About one-third of the Senate, and one-half of the Chamber of Deputies are up for election. President Macri is hoping to gain majorities in both chambers, perhaps with help from friendly smaller parties and independents.
In a key race, former President Fernandez is trailing in her Senate race, in Buenos Aires, by 7 points.
This is the third big victory of the weekend - three for three - across three continents (Czech Rep., Japan and now Argentina), following on our rousing success in Austria last week, and prior successes this year in Norway, Germany and New Zealand (where Winston Peters stabbed us in the back after the election).
At this time, I can give results for the Senate races (3 Senators from each of 8 districts) (equal to one-third of the Senate):
Peronist: won 8 (net loss 9) (with carry-over 29)
Cambiamos: won 12 (net gain 9) (with carry-over 26)
Others: won 4
As in the U.S., one-third of the Argentine Senate is up for election at a time. What is different, in Argentina, three Senators are elected per district, two from the first place party and one from the second place party in each district). So, even with an enormous victory, which this was for Cambiamos, the composition of the Senate changes only incrementally from one to another election.
I can now give a partial accounting of the races in the lower house. About half the lower house is up for election each election, with members elected by proportional representation within districts. As with our lower house, members are apportioned to districts by population.
Cambiamos did very well, pulling 42 percent of the vote nationwide and winning 61 seats (for a net pick-up of 19 ). With carry-over, this gives Cambiamos 107 seats (out of 257). Cambiamos will need help from centrists within the peronista party and from small center to right parties to move legislation through the lower house.
My sense is that the peronista party, once dominant, will continue to atrophy, and a multi-party system emerge, with a well defined left and right. At this time, since I’m don’t recognize the specifics of who was elected from the peronista party, I can’t speak to how many are from the left and how many are from the center and, therefore, I can’t determine whether Cambiamos has achieved a working majority in the lower house. With a net pick-up of 19 seats, I suspect it has.