No they haven't. I have been the most ardent anti-EV guy out their now I get it. I am driving a plug-in Hybrid at the moment ( long story, I don't own it ) the quiet, the smooth and torque of the line, man the last one is addicting.
Tangent to this I went to EvTechExpo www.evtechexpo.com @ the Suburban Showcase in Michigan about 2 weeks ago.
What did I see at the show?
* I thought Bon Jovi was giving a free show, I was backup up on Grand River quite a ways to get in.
* Almost 600 Vendors I was shocked. every part of process covered,
Here is my take on this....
Their are 15 to 20 battery efforts that are promising anywhere from 1.5X to 5X the power density and in the last year more than 500 Million venture capital as been given to these firms, some have locked up customers / proprietary agreements.
So think of this. The Chevy Bolt's max range is 238 miles. 238 x 1/5 ='s 357 miles. You get that now in your average car. If we go 2X or 3X Katie bar the door. The million dollar question is charge times. Their are efforts to get that down somewhere in the 10 to 15 minute range. I can live with that and "Store Dot" in Israel, claims a 5 minute charge with their biopeptide electrolyte battery, with 300 mile range.
I think we are the verge of a disruptive technology possibly greater than the MS-0S/Windows 95/Intel/ the Mac revolution that allowed us to do work like we never did before.
And no one see's it, I do, I even know a VC guy and he disagrees with me. What is even more funky is, I haven't found a specific Electric Car Mutual Fund or ETF ( note many of these Miracle Batteries are Private Placement/VC/Angel Money arena ).
What you are not hearing is their are airborne applications for this tech, and the pictures in the booths at the EvTechExpo had aircraft with no cockpits, hmmm I wonder who is tinkering with on the bleeding edge stuff. think about it, very lower to no cooling drag, No turbo's needed to compensate for thinner air, and low noise signature.
I'd never thought I see this in my life time. You make wake up in 2 or 3 years an this revolution is in full steam and everyone is saying holy $h!t when and how did this happen.
Now Team Trump? Who do you think makes a big chunk of the worlds batteries? China. Hmmmm ya think all his team that is putting NAFTA / Trade to China might be to give MI, OH, IN etc all the states that make cars a chance so that China doesn't become the No. 1 Electric Car Manufacture in the world?
I can't wait for E-Power for General Aviation, it maybe the shot in the arm it desperately needs...
I love the RX350h F-Sport I just leased. I leased because they don’t have an all electric car yet.
My thought is, how are you going to have an all electric semi or bulldozer? Airplane? At some point wouldn’t you think small nuclear engines would be the answer that convert to electricity?
Why haven’t there been electric cars in the INdy 500?
Just answered my own question, the cars can’t go that fast yet very long.
I read that the Chevy Bolt comes with a $7500 tax credit. (Another source said $6000, IIRC.) Great. Another case of the gov’t taking money from the people, siphoning some off, and returning some as a “gift” to modify our behavior. If a Bolt will cost $36,000, it still costs SOMEONES $36,000, plus the gov’t’s cut to give a buyer a credit. For a TINY car. And I say that having owned compact cars (plus something bigger) for almost 40 years.
Charge time is, as you say, a biggie.
Let’s say you can get charge time down to 16 minutes, and 1/4 of the cars out in some area need a charge away from home or work. Now you need either 2x the “energy” stations, or 2x bigger stations, or some such combination, than presently exist. This is not “impossible”, by any means, but it is a consideration.
What is the relationship between charge time and charge efficiency, looking at ALL factors involved, included keeping the battery and charger cool (or at least not too hot) when charging, and transmission to charge stations?
What is the relationship between battery reliability and charge time?
What % of batteries will fail within, oh, say, 10 years of car life, assuming non-optimum usage and conditions?
How badly will self-discharge harm these newer batteries if allowed to go “too low” over an extended period? It’s one thing to have to replace the battery in one’s laptop, or a std. lead-acid car battery. Batteries to power an automobile are a whole ‘nother matter. My experience is that if major IC drive train components are not abused and fluids are changed per maintenance schedule, said components usually last indefinitely with regard to time, and at least 150k miles. Capacity (power available) reduces only slightly. Batteries deteriorate to 60% capacity fairly rapidly — check the warranties in EV’s and Hybrids carefully...
LG has done a pretty good job with battery reliability & stability (though I still question it long term). Will new, higher capacity / faster charge batteries really be better? How many years until we are sure? Engineering almost ALWAYS involves tradeoffs.
Having a lot of experience with rechargeable batteries, I am just NOT impressed with their reliability with time, even when cared for as best as practical. (I still use many[!] of them, in apps small and large, but find them frustrating.) Is planned obsolescence back with a vengeance?
I keep hearing / reading torque, torque, torque. Can average drivers handle this, or will it, given average human response times, attention, etc., get them into trouble? I could burn rubber with every vehicle I ever owned, and none were close to being muscle cars. (Ok, I really had to dump the clutch in my Honda CRX 1.3 to burn rubber, back in the day, and really wound it out on on-ramps, on occasion, but, it went over 200k miles B4 I needed a new clutch, and the engine never did show any sign of failure — just somewhat lower mpg, which was partially due to tire choice.) In any event, I’m not so sure I want the bulk of drivers around me having high-end sports car acceleration, for their sake and mine.
What happens when, not if, the power grid, even assuming it can be upgraded to handle all this, goes down for any length of time, over a large area.? Think PR now, or the 2009 ice storm in the mid-south. In our 2009 ice storm, most gas stations were back up pretty quickly w/ generators, and many individuals & critical operations had enough gasoline stored to get by until the stations were up. Individuals’ storage of electricity is a much more expensive proposition, and “backup” supplies at local charge stations seems totally unfeasible to me.
Most of the people I know who owned hybrids liked them, but did not go back to them, and no one I know has graduated from a hybrid to a fully electric vehicle. Why, I do not know, but decreasing disposable cash for middle class families is perhaps part of the reason.
Some of the above is addressable. I even agree that large numbers of all electric vehicles will be on the road in my lifetime. But, I will be very surprised to see MOST of the vehicles on the road all-electric in, say, 15 years, barring very drastic gov’t intervention.
I would add:
What is one of the biggest problems for most families not on the government dole?
Lack of time.
Another interesting effect will be lowered prices for gasoline as demand decreases, but then the lower price will slow down electrics. There is no similar parallel to this in the Windows / Mac world you reference. The oil companies will fight, and fight hard.