Posted on 06/21/2017 8:11:04 PM PDT by Texas Fossil
Russia, Iran and the Baath regime under their control panicked with the Raqqa operation following the Tabqa operation and resorted to slander, then to attacking the SDF.
Russia’s approach changed when the YPG-led SDF launched an operation to liberate Tabqa. Russia had always played both sides in Bab and Shehba as well as Aleppo, developing relationships with SDF/YPG on one hand and Turkey on the other. When the operation to liberate Tabqa launched, Russia’s approach changed further, even as far as issuing threats for some issues. This approach by Russia was very clearly displayed in a statement a couple days before the operation to liberate Raqqa city center was announced. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov issued a statement that ISIS will resist in Raqqa.
THEY PUSH THE REGIME TOWARDS TABQA
The Raqqa operation started after this statement by Lavrov. From the moment SDF fighters started to enter the city center, the Syrian Baath regime started to advance from the southwest of Raqqa, namely the Tabqa route. This advance was an attempt to keep the logistics and supply lines open on that route to allow breathing room for ISIS in the city center. It was also meant to pull the SDF into conflict in Tabqa, in the southwest front, and weaken the liberation operation on the city center.
REPEAT OF TRICKS IN BAB
Russia and the Baath regime had agreed on Turkey invading Bab. This agreement was made in return for the gangs in Aleppo retreating. The regime would advance from Deer Hafir and cut off ISIS’ route, but Russia and the Baath regime didn’t abide by this agreement. The ISIS routes for procuring logistical supplies, weapons and ammunition were kept open, so much so that allegations of the regime sending arms and ammunition to ISIS over Aleppo ran rampant. This relationship with ISIS was developed so Bab would be handed over to the Baath regime in case of a possible retreat, but ISIS also decided to go against this agreement, handing over Bab to the Turkish state.
Russia and the Baath regime are now using the same tactic with ISIS in Raqqa. Targeting SDF units in the southwest, not cutting off roads to Dêir ez-Zor and Meyadin, targeting SDF-held villages and territory in the southwest is a repeat of the tactic they used with Turkey.
ISIS ATTACK SIMULTANEOUS WITH THE BAATH
The Baath regime has been trying to stall SDF in the south and southwest of Raqqa for some time now, and the other day they launched attacks on Jadin village while ISIS attacked SDF positions in the Battani, al Berid, Qadisiye and even Sinaa neighborhoods in Raqqa city center previously liberated by the SDF. It is not a coincidence that these attacks started at the same time. They were simultaneous and deliberate. The clashes that ensued when SDF fighters retaliated were still ongoing yesterday in these neighborhoods.
COALITION STEPPED IN
The Coalition stepped in when Baath jets joined in the attack on Jadin. According to a statement by the Coalition forces,
a Syrian SU-22 attacking the SDF positions in Jadin to the south of Tabqa was downed by a Coalition F18 at 18.43 Syrian time. The Coalition statement said the Syrian planes attacked the SDF fighters’ positions to the south of Tabqa at noon as well and that Russia was contacted after this attack and Syria was warned.
The Coalition also announced that they don’t want conflict with the Syrian regime or Russia, but that they will defend the SDF against any threats.
The Baath regime had already announced one of their planes being downed before this statement.
OFFICIAL STATEMENT BY THE SDF
SDF Spokesperson Colonel Talal Silo issued a written statement on the issue yesterday, and it is as follows:
“In the Wrath of Euphrates Operation to surround Raqqa, following the heroic advance of our forces and especially after the advance of our forces and our partners fighting against terror and the liberation of several neighborhoods in the Great Battle launched to liberate the capital of the gangs Raqqa city, regime forces launched a deliberate extensive attack in liberated areas with artilleries and tanks on June 17. The attack took place in the area liberated 3 months ago as part of the operation to liberate the Tabqa town and Euphrates Dam. These attacks aim to void the Raqqa Liberation Operation. If the regime forces continue their attack on our positions, we will use our right to legitimate self defense and retaliate.”
THREATS FROM RUSSIA AGAIN YESTERDAY
Russian Defense Ministry, supporting the Baath regime, announced that they will consider “anything that flies” as targets in areas their forces are deployed. Russia also suspended the agreement with the US to avoid collision in the air. This agreement had been suspended once more recently for a short while after the Trump administration hit the Shayrat Air Base in Syria. In the announcement, the Russian Foreign Ministry claimed that the US didn’t inform them first before hitting the Syrian plane.
Meanwhile the Baath regime deployed armored vehicles and military forces to the area after the plane was downed, and that is a sign that they are preparing for new attacks.
WHAT DOES JADIN HAVE TO DO WITH ISIS?
The Baath and alliance block also launched an intense disinformation attack two days ago. The Baath claimed that their plane was downed while on a mission bombing ISIS territory. This claim was repeated by the SOHR. But the fighter plane was downed near the Jadin village, which had been liberated by the SDF 4 months ago. The Jadin village and the Birdeli village where ISIS actually is are 22 kilometers apart. The plane was downed over Jadin village, not in ISIS territory. With this distortion of truth, they wanted to sever the connection between the Jadin village attack and ISIS launching attacks in Raqqa center.
RUSSIA KNEW 3 DAYS BEFORE
One of the Russian official statements some three days before the plane was downed stated that the US could possibly hit the Syrian army. The question whether Russia made the Syrian army and fighter planes attack SDF territory to get the US to down their planes is, rightfully, out on the table now.
WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?
The US-led Coalition and SDF forces on the field are very clear. Russia first acted reasonable, then issued a threat-filled statement. The Baath regime continues with the deployment. It isn’t clear whether Russia will push forth the Baath forces or not. If they do, the Baath forces can take a harsher stance, even though they have been hit again. And Turkey is eager to turn this conflict and tension into an opportunity.
ATTACKS ON EFRIN AND SHEHBA
There have been intense attacks since last night on Shehba and Efrin and their surroundings. The Turkish state’s gangs settled in Azaz bombed Enab, Teneb, Qetma, Qestel Cindo and Velat Qadi villages in Efrin’s Shera district yesterday in the morning hours. Then they bombed Celbir and Keşteyar villages, the Shehba Camp’s surroundings in Der Jamal and the Der Jamal town itself. The gate in Qetam village which allowed for thousands of migrants to cross over to the Efrîn Canton was also targeted. The Turkish state’s gangs settled in Mari bombed the Tal Rifat and Şex Hilal areas nonstop yesterday, and the Revolutionary Forces retaliated. Dozens of mortar shells hit the villages in Efrîn and Shehba. Another significant point in the attack was the bombing of the villages to the Kilis side.
WILL IT AFFECT THE RAQQA OPERATION?
The operation to liberate Raqqa is in full swing, but if the attacks on Efrîn and Shehba on one hand and Tabqa’s villages on the other, the SDF might be stretching a bit thin. The US displayed a very clear stance by downing the Syrian plane so the operation wouldn’t be delayed. But Russia’s stance continues to be partially unknown.
Syria Ping
This is really getting hairy, as the end game is nearing.
The big players are getting bold in taking risks, and confronting the US. Even ancient enemies seem to have a temporary détente, to focus on opposing Kurdish/American gains.
Chess and hardball.
Neither Russia or US want a battle between us.
This is no reason to do it.
But we are both there. Our stupid Senate has not made this any easier. Stupid. Stupid.
Stupid election stunt had nothing to do with the Russians.
It had everything to do with the ComDems and the Russians.
Senate just does not like what Trump is doing to the slush funds. Taking the candy away.
Much more detail here than was in Western media coverage related to downing of the Syria plane. Thanks for posting — it gives me a better understanding of the players involved.
My pleasure. The only people who actually know what is happening are in Syria.
None of the think tank BS means anything.
It has been that way from beginning.
Far too many players.
There is a lot of noise, but the actual events are covered well on Twitter and other media. The regional news sources are pretty good. Some are clearly propaganda, others very credible.
They are about 8 hours later than us time of day.
The Marines have been operating the Howitzer batteries 24/7. SDF are operating at night to cut down on sniper exposure.
The electronic monitoring has taken out some of the leadership. ISIS is crippled.
With SDF working on them 24/7 it must be hell. (where they belong) ISIS takes pills to stay awake but after prolonged periods of it, they simply collapse. All those are good things as far as ending this.
Now the Turks and Iranians? totally a new game.
I agree, thank you for posting the article. Clears up a lot of things that are going on.
They will be even worse than ISIS
It seems that Erdrogan wants to be the Caliph himself, we need them out of NATO long ago.
“Neither Russia or US want a battle between us.”
The Russians have long had a culture of brinksmanship, which they view as an effective instrument to advance their interests - they trained the North Korean and Chinese Communists in this.
We have varying interests, often at odds, and allies whose interests are even more inimical.
The sanctions issue (against Russia over invading Ukraine) is heating up again with new sanctions being proposed, and the new French President Macron looking to relieve those sanctions (which hurt French farmers).
So beyond the end game in Syria raising the stakes, there are other points of tension with Russia. It seems to be heating up.
Why the Baath “regime” and not the Turkish “regime”? Or the Saudi “regime”?
Actually, all 3 don’t wish ISIS to end.
SA has become quiet. Other 2 are actively impeding the progress in Raqqa.
Biggest story of yesterday and today:
Turkey and Syria prepare for an embargo and attack on Rojava
https://anfenglish.com/rojava/turkey-and-syria-prepare-for-an-embargo-and-attack-on-rojava-20600
Baathist panic is certainly palpable and Russia’s shift is concerning... Throw in Turkey and Iran and, as you say, it’s a whole different ball game.
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