[BroJoeK]

CodeToad: "You wouldn’t get it if you waited a billion years.
Chemically speaking, things happen fast, not over billions of years."

As Miller-Urey demonstrated in 1954.
But chemical processes leading to life would surely require millions of steps and each could only happen under ideal conditions for that step.
If such ideal conditions were at one end of the Earth for step 12,397 and at the other end for step 12,398 then we might suppose some considerable time elapse between those steps, right?

[CodeToad]

Go ahead and map that out mathematically and let’s see if 4 billions year has been long enough.