North Korea's latest nuclear test yield estimated at 250 kilotons: US monitor

Straits Times ^ | 2017/09/13

[TigerLikesRooster]

If a detonation creates a crack which allow lava to escape magma chamber and into the crater lake on the mountain top, that will be a disaster. I remember reading some article which said that the mountain has several magma chambers branched out of it, and some may be fairly close to the test site.

[AdmSmith]

Yes, that would be a deus ex machina game changer for the NK-issue.

[TigerLikesRooster]

The pattern has been that they always opted for action (or no action) far less than required for resolving the problem. Even now that seems to be the case. We have a real urgent situation and some want to settle for sanctions which, as you said, take time. I am pretty sure that, if the current situation is less urgent, we could have settled for something even less than what is being implemented now, for example, a token sanction of a few small Chinese companies, which Chinese would have predictably opposed vehemently.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Widespread nuclear fallout (from the test,) volcanic eruption (caused by the test) are two unpredictable black swans, although odds of the latter are pretty low in my opinion. Maybe we get "lucky" with another 100+ kt test, but it is likely that Kim Jong-un won't see the need for it now that he proved he can pull it off. His priority now would be to complete long range nuclear missiles which can reliably deliver a nuclear warhead.

There may be another kind of black swan but I have not found a reasonable candidate yet.

[TigerLikesRooster]

It turns out I overlooked another possibility: Kim Jong-un's health crisis

Due to his obesity and family medical history, he can develop a sudden medical episode such as heart attack or stroke.

His father had both in his late age, which lead to his death, but in his thirties he was nowhere near his son in term of weight. Kim Jong-un's medical crisis could kick in much sooner.

[TigerLikesRooster]

Correction: which lead led to his death

[AdmSmith]

http://heavy.com/news/2017/08/kim-jong-un-height-weight-health-fat-smoking-injuries-how-much-tall-north-korea/

[AdmSmith]

Before posing for a selfie in front of a shabbily-dressed North Korean fisherman who was floating behind her on a dilapidated wooden skiff, Wei pondered the contrasts between her homeland and its impoverished ally. “The difference between China and North Korea is the political system,” she mused. “China is a developing nation. North Korea is a socialist nation.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/14/quite-backwards-chinese-tourists-gawk-at-impoverished-north-koreans