Coalition will reach Abe's benchmark [Japanese election]

NHK (Japan Broadcasting Corp.) ^ | July 10, 2016 | NHK

[chajin]

In Japan's Upper House election, NHK projects Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's governing coalition will reach and could surpass the benchmark he set before the election, a majority of the contested seats or 61.

NHK's decision desk also says the governing coalition, and 2 smaller parties in favor of changing the Constitution may reach a key number.

The main ruling Liberal Democratic Party and its partner Komeito are projected to walk away with between 67 and 76 seats.

That, combined with their uncontested seats, would mean they keep their majority in the chamber as a whole.

NHK decision desk is also projecting the governing coalition, and 2 smaller parties in favor of changing the Constitution are likely to win between 75 and 85 seats in total.

If the four parties get 78, they would make up two-thirds of the chamber. That level of support is needed in both houses to put a Constitutional amendment proposal to a national referendum. The smaller parties are Initiatives from Osaka and the Party for Japanese Kokoro.

And Abe's LDP alone may secure a majority in the chamber with 57 or more. NHK exit polls and analysis suggest the LDP will likely secure between 54 and 61 seats. If they reach a majority, it would be the first time in 27 years the party would do so on its own. The largest opposition Democratic Party is projected to win between 26 and 32 seats. That would be more than a dozen down from its 47 contested seats.

NHK also projects that Komeito is likely to win between 13 and 15 seats.

Japanese Communist Party is likely to win between 5 and 8 seats.

Initiatives from Osaka is likely to win 6 to 9 seats.

It is possible that Social Democratic Party will win 1 seat.

It is not clear whether the People's Life Party will win any seats.

It would be unlikely that the Party for Japanese Kokoro and New Renaissance Party win any seat.

Independent candidates are likely to win between 3 to 5 seats.

[chajin]

Four takeaways: Shinzo Abe has nothing to fear from opposition parties; Japan will likely amend its constitution to allow for a genuine military again; Okinawans do not want U.S. bases; New Renaissance, which wanted to legalize medical marijuana, got nowhere. P.S. Okinawans should be careful what they wish for: if Trump gets elected here, Okinawa might get its wish, collapsing the local economy.

[Vigilanteman]

A buddy of mine was in the USAF in both Okinawa and Misawa, an isolated base in the northeast. The nearest big city, Hachinohe, was around 30 miles to the south.

He said the attitude of the locals couldn't be more different. Okinawa tolerated them. Misawa embraced them.

It is all about the economics. Okinawa would see more economic benefit as a tourist destination. It is already sort of a poor man's Hawaii. Misawa would see more benefit as a joint U.S.-Japan Self Defense Force base.

You need not move every base off Okinawa, just a few to give them just a taste of what they crave. The realities of the Japanese real estate market might even make it a paying proposition like selling land in Hawaii to buy land in South Dakota.

[Raymann]

Good, amend article 9. But he really needs to work on their debt.

[piasa]

Update... Abe Shinzo has been assassinated while stumping for a candidate in Japan’s next election.