[FlyingFish]

Interesting comment in article: regardless of party, well more than 50% of all voters have consistently said they expected Hillary Clinton to win the election. On Sunday, that number dropped below 50% for the first time, to 49%. It fell further, to 46%, on Monday.

[Helicondelta]

“polling data show Clinton losing support among key groups, especially Independents, who now favor Trump by 48% to 33%”

[mazda77]

The all important weighting

Dem 39.29
Rep 32.32
Ind 26.82

Dem +7 but nothing on demographics. With the early voting nationwide showing almost +5 Rep and -4.5 Dem, it speaks for itself. Even the “lauded” IBD is still trying to drag her across the line.

[BlessedBeGod]

...regardless of party, well more than 50% of all voters have consistently said they expected Hillary Clinton to win the election. On Sunday, that number dropped below 50% for the first time, to 49%. It fell further, to 46%, on Monday.

Interesting...the USC Dornsife/LA Times poll re who they expect to win also has Clinton on the way down but at 55.2% and Trump on the way up at 40.2%.

[apillar]

We need to also remember that on election day the undecided break about 2-1 for the challenger which, since Hillary is running as Obama’s 3rd term, is Trump. So to most of these polls you can add another 3% or so....

[apillar]

Interesting comment in article: regardless of party, well more than 50% of all voters have consistently said they expected Hillary Clinton to win the election. On Sunday, that number dropped below 50% for the first time, to 49%. It fell further, to 46%, on Monday

That does actually matter... There are a small percentage (less than 5%) of voters that will simply vote for the candidate that they perceive as the clear winner because they want to fell like they are on the winning side. Psychologists call it the "bandwagon effect". If a race is perceived as close and there is not a clear winner, that nullifies the bandwagon effect.

[SkyPilot]

As much as I am enjoying seeing the Clintons stew in this (latest) scandal, I'll go on record as saying I believe that Hillary will "win" the election. If I am wrong, I will dance in the streets and celebrate Trump's victory.

The reasons I believe Hillary will "win" the election:

1. Rigged voting machines in selected states and counties (all she needs are very selected and slim margins in Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania). Soros rigged electronic machines, felons voting in Virginia, manipulated ballots, and other fraud has already been well documented. The poll watchers will be powerless, as they were in 2008 and 2012, and not one judge will assist with complaints. Further, there is absolute, concrete, 100% sure proof the Democrat primary was rigged (we even had live footage of one example), and absolutely nothing was done, other than some mild protests. Vote fraud and rigging has been weaponized.

2. Illegals, by the millions, "voting."

3. The continued assistance and coverup by 95% of the media.

I will continue to pray for Trump and this nation. But I don't think I am wrong.

[Cobra64]

These one and two point leads flip-flopping over the last few months are a joke. Furthermore, at this point, it should be 70/30 for Trump.

[SoFloFreeper]

Not good. (her continued lead)

Good news. (the movement away from her)

PRAY!

[Karl Spooner]

Very entertaining Clinton rally.

[ArcadeQuarters]

A 20% bias towards Democrats over Republicans and Trump still comes within 1 point.

[CincyRichieRich]

I used to love even the unique smell of the IBD print version, and the quest to find a copy while on vacation...alas, it is just an establishment tool.

[PapaBear3625]

The “Do you think she’ll win” polls are worthless.

As long as her reported poll numbers stayed at +5 or better, it was natural for people to assume she would win. As soon as the poll numbers are even, to within the margin of error, then things change.

This election will be all about turnout.

[SamAdams76]

Many people at my office yesterday were feeling good about next Tuesday where before they didn’t think he could overcome all the media bias and conventional wisdom. A real sea change took place over the weekend with regard to Trump’s chances. I see a “go with the winning horse “ effect.

[Flick Lives]

I find it amazing when these absurd low-effort polling stories get into reporting tenths of a percent, as if they are scientific measurements of a physical phenomenon. I don’t know if it’s the basic stupidity of the writer, which is most probable, or an attempt to make an absurd poll seem more scientific by surrounding B.S. numbers with enough false precision to make them appear “accurate”. Nobody would buy their poll if they said the race is pretty much an even split, but print the race as 44.7% to 43.9% and suddenly it looks very precise.

This, like most every published poll, is cheap click bait and/or propaganda. If you want real insight into the race, apply this visualization. Forget party affiliation, platforms, or policies (apparently the MSM has, because they never talk about policies). Picture yourself as a rabid Hillary supporter. Do you think they actually feel her victory is assured?

[StAnDeliver]

IBD rarely moves more than 1 point per day - they have 6 days to move to the outcome poll, plenty of time to get to 49R-45D

[Stand Watch Listen]

YET....

""It’s pretty extraordinary because Secretary Clinton has an extraordinary email arrangement with herself,” Gowdy said. “And she’s the author of her own destiny. Everything that has happened since then, it is the natural probable consequence of deciding you’re going to have a rogue email system. So, I understand she’s upset and I understand she doesn’t like the timing but she need not look further than herself.”"

10/28/2016 - REP. Trey Gowdy (R-S.C.)

[TMA62]

she probably won’t be leading tomorrow. What will the spin then be, LSM??

[NKP_Vet]

Bill Mitchell ‏mitchellvii 4 hours ago IBD poll. Trump has 15 point lead w/ Indies yet due to ridiculous reweighting magically loses the poll. ************ Once again, IBD reweights their R+3 actual sample to D+7 in order to preserve Hillary 1 point lead. Such bullsh*t. *********** Bill Mitchell 4h4 hours ago IBD ridiculous reweight: Party identification breakdown:(Unweighted) 323 Democrats/354 Republicans/327 Independents; (Weighted) 400/329/273

[bert]

What this means is that the election is within the margin for winning by fraud.

National polls are meaningless. Fraud capability in precisely the right voting precincts is the only meaningful data