My background in Statistics, survey formation and execution, and a PhD in conservatism (from the Rush Limbaugh Institute), tells me to not trust polls and more importantly, the organization doing them. Do I trust Rasmussen? No. Why not?
I don’t know his business model. It may profit him more to be off this early on, but to approach the bullseye as we get closer to November. Yes, I mean that. Lying to the people may financially benefit a pollster to string us along.
Leading questions, oversampling, conservatives like me hanging up on pollsters...it all affects the poll.
Rasmussen sold his polling firm but use his name.
Forgot who bought it but I recall alarm bells went off.
Like I stated any poll with 15 % assigned to other is pure BS !