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What Tesla’s “Inexplicable” “Ponzi Scheme” Valuation Says about the Stock Market
Wolf Street ^ | 11 April 2017 | Wolf Richter

Posted on 04/12/2017 11:20:44 AM PDT by Lorianne

In fact, it’s not “inexplicable” at all. ___ Tesla shares rose to $313.38 this morning, giving the company a market capitalization of about $51 billion, surpassing GM for a moment as the most valuable American automaker. This left some industry insiders wondering about tulip bulbs.

“It’s either one of the great Ponzi schemes of all time, or it’s all going to work out,” mused Mike Jackson, CEO of AutoNation, the largest dealer group in the US. He was speaking at a conference hosted by the National Automobile Dealers Association and J.D. Power. “It’s totally inexplicable, as far as its valuation,” he said.

But he was wrong. It’s not “inexplicable” at all. It’s very explicable.

Tesla makes some nice cars, as you’d expect from a company that charges an arm and a leg for them. But Jackson’s statement wasn’t about its cars, their quality, or electric versus internal combustion engines. It was about Tesla’s market capitalization of $51 billion.

The company has accomplished a lot: Electric cars have been around for longer than internal combustion engines. When they first appeared in the 1800s, they competed with steam-powered cars and horses. What Tesla has done is put them on the map. That was a huge feat.

Now every global automaker has electric cars. They all, including Teslas, still have the same problem they had in the 1800s: the battery. But those problems – costs, weight or range, and time it takes to charge – are getting smaller as the technology advances. And the competition from the giants, once batteries are ready for prime-time, will be huge, and global.

So in March, Tesla sold 4,050 new vehicles in the US, according to Autodata. All automakers combined sold 1.56 million new vehicles in the US. This gave Tesla a record high market share of an invisibly small 0.26%. Volume-wise, it’s in the same ballpark as Porsche. GM sold 256,007 new vehicles in March, for a market share of 16.5%. In other words, GM sold 63 times as many new vehicles as Tesla did. For percent-lovers, that’s 6,221% more. Even if Tesla quadruples its sales in the US, it still will not amount to a significant market share.

SNIP


TOPICS: Business/Economy
KEYWORDS: ponzi; ponzischemes; stockmarket; subsidies; taxpayers; tesla; teslastock

1 posted on 04/12/2017 11:20:44 AM PDT by Lorianne
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To: Lorianne

Amazing what a company can do when they receive subsidies from taxpayers...

But my money is still that this is a type of ponzi scheme. There is just no way Tesla is on-par with GM in market value.


2 posted on 04/12/2017 11:25:47 AM PDT by TheBattman (Gun control works - just ask Chicago...)
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To: Lorianne

All built on taxpayer subsidies.


3 posted on 04/12/2017 11:29:49 AM PDT by Alcibiades (Save the Republic.)
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To: TheBattman

“Amazing what a company can do when they receive subsidies from taxpayers..”
~~~~~~~~
Now, if only they could build those flying Jetsons-type cars we were all supposed be riding in by 1970.....


4 posted on 04/12/2017 11:30:13 AM PDT by LouieFisk
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To: Lorianne
Would the idea rather than the individual prevailed in the free market without the billion $$$ subsidies?

Should the Federal government subsidize every idea?

If so to whose idea as well as how would the Feds know what idea will be successful

What protects the taxpayer from failure? Investors have choices when faced with risk; the taxpayer is obligated with threat of jail aided by the barrel of a gun and forced to comply.

Equality under the law/economic neutral playing field has only briefly been applied (Slavery corrupted the "beginnings").

Congratulations goes out to Musk, played the game well with his brilliant ideas/innovations. Don't agree with the route or the system, however it is what it is.
5 posted on 04/12/2017 11:36:30 AM PDT by rollo tomasi (Working hard to pay for deadbeats and corrupt politicians.)
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To: Lorianne

If it looks to good to be true...it is! Tulip Bulbs 2.0.


6 posted on 04/12/2017 11:37:30 AM PDT by Don Corleone (.leave the gun, take the canolis, take it to the mattress.)
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To: Lorianne

EPS is $ -4.86

P/E is not listed. Stock price is pure bubble.


7 posted on 04/12/2017 11:41:14 AM PDT by dynoman (Objectivity is the essence of intelligence. - Marilyn vos Savant)
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To: Lorianne
What about the 182 times earnings of Amazon, or the 200 times plus of Netflix?
8 posted on 04/12/2017 11:45:22 AM PDT by Sam Gamgee
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To: dynoman
My guess is that this hangs on the economy. Disposable income is vital. If someone who can crank out this technology starting out at around $12,000 sales price will make bank.

I contend that if you take public money/subsidies, any and all patents/IPs should be voided and the technology open to everyone.
9 posted on 04/12/2017 11:46:41 AM PDT by rollo tomasi (Working hard to pay for deadbeats and corrupt politicians.)
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To: dynoman

The Krispy Kreme of autos...


10 posted on 04/12/2017 11:54:04 AM PDT by Professional
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To: Sam Gamgee

The top ten of the sp500 have a pe ratio collectively of a bit more than 40x earnings.

Democrats and socialists have conspired to turn the sp500 into a self fulfilling enrichment process and power builder. Look at the people in and around these top holdings....just the simple allocation of the sp500 indexes makes the process self fulfilling.


11 posted on 04/12/2017 11:55:47 AM PDT by Professional
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To: Lorianne

Maybe lots of affluent greenies and Hollywood idiots running up the stock price.


12 posted on 04/12/2017 12:15:23 PM PDT by Will88
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To: Lorianne
I can't wait for Terrafugia to go public!
13 posted on 04/12/2017 12:18:48 PM PDT by pabianice (LINE)
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To: rollo tomasi

That is a good idea!!


14 posted on 04/12/2017 12:25:45 PM PDT by SgtHooper (If you remember the 60's, YOU WEREN'T THERE!)
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