Posted on 11/16/2016 7:58:18 AM PST by Kaslin
Shut up!!!
I made screen captures on this site starting on 09/14/16. I captured the screen anywhere from one to five times per day.
Why? Because I knew this would happen. I knew the site would either disappear or the figures would be fudged.
I am taking this information from my 11/08/16 17:55 EDT screen capture.
Hillary 84.4% up 11.7% (lst wk), Trump 15.3% down 11.2% (lst wk). This is a little off from Stossel’s time capture.
My next capture was at 11/08/16 22:53 EDT.
Trump 81.6% up 55% (since 11/01), Clinton 17.7% down 56.6% (since 11/01)
As you can tell, the percentage moves in the five hours were in excess of these amounts.
Oh he probably did. Many of his colleges at FNB are Trump supporters
“This story is bizarre. What point is he trying to make?”
Ah,com’on...That he should be able to keep his job..simple...
I bet on d trump in October of last year, 7:1 odds, made a nice profit.
I think the predictions were wrong because the polls failed to account for the popular/electoral vote split. Everyone was looking at national polls over and over. State polls were done and discussed much less frequently, and even less frequently were they compiled together by anybody to make an electoral prediction.
Granted, the people who did compile state polls still tended to show a Clinton win. However there were far fewer state polls to work with and they showed much more radical swings in results than the national polls, indicating unreliability.
It was a safe bet that the national polls wouldn’t switch to Trump’s favor rapidly enough for him to win the popular vote. But it was not a safe bet to think that Trump could not micro-target a few states right at the end and get his numbers up in a narrow area enough to win the electoral college.
John Stossel and the other prognosticators failed to predict events because the event they were trying to predict was then still in the future, which (at the time of their guessing) had not happened yet. Nothing is predetermined.
As a pofessional pursuit and a pastime, prediction is irreducibly probabilistic. No amount of data collection, no application of statistical methods, no reading of tea leaves or sheep entrails, no flipping of tarot cards, will overcome that truth.
Humans vary, and are inherently unredictable.
“Who bets $84.00 to win $100?”
Someone who thinks the outcome they bet on is almost a sure thing.
There were many Trump voters, including myself, who thought he was a long shot to win the Electoral College. One can hold that opinion and still bet on a Trump victory if the odds are favorable enough.
An important difference between a betting site and an election is that the former registers the intensity of preference by the participants (bettors), whereas in an election each participant (voter) is counted the same.
I think a simpler explanation for Hillary! being the odds-on favorite than that her supporters were “gaming the system” is that her true believers thought they had a near-sure thing and bid the odds to 5 or 6 to 1 in the process.
I see you made some financial arrangements as well! Nice cleanup D1!
Thank you!!
He did win OH, but I was driving around before the election.
This.
I don’t know if they purposefully twisted the polls. I don’t accept the claim that people wouldn’t answer them honestly. It’s an anonymous phone call. I’ve done phone polls, honest ones and push polls. Push polls are pretty obvious and I think most of us hang up on them, but if I have time, I’ll talk to the honest ones.
I was polled for this election and I hung up on them. I was doing something else and I didn’t feel like dealing with them, so I don’t know if the poll was legitimate. I also didn’t want anything to do with the media during this election. They polled me in the middle of the wikileaks releases and I was thoroughly disgusted by then.
My cell phone has a Palm Beach County area code. I wonder if that’s why they called. I also wonder how many people refused to even talk to them.
Really? So there's no way for the caller to identify the person? I kind of doubt that.
Ain’t nobody got time for that!
I think that’s a decent alternate opinion, but I still don’t think people bet $840 dollars to win $1000.
There’s to much to lose, and these folks got their clocks cleaned.
I hope you did as well. Easy money...
The best part, is knowing it isn’t sitting in a Leftist’s pocket anymore.
It’s sitting in mine.
gravy, LOL!
“;^)
It was crunch time, Stossel, and you behaved like indolent teenager. Were you wasted the entire month of October?
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