I'll probably miss some things, but top of mind points for consideration and review:
*Mutually Assured Destruction kept the Cold War from going hot. The Russian mindset under Communism was reliably predictable in that they didn't believe in an afterlife, so no glory for carrying out the unthinkable. Do we have that same calculus now from a former KGB guy in Putin? I'd say they remain highly pragmatic overall...and DON'T want war.
*However, they seem to be acting/reacting as if we/NATO want war. And, our current leadership isn't helping in that perception. With current statements from Biden about cyberwar, General Milley's on Oct 5th of: "We will stop you and we will beat you harder than you have ever been beaten before. Make no mistake about that."
*Russia's call for all students and relatives of staff to return home as soon as possible...this is unprecedented, correct? I don't recall any moves like this in the Cold War
*The exercise 2 weeks ago over 3 days to practice moving 40m people to bomb/fallout shelters. I have heard that civil defense type drills are a bit more regular in Russia, but that this scale was unusual
*Some various analysis from ex-military folks I have seen is that Russia cannot go long with a conventional war in a scale needed vs a US/NATO adversary. They are fine in a smaller theater like Syria or Ukraine; so therefore they could go "hot" pretty quick if push came to shove.
*What is our motivation to poke the bear the way we are doing? Actual thirst for war? A ploy to see Russia "back down" right before an election to help Hillary? A desire to see America destroyed? An increasing desire to see the Assad regime turnover in Syria, and to what end?
My armchair guess is given the data point of the calling students home that they think war is likely; and any reasonable expectation would be that it would take 3-4 weeks from that statement to get people back; which puts things right on the other side of our election day.
My question is will the US start the war, not Russia.