Posted on 07/18/2017 2:04:59 PM PDT by ckilmer
"Costly environmental regulations and subsidized renewable generation have exacerbated and accelerated baseload power plant retirements," the draft said. "However, those factors played minor roles compared to the long-standing drop in electricity demand relative to previous expectations and years of low electric prices driven by high natural gas availability."
Geo and bio are a drop in the bucket. Wind and solar are unreliable.
How long will nat. gas be cheaply available? Those units were considered ‘peaking’ or ‘dead start’ units. NOT base load because of costs(maint. and fuel) and lower capacity.
Diversity was always a desired goal.
Long term growth has slowed but if it accelerates again new units cannot be put ‘on line’ in a short period.
Nuclear should be kept in the mix and can be economic if the storage of waste issue can be allowed to proceed.
Scrubbed coal is plentiful and reliable.
The gov’t. as in many cases is creating the problem.
The wash post and the reading eagle article is, as usual, muddying the waters and providing ‘semi’ fake news.
“Diversity was always a desired goal.”
That’s racist.
30% from coal is a reasonable compromise. 60 day fuel supply at the point of use, no disruption from terrorists or EMP. Just pure capacity reliable.
How long will nat. gas be cheaply available?
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US natural gas reserves are high and rising.
according to the EIA natural gas production is expected to increase through 2040. see page 60
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/0383(2017).pdf
you cans see the mix of fuels for electricity through 2030 in the same report on page 74
https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/0383(2017).pdf
the EIA sees wind outstripping hydro in electricity production within the next year or so in the same report on page 78.
How will the USA be able to raise production amid rising demand for natural gas through 2040?
This artcle from the EIA makes the case.
https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/index.cfm?page=natural_gas_reserves
The EIA estimates that the USA has dry natural gas gas these (after removal of HGL) equaled 338 Tcf.
U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that as of January 1, 2014, the United States had 2,136 Tcf of unproved technically recoverable resources of dry natural gas.
.......
Natural gas has become a base load producer of electricity. Its not merely a peaker.
Here is a fun map of US electricity production broken out by nat gas coal,wind hydro etc.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/national/power-plants/?utm_term=.6aadc4dee469
Thanks for the info.
I have been out for some years.
Does the estimated growth of wind rely on continuing gov’t. subsidies?
Good question. I didn’t check.
The subsidies are set to expire in 2020. They won’t be renewed.
What’s central to the argument for the renewable energy people is that coal and nuclear costs are static whereas wind and solar costs are falling fast.
That’s for right now. Technology changes fast... well sort of fast. There’s a super critical carbon dioxide generator that may be available after 2019 which will reduce costs for coal and nuclear. and new 4th generation nuclear reactors which are better/faster/cheaper than current generation nuclear reactors. they ‘ll be available sometime in the mid 2020’s.
So is natural gas, certainly as plentiful and reliable as coal. And at a cheaper cost and without the associated headaches. An electrical grid based primarily on nuclear and natural gas would meet our electrical needs for decades to come. And at a lower cost.
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