The Gorsuch Filibuster Shows The Liberal Base’s Clout (state by state table of senators)

fivethirtyeight ^ | April 3, 2017 | Nate Silver

[NYer]

Sen. Claire McCaskill

At least 41 Democratic senators have publicly committed to filibuster President Trump’s Supreme Court nominee, Neil Gorsuch, leading to a probable showdown with Republican Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell.

The filibuster might seem like payback for Democrats after Republicans refused to consider the nomination of then-President Obama’s Supreme Court nominee, Merrick Garland, for 293 days starting last year. Unlike Republicans last year, however, Democrats don’t have all that much power. They aren’t in the majority — and McConnell has strongly hinted that he could seek to eliminate the filibuster for Supreme Court picks if Gorsuch can’t get 60 votes. Across a variety of surveys, moreover, a plurality of voters think the Senate should confirm Gorsuch, although a fair number of voters don’t have an opinion either way. Therefore, Democrats’ political endgame is unclear.

Gorsuch is quite unpopular with liberal voters, however: By a 61-15 margin, they oppose his confirmation, according to a YouGov poll last week. Thus, the planned filibuster may simply be a sign of the liberal base’s increasing influence over the Democratic coalition. The share of Democrats who identify as liberal has steadily increased over the past 10 years. According to the recently released Cooperative Congressional Election Study, 53 percent of Democratic voters identified as liberal last year. Until recently, it was rare to find surveys that showed liberals made up a majority of the party.

But to some extent, that 53 percent figure understates the case. The CCES also asked voters about whether they’d engaged in a variety of political activities, including donating to a candidate, attending a political meeting, working on behalf of a campaign or putting up a political sign. Among Democrats who’d done at least one of those things — a group I’ll call “politically active Democrats” — 69 percent identified as liberal. These were some of the voters who helped propel Bernie Sanders to almost two dozen primary and caucus victories last year.

Oftentimes these liberals are found in states where you might not necessarily expect them — such as in the Mountain West, which was a strong region for Sanders last year. According to a regression analysis conducted on the CCES data, the proportion of politically active Democrats who identify as liberal is larger in states where candidate Trump fared poorly. But controlling for that, it’s also larger in states that have more white voters, and more college-educated voters. And it’s larger in the West than in the other political regions of the country. In the table below, I’ve estimated the share of politically active Democrats in each state who identify as liberal. Since the sample sizes for some states are small, the estimates are based on a blend of the raw polling data from the CCES and the regression model I described above.1

Where is the Democratic base most liberal?

		SHARE OF POLITICALLY ACTIVE DEMOCRATS THAT IDENTIFY AS LIBERAL
STATE	DEM SENATORS UP FOR RE-ELECTION	POLL-BASED ESTIMATE	MODEL-BASED ESTIMATE	BLENDED ESTIMATE
D.C.		87%	77%	84%
Idaho		92	74	82
Utah		85	74	80
Washington	Cantwell	78	76	78
Minnesota	Klobuchar	78	74	78
Oregon		77	78	77
New Hampshire		81	71	76
Vermont	Sanders	78	75	76
Montana	Tester	73	77	76
Alaska		84	71	75
New Mexico	Heinrich	76	73	75
Maine	King	78	69	74
Arizona		75	70	74
Massachusetts	Warren	75	72	74
Connecticut	Murphy	75	72	74
Rhode Island	Whitehouse	74	73	73
Virginia	Kaine	73	68	72
California	Feinstein	72	74	72
Michigan	Stabenow	73	69	72
Indiana	Donnelly	73	68	72
Wyoming		83	67	72
New York	Gillibrand	72	71	72
Iowa		72	71	71
Illinois		71	70	71
South Dakota		82	67	71
Colorado		69	75	70
Nebraska		73	67	70
Arkansas		78	59	70
Florida	Nelson	69	66	69
Nevada		68	69	69
Tennessee		70	63	68
Pennsylvania	Casey	68	70	68
Delaware	Carper	63	72	68
Wisconsin	Baldwin	67	72	68
Ohio	Brown	68	68	68
Kansas		64	70	66
Mississippi		73	54	65
North Carolina		64	66	65
Texas		64	63	64
New Jersey	Menendez	63	67	63
Oklahoma		63	61	63
Louisiana		61	66	63
North Dakota	Heitkamp	51	66	61
Kentucky		60	64	61
Hawaii	Hirono	43	71	61
Missouri	McCaskill	60	65	61
Alabama		61	57	59
Maryland	Cardin	58	64	59
West Virginia	Manchin	49	67	57
South Carolina		51	59	54
Georgia		49	61	51

Source: Cooperative Congressional Election Study

It’s not surprising that Washington, Oregon and Vermont are places where the liberal wing of the Democratic base dominates. But Idaho, where I estimate that 82 percent of politically active Democrats identify as liberal, and Utah, where I estimate that 80 percent do, also rate near the top. It’s not that Idaho and Utah are blue states, obviously; they’re among the most Republican in the country. Nonetheless — perhaps because a lot of moderate voters identify with the GOP in these states — the few Democrats that remain are overwhelmingly liberal.

The same phenomenon holds in Montana, where I estimate that 76 percent of politically active Democrats are liberal. That may help to explain why Sen. Jon Tester of Montana says he will vote against Gorsuch, even though he faces a tough general election campaign next year. Whether or not Democrats would issue a primary challenge to Tester, who has generally sided with the party on key votes, is questionable. Nonetheless, he’ll be relying on his base for money, volunteers and a high turnout on Election Day. In Montana, the conservatives are conservative — but the Democratic base is fairly liberal also.

By contrast, Democratic Sens. Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who will vote to confirm Gorsuch, are on somewhat safer ground. Some 61 percent of politically active Democrats identify as liberal in North Dakota, while 57 percent do in West Virginia, according to this estimate. Those figures are almost certainly higher than they would have been a few years ago. But Heitkamp and Manchin probably face more risk from the general election than from a loss of support among their base.

Nor is the Democratic base all that liberal in the Mid-Atlantic region, including states such as Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey. Instead, even the party activists in these states can have a moderate, pro-establishment tilt. That may explain why senators such as Chris Coons of Delaware and Robert Menendez of New Jersey were slow to announce their positions on Gorsuch before eventually deciding to oppose him.

[NYer]

Ping!

[Common Sense 101]

The Gorsuch Filibuster Shows The Liberal Base’s Unhinged Insanity and Inability of Dealing with Reality

[EQAndyBuzz]

” By a 61-15 margin, they oppose his confirmation, according to a YouGov poll last week. “

If the Democrats put up Hitler for SCOTUS, he would get at least 85% of Democrats favoring his confirmation. The other 15% would probably wonder what reality show is he from.

[Mr. Douglas]

...the planned filibuster may simply be a sign of the liberal base’s increasing influence over the Democratic coalition.

---

If this is true, the democrats are doomed.

[bert]

More people voted for Hillary than Trump

The Rat base is therefore larger.

[bert]

actually, barring a successful and lasting Trump revolution, America is doomed

[reformedliberal]

Exactly.

Over half of a shrinking demographic is still a shrinking demographic.

[Liz]

Cloture is the only procedure by which the Senate can vote to place a time limit on consideration of a bill, or other matter,........ and thereby overcome a filibuster.

McConnell files cloture on Gorsuch nomination
United States Senate Democrats ^ | Apr 4, ’17 | Senate Democratic Leader Charles Schumer / FR Posted oby mdittmar This evening, Senator McConnell filed cloture on Executive Calendar #33, Neil M. Gorsuch, of Colorado, to be an Associate Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States.

Wednesday, will be the intervening day for cloture. Under the rules, the cloture motion will ripen one hour after the Senate convenes on Thursday, April 6th.

[jmaroneps37]

This is a useless ridiculous chart and classic Natie Silver. Did you put on a white medical coat when you made this one or a sports jacket with patches on the elbows?

Natie here is some free advice: kissing their ass and telling the Democrats they have “clout” isn’t going to stop Gorsuch or get you back the “clout” you lost by being soooooooooooo very very wrong last November. Go away.

[Avalon Memories]

DC is not a state, but notice how — very subtly — almost everyone in the Left and Right media now includes it as a state. There is a subtle, but unmistakable push to have DC accepted as a state in the public’s consciousness. Then one day they will push for statehood and almost no one will object.

[pt17]

Democrats are not doomed. They’re like a snake that can regrow its head when chopped off. That happens whenever the pubby in the public garden gets lazy and stupid.

[Mr. Douglas]

actually, barring a successful and lasting Trump revolution, America is doomed

---

You’re preaching to the choir. And my position on this is that we’ve been beyond a human solution to this for at least a couple of decades. Trump is “too little, too late”. It’s why I bought my farm/forest in south central KY in 2008, two weeks before the election, and moved there, from Seattle, in 2011”. It was the second smartest thing I ever did, the smartest being marrying my wife.

[scooby321]

Sen. Claire McCaskill is a Lame duck Senator no Todd Atkin going to help her

[JLAGRAYFOX]

Hint to Nate Silver.....if the Democrat Party stays on the “Schumer/Pelosi” denial course...they will lose 8-10 Senators and 15-20 House Seats in the mid-term elections of 2018. That sort of “devastating” loss will effectively destroy the Democrat Party, politically!!! Ream my lips...good folks, Pundits, Pollsters, Commentators, etc. of the Obama/Clinton media have nary a clue as to the reality of current day politics!!!

Obama...who is now hiding outside of the United States has effectively killed the Democrat Party!!!

[JLAGRAYFOX]

You are 100% correct. Ms. McCaskill will suffer a massive political defeat in 2018 and win lose her seat!!! You can also add Tim Kaine & Elizabeth Warren to the Democrat loser list!!! Bank on it!!!

[SmokingJoe]

No. The Gorsuch filibuster shows the stupidity and insanity of the Democatic base. By filibustering Gorsuch, they guarantee the nuclear option and a far more conservative judge when Ruth Based Ginzburg kicks the bucket.

[upchuck]

Great news! Our beloved state is NOT on the list.

South Carolina Ping   
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[pepsi_junkie]

According to the recently released Cooperative Congressional Election Study, 53 percent of Democratic voters identified as liberal last year. Until recently, it was rare to find surveys that showed liberals made up a majority of the party.

How coincidental that the blue collar whites bucked the party in the last election to vote for Trump. Are we to believe that they now call themselves liberals? Or perhaps the party is becoming more liberal the way Detroit became more black: white got out.

[Art in Idaho]

Hey Nate, are you sure there are any liberal dems in Idaho?