North Korea's latest nuclear test yield estimated at 250 kilotons: US monitor

Straits Times ^ | 2017/09/13

[TigerLikesRooster]

North Korea's latest nuclear test yield estimated at 250 kilotons: US monitor

SEOUL (AFP) - North Korea's latest nuclear test probably had a yield of 250 kilotons, a US monitoring group said on Wednesday (Sept 13) - much higher than official estimates.

Pyongyang conducted its sixth and largest nuclear test on Sept 3, saying it was a hydrogen bomb that could be fitted into a missile. That prompted global condemnation and heightening tensions over its weapons ambitions.

The US Geological Service put the magnitude of the resulting earthquake at 6.3, and the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organisation and Norwegian agency NORSAR had raised their initial figures to 6.1.

As a result, the respected US website 38 North, which is linked to Johns Hopkins University, said it was raising its estimate for the yield of the blast to "roughly 250 kilotons".

The figure is more than 16 times the size of the 15-kiloton US bomb that destroyed Hiroshima in Japan in 1945.

"This large explosive yield is also quite close to what 38 North had previously determined to be the maximum estimated containable yield for the Punggye-ri test site," said 38 North.

[TigerLikesRooster]

P!

[blackdog]

Who sold it to them?

[mad_as_he$$]

Who has the best estimate and what is the agenda of the involved persons making these estimates?

The 250 number seems more likely based upon the seismic event.

[TigerLikesRooster]

It is in the article. Estimates have now all converged.

US Geological Service: 6.3

Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organisation: 6.1

Norwegian agency NORSAR: 6.1

[Bobalu]

Hmmm, if it was 250kt then it likely was an actual hydrogen bomb and not just a boosted fission weapon.

It would mean NK has a medium-scale city buster and an ability to make an EMP weapon of significance.

Probably the old Teller design.

:-(

[neverevergiveup]

Hopefully we are telling China that unless they want the entire Korean peninsula, Japan to all have nukes, they need to defang fat boy and send in their own troops to take over the nuclear sites.

[Ancesthntr]

...and Taiwan.

[Zathras]

Correct, an actual H-bomb but a much better design than Teller.
From the external view, it looks very modern and based on the peanut radiation channel and multi stage secondary.
The last parts are the re-entry shielding and the safety to keep it from detonating on the launch pad.

[shanover]

As we dither waving around worthless UN sanctions,diplo-speaking on to deaf ears and moving the red line,the Norks are perfecting their nukes. They think they have the ace in the hole. Cheers to Madeline Al-not-so-bright and treasonous POS Hilary Clinton’s treasonous,POS pervert,husband. Obama and Bush totally blew it also. Now President Trump has to clean up the mess.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Send in Jimah Cahtah.
He’s an expert.

[butlerweave]

Testing for Russia or China ?

[C19fan]

This increase in estimated yield to 250 KT is still compatible with a Boosted Fission weapon not a Thermonuclear bomb. The George nuclear test in 1951 proof testing boosting had a yield of 225 KT. Whatever the reason the Norks, if the weapon is deliverable, have true city destroying capabilities.

[AdmSmith]

(URGENT) N.K. leader says his country near to goal of completing nuclear force
http://m.yna.co.kr/mob2/en/contents_en.jsp?cid=AEN20170915007900315&site=0200000000&mobile

No text yet.

[AdmSmith]

Very good article;

This facet of North Korea’s command and control structure has implications for how and when Kim might have to consider using land-based nuclear weapons in a potential crisis. With the stresses and concerns about maintaining communication with the Strategic Rocket Forces command — surely one of the first things an attack would try to sever — and the concerns about decapitation and preemption, when an attack starts, does one really think Kim will wait to see whether his conventional forces can repel the United States and South Korea before considering using nuclear weapons? Almost certainly not. Given the time it takes to assemble, fuel (while North Korea relies primarily on liquid fuel missiles, at least), and move nuclear forces out to their operating areas, and their possible vulnerability as this is being done, if Kim wants to truly retain assertive control over his nuclear forces, weapons would have to be launched early in a crisis.

Once the artillery shells start flying, Kim probably cannot be confident that he can retain control over, and communication with, his Strategic Rocket Forces units — forcing him to worry about unauthorized use. And if he waits too long, he may lose the window of opportunity to launch nuclear weapons successfully at all if they start getting destroyed. This was the concern with Pakistan in the early 2000s, and it is even more acute with North Korea today so long as it has a relatively primitive command and control architecture.

https://warontherocks.com/2017/09/command-and-control-in-north-korea-what-a-nuclear-launch-might-look-like/

[AdmSmith]

Zhu Feng said this 2010: Zhu Feng [朱锋], a professor at the School of International Studies at Peking University, told a seminar in Seoul on Wednesday that Pyongyang has gained increased confidence in its nuclear technology after two underground nuclear tests and will proceed to test with a nuclear warhead. “The Chinese leadership believes that the North has sufficient nuclear [weapons manufacturing] capability and is now entering a stage where it is focused on minimizing the size of a warhead,” Zhu said…. Zhu [further] said that if North Korea collapses, China would only allow South Korea to take control over the North if Pyongyang launched a pre-emptive attack on the South. China otherwise will try to deal with a collapsed North Korea in the United Nations Security Council. He denied a claim that China wants to absorb the North if it implodes, saying such a scenario is incompatible with China’s global geopolitical strategy. https://adamcathcart.com/2010/08/04/zhu-feng-on-north-korea/

[AdmSmith]

Zhao Tong, a North Korea expert at Beijing’s Carnegie–Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, said it was too early to tell how the issue might affect Trump’s visit. “Many things can happen between now and then. New developments can emerge that seriously change the calculations,” he said.

“We are likely to see more tests, maybe including another nuclear tests … It won’t take long before the North Koreans really feel the pain [from the recent UN sanctions]. So I think the North Korean strategy is to use this very short time before they face real problems domestically, to completely conclude their nuclear and missile programs, to achieve all of the key technologies … So they are likely accelerate and to conduct the tests that are most important for them and then quickly soften their position and come to diplomacy.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/16/us-must-stop-north-korea-threats-says-china-kim-jong-un-military-equilibrium

[AdmSmith]

Next stop Mount Paektu
https://www.yahoo.com/news/mystery-shocks-north-korea-apos-114918974.html?.tsrc=fauxdal

[TigerLikesRooster]

He talks as if N. Korea's nuclear weapon system were fully complete. I thought the point of preemptive attack is to destroy it before it happens. They are still experimenting with the delivery device. Even if they have some, it would be in early stage and fairly unreliable. Given the choice, there is also a motivation for missile crews to refuse to launch a missile which cannot be readied in time or won't cause damage to their enemy, but invite their certain death.

These people always find an excuse for no action. They have played down NK's nuclear program, and saw no reason to take action. Now they say NK's program is so far gone that it cannot be stopped, and again saw no reason for action. Is the rule by no action the wisdom of mature superpower? Except dealing with some small states in Mid-East?

I see persistent narrative emerging: trust China, across-the-board anti-Russia, and no action on N. Korea. If they think this is how they impress their enemies to deter their aggression, they are talking to echo chamber trying to impress each other than their enemies. Probably good for their career prospect, though.

[AdmSmith]

All “civilized actions” (read “financial sanctions”) are slow, but the question is, do we have time?