Even a 10% to 15% drop in attendance an TV ratings would be a serious blow to the NFL.
I hope
On the reality side, for most teams....the vast majority of tickets for 2017 have already been bought, and likely will be used. For marginal teams, there might still be 100,000 tickets still out there for remaining games. Course, some guys holding tickets might be angry enough to just burn them.
But then you come to playoff games which tickets have yet to be printed or sold. My guess is that they will have to discount those by 20-percent...maybe more, to get people in the stands.
On the fan paraphernalia deal, this occurs 3 months ahead of Xmas and will have a major affect on sales. I’ll take a guess that the sport shops take a 50-percent hit. You can figure future orders past January will really slow down, and it’ll affect NBA gear as well.
Then we come to TV. Normally 3.5 billion would occur as the networks hand the profit over to the NFL. I’d take a guess that 30-percent of people aren’t watching, and the amount will be closer to 2.5 billion. So they will be on a lesser budget.
Here’s the thing which few think about...this whole kneeling thing would have to continue through to November 2020 minimum. Ticket sales in the spring of 2018? It’ll be awful slow and most clubs will have to discount their tickets by 30-percent minimum. A lot of guys are permanently gone from NFL sports gear and viewing NFL TV.
So ask yourself...how long can they survive? This season is not a problem. But if you start seeing games in 2018 with 5,000 seats empty as being normal? If your gear isn’t being bought? Salary cuts will probably be discussed next spring. NFL recruits won’t be offered prime salary deals. I suspect some teams will be in serious financial jeopardy by end of the 2019 season. And if Trump wins in November 2020? Well, that would be the end of NFL football, I think. They can’t survive through 2024.
My wife says she heard that Budweiser is distancing themselves and I hope a few other do too - if Papa John moves away, I'll buy his pizza for a year.