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The CBO Looks Ahead to a U.S. Fiscal Disaster
Barron's ^ | July 23, 2016 | THOMAS G. DONLAN

Posted on 07/23/2016 5:59:34 AM PDT by reaganaut1

The American debt problem was almost entirely ignored at the Republican National Convention last week, and we can expect nothing more when the Democrats gather this week.

Both parties support the entitlement spending system and the decrepit tax system that fails to support it. They compete on the fiscal side of politics with impossible promises to spend more and tax less.

Imagine the U.S. Treasury as an airplane beginning to roll down the runway to take off. For a mile or so, the plane gains no altitude, then the wings start to generate lift. The wheels leave the ground and are retracted so the plane can fly smoothly through the air. Then the plane begins a rapid ascent, taking only a few minutes to arrive at an altitude of 30,000 feet.

For the time being, the Treasury is rumbling down the runway, already moving too fast to abort a takeoff. After takeoff, Americans will discover that Treasury debt is heading for the stratosphere, with consequences that are easy to imagine, hard to believe, and apparently impossible to act upon—except to make it worse.

More likely, Americans will remain blissfully unaware of the size of the problem until it’s too late.

The Congressional Budget Office issues a Long-Term Budget Outlook every year. To sum up this year’s report in one sentence, it says, “The federal budget outlook is projected to worsen considerably over the next three decades under current law, with debt growing larger in relation to the economy than ever recorded in U.S. history.”

By 2035, federal debt held by the public as a percentage of gross domestic product will surpass the peak of 106% set in 1946, and it will keep growing from there.

(Excerpt) Read more at barrons.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: cbo; debt; dollar; economy; entitlements; medicare; socialsecurity; usdebt
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To: Foundahardheadedwoman

It shouldn’t take long. In 1942 G.M. and Ford switched from cars to tanks almost overnight. To solve problems it always takes the RIGHT MAN for the JOB. That is going to be Trump’s greatest gift to this country. He will put the right man in the right job and we’ll start to see results faster than you think. Success will feed more success as the barriers constructed by the Socialists in this country are destroyed one by one. I expect a return to the constitution under Trump. That is what he has been saying for years if you listen close enough. That is why he is running. and i believe that is why he will win.


41 posted on 07/23/2016 8:11:31 AM PDT by Mollypitcher1 (I have not yet begun to fight....John Paul Jones)
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To: PGR88

The nanny state’s foundation is our unbacked currency, and the Federal Reserve

******************

Exactly right!!!! The great money printing machine and subsidizer of the banking industry. And don’t forget that the Fed also subsidizes wars and other foreign adventures otherwise taxpayers would be burdened to pay for them.


42 posted on 07/23/2016 8:16:38 AM PDT by Starboard
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To: reaganaut1

For generations, we’ve lived under the (mythical) assumption that America is incredibly wealthy.

Pay the lion’s share of NATO? Entitlements out the wazoo? Foreign aid to friend and foe alike? Another expensive new federal program? No problem! Cut the check, Louie!

Except we’re not ridiculously wealthy. Not anymore. Our factories and mines are gone or going. Those who still have jobs (I remember 40 hours, with health and dental.) are taxed to death. We simply don’t generate the raw wealth that we used to.

The only reason the whole thing hasn’t imploded — yet — is because our National Debt credit card hasn’t been maxed out and rejected — yet. The Fed is already printing money our of thin air (QE1, 2, etc.) and personally I don’t think Fort Knox holds what we’ve been told it does.

This thunderstorm has been building for generations and it will explode, sooner or later. Ask the Preppers about their top 10 disaster scenarios and see if this isn’t one of them.


43 posted on 07/23/2016 8:20:26 AM PDT by DNME (The only solution to a BAD GUY with a gun is a GOOD GUY with a gun.)
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To: Thommas
We don't have a tax problem, we have a spend problem.

And no leaders in either party willing to tackle it.

44 posted on 07/23/2016 8:22:38 AM PDT by Lower Deck
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To: Foundahardheadedwoman
Revenue from the tariff will start to decline after the first year, how far out the cross over to break even is difficult to guess. Spending cuts must also be part of the package. These actions must also include first a halt of any future entitlements, a rolling back of the most recent one - Obamacare, some how restructure the present entitlement programs on to a more financially sound basis. Some how explain to the voting public in a way that they will understand and accept that this has to be done. The Rats will demagogue this like you wouldn't believe but some how conservatives have to be successful with this PR. Conservatives & GOP politicians are horrible at this! Face it, it's fighting Santa Claus!

I am always amazed that the number of Freepers here who think that entitlements are not the problem they are. The refrain that if we ‘fire all the federal workers’ all will be well one sees constantly on this site (Yes I am simplifying in the interest of brevity!) The bottom line is you could zero out the USG payroll, entitlements still take us over the cliff. You zero out the federal payroll and federal discretionary funding we still go over the cliff!

There is a whole legal industry out there dedicated to get people on the entitlement gravy train.

Bottom line every year there are too few people working putting ‘value’ back into the economy and it's too lucrative and easy to be one of those sucking that value out of the economy. That number seems to grow regardless which party controls government.

45 posted on 07/23/2016 8:23:08 AM PDT by Reily
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To: FlyingEagle

What happens to that gross national income figure when America starts manufacturing things again and people have jobs as well as the opportunity to start small businesses without the overreach of government rules and regulations. I’m looking forward to the elimination of some of the alphabet agencies that have been strangling American enterprise.

I like to apply a little of our national history to situations to see a clearer picture. Remember when the Medic in Bastogne replied to the question as to why the wounded weren’t being evacuated? He said “They’ve (the Germans) got us surrounded, the poor bastards.” It was true that the “poor bastards” were defeated, thanks to “Nuts” and an “impossible” drive by Patton’s tanks. I believe there are still enough seeds left in America to raise a new crop of intelligent patriots. It is always darkest before the dawn.


46 posted on 07/23/2016 8:23:54 AM PDT by Mollypitcher1 (I have not yet begun to fight....John Paul Jones)
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To: randita
False. Trump mentioned it and perhaps others did as well.

Did they mention what they were going to do about it?

47 posted on 07/23/2016 8:24:07 AM PDT by Lower Deck
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To: Mollypitcher1


Good answer...good answer. I like the way you think. I'm going to be watching you...
48 posted on 07/23/2016 8:30:45 AM PDT by SoCal Pubbie
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To: Mollypitcher1
It shouldn’t take long. In 1942 G.M. and Ford switched from cars to tanks almost overnight.

There was a little scuffle called World War II going on, and a known customer who would buy everything they could sell at at guaranteed profit. I think that's lacking in this case.

To solve problems it always takes the RIGHT MAN for the JOB.

President Trump will not be the ones expected to invest billions of dollars in rebuilding industries almost from scratch. What will the investor's incentive be? A tariff on the imported goods that they are competing with?

49 posted on 07/23/2016 8:31:25 AM PDT by Lower Deck
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To: reaganaut1

Spending is only fueled by taxation.


50 posted on 07/23/2016 8:41:06 AM PDT by Georgia Girl 2 (The only purpose of a pistol is to fight your way back to the rifle you should never have dropped)
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To: reaganaut1

For Medicaid and SSN

> Taxes will be raised
> A means test/formula will ne applied (greatly reducing benefits to those who paid in with high salaries and savings)

Simple as that... if you were prudent and have savings... you will pay for others who lived the high life or had little.

Say it can’t be done...? They already do it for federal student loans....


51 posted on 07/23/2016 8:48:04 AM PDT by PigRigger
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To: Alberta's Child

They will. They will have no choice since the social security system is periodically in the red and in the next few years will be solidly in the red on a going forward basis.


52 posted on 07/23/2016 8:48:26 AM PDT by Brilliant
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To: Lower Deck

You don’t think we’re at war right now? MADE IN AMERICA is a growing “stock.” More and more people are investing in it because the demand is there. We’re tired of shoddy workmanship and foreign theft of our wealth.

The right man can turn things around pretty quickly when he understands the job. That is Trump’s greatest talent and he knows the right people who can accomplish miracles. All he needs is the chance.

Tarifs are a TOOL. Properly used, they can produce unexpected and varied benefits. You can use a hammer to build a house or equally to tear it down. A screwdriver can be many tools in one if the person knows how to use it. We’ve got to stop this garbage of thinking people living in a university setting have the right answers when they’ve never had a job in the real world. Donald Trump operates in the real world. It is the ingredient we’ve been missing for a very long time in this country.

Just watch the investors show up when the government red tape and taxing problems are removed from the scene. Agenda 21 is destroying our country. The Globalists must be destroyed. Britain has made the first step. Many more will follow.


53 posted on 07/23/2016 8:50:08 AM PDT by Mollypitcher1 (I have not yet begun to fight....John Paul Jones)
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To: Pride in the USA

ping for a later read


54 posted on 07/23/2016 8:53:48 AM PDT by Pride in the USA
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To: central_va
A 20% across the board import tariff balances the budget tomorrow.

I'm sure the millions of people who lose their jobs when our trading partners retaliate will be thrilled.

55 posted on 07/23/2016 9:09:31 AM PDT by semimojo
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To: reaganaut1

The LOWERING of TAXES and the ERADIFICATION of many Government AGENCIES and REGULATIONS will SAVE many of the worthwhile entitlement programs such as Medicare and Social Security.


56 posted on 07/23/2016 9:34:41 AM PDT by VideoDoctor
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To: semimojo
I'm sure the millions of people who lose their jobs when our trading partners retaliate will be thrilled.

we're doing ALL the buying.. they're doing ALL the selling.

That's WHY there are huge trade imbalances. It's lopsided FREE trade not FAIR trade. So as the SELLERS tremendously benefiting HOW do they retaliate?

57 posted on 07/23/2016 9:40:11 AM PDT by VideoDoctor
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To: Alberta's Child

Yes, where the healthcare money goes, and doesn’t go is very political. It will become even more political.

Currently Transgenders have an extremely high rate of HIV and other diseases due to weak immune system. Their medicines are extremely expensive.

Currently SSI disability is the fastest growing entitlement as they draw from both Social Security and Medicaid big time.

In contrast mothers and babies on Medicaid consume a miniscule amount of tax money in comparison. But most people think the opposite.

As long as people are ignorant of the facts, money for mothers and babies will continue to get a smaller piece of the pie. That will encourage more abortions and long range a declining population solve only by more immigration.

Politics has another aspect...short term entitlements vs long term dependency. Some people see welfare as a temporary program to help people thru a rough spot in their lives, or in the economy.

Others see welfare as a permanent solution. They really want a government single-payer permanent program.

Two different paradigms. Supporters of each paradigm will try to sell their view of the world. who is the better sales team wins. So far, the left has had the better sales team.

The left does not have the best sales pitch. But the left does one thing the right does not do. The left takes their sales campaign to the unbelievers and converts them.

The right hides in the choir and does not try to reach out to the undecided. Look here on FR. Many posts on many threads raise the white flag and say... We cannot convert the unbelievers. Its no use. Why try.


58 posted on 07/23/2016 9:42:26 AM PDT by spintreebob
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To: zeestephen
"The new Hispanic, Black, and Asian majority will just stop paying their taxes."

I'm "Asian" and pay a lot of taxes. What are you talking about?

59 posted on 07/23/2016 10:00:33 AM PDT by reaganaut1
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To: Alberta's Child

Isn’t that the mission of Obamacare?


60 posted on 07/23/2016 10:03:35 AM PDT by 38special (For real, y'all.)
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