[mrsmith]

“around 2034. That’s when the Trust Fund is expected to be exhausted”

True, but there’s a serious immediate problem: the government will start selling bonds to ‘pay back’ the SS fund much sooner- maybe this year, not sure.
Those bond sales will be in addition to the bonds the government sells for it’s usual reasons and will increase the government’s interest costs because of the increased supply.

I just don’t believe the actuarials have accounted for the effect of this.

[editor-surveyor]

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The governments of this world will no longer exist after 2024.
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[justlurking]

True, but there’s a serious immediate problem: the government will start selling bonds to ‘pay back’ the SS fund much sooner- maybe this year, not sure.

At the moment, Social Security is making withdrawals from the Trust Fund (and has been doing so for about 5 years), but the Fund is earning enough "interest" from the special-obligation government bonds to avoid drawing from the "principal".

But, that interest is being paid from the general fund, and of course -- they are selling US Treasury Bonds to pay it. So, it's already started.

Around 2020, Social Security will start withdrawing from the principal in the Trust Fund, and the US Treasury Bond sales will accelerate.