As a Scripture Scholar who dabbles in History via Biblical History, I would think the question a difficult one to answer, especially if one is looking for odds rather than a single example, for two reasons:
1) History tends to be written by the victors, and so unsuccessful insurgencies would be more easily submerged in the mists of time.
2) Definition of terms: what constitutes an insurgency (the Scots under Bonny Prince Charlie?); and what constitutes success—both for the insurgents and for the ones putting down the insurgency (the Irish rebelled multiple times against the English, and for a long time England held on to the whole of Ireland, and England still has a foothold).
The Jews rebelled multiple times against the Romans. There is now a Jewish state—whether there is still a Roman state is more debatable.
All good points and thank you.
Scots example might work. Pay off greedy, corrupt warlords long enough to wipe out true insurgents, while the pawns still think their commanders are on their side.
Offer exile to nominal top leaders. Repopulate region with friendlies. Repeat.
The Jewish state has not been continuous.
The Roman state, in part, has been in continous operation for 2,770 years. It still continues in the form of the Vatican and Catholic church. In Roman society religion was a state function and its offices held by state officials. When Constantine made Christianity the state religion he basically moved out the old gods for a new one. Christians filled the pre-existing state offices, which became the Catholic Church.