delegates...and sets the momentum to gaining the GOP POTUS nomination........and with that, he will go on to easily defeat Hillary Clinton, if she is the Democrat nominee for POTUS. The handwriting is on the wall for all of you good folks in New York to see & understand.

Remember, Ted Cruz has openly & publicly expressed his hate, disgust and disdain for all New Yorkers.....across the board and....John Kasich is just window dressing, playing games. Do not waste your vote on people (Cruz & Kasich) who could care less about you or, are just playing for a long shot political gain at your expense. Trump is the true son of New York State with tremendous loyalty and service to his home state. Trump has served his state & people well. He will do the same with our great nation. Support & cast your vote today for DONALD J. TRUMP in the GOP POTUS Primary. GO Donald J. Trump!!!

[dp0622]

Staten island will push 60 easy.

At work now. Vote in 5 hours.

First primary :)

[hoosiermama]

Copied some of your material on tonight’s rally thread. Will link this post to tomorrow ‘s
Thanks for all the information

[hoosiermama]

I have to vote early because I work the polls on our Election Day. So I will be standing with you New York and vote in the morning here in Indiana. Let’s make AMERICA Great again

[NYRepublican72]

Not a problem. Happy to be of help.

Made America great again at 7:30 am. In and out of the polling place quickly.

There wasn’t a ton of traffic, but it was early in a school in a Suburban NY district. Proudly voted for Trump.

[fooman]

Four voters for Cruz this morning in NYC.

One of the poll workers tried to dirty trick me and say that the location was for democrats only! I quickly went back to the poll ( after having visited an alternate polling location) and voted.

[Ciexyz]

Go Trump!

[Cboldt]

-- We are all counting on you folks to deliver the coup de grace to poor Ted Cruz. --

Kasich is a zombie as far as accumulating first ballot delegates goes, and he;s still in contention - might even pick up a delegate or two in NYS.

So, the effect of a coup de grace is only to create a second zombie in the race for first ballot delegates. Cruz and Kasich missions are to see to it the race ends with three zombies!