Posted on 12/02/2017 1:37:52 AM PST by Kaslin
FINAL UPDATE - The votes are in, and the ayes have it. After a marathon evening of debating and considering amendments, the US Senate has approved the GOP's tax reform bill, which would simplify the tax code and cut taxes for the vast majority of American households, small businesses and corporations. Every Republican voted yes, except for Tennessee's Bob Corker. Democrats uniformly voted no. This is a big legislative victory for the GOP, which overcame a great deal of ferocious opposition -- much of it rooted in misinformation -- to pass the legislation. Up next, a conference committee with the House. But here's your summary for tonight:
FINAL: With Vice President Pence presiding, the US Senate approves a major tax cut & simplification package, 51-49. The bill will now head to a conference committee, where it will be merged with the House-passed bill.— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 2, 2017
UPDATE III - It's now looking official: Senate Republicans have the votes to pass tax reform. Arizona's Jeff Flake announced he's jumping on the bandwagon, and the finalized legislation includes a (paid for) amendment sought by Maine's Susan Collins that mirrors the House-passed SALT (state and local tax deduction) compromise. That strongly suggests that she'll be a "yes," too. Add it up, and that's 51, negating the need for Vice President Pence to break a potential tie. Depending on Bob Corker's mood in a few hours, McConnell might even get all 52 GOP votes. But all he really needs is 50-plus-one, and he says he's got 'em:
BREAKING: McConnell walks onto the floor and tells reporters: “We have the votes.”— Frank Thorp V (@frankthorp) December 1, 2017
ORIGINAL POST - The Republican-held House of Representatives did its part by passing a tax overhaul earlier this month, with zero Democrats supporting the effort. That bill cut taxes and boosted after-tax incomes, on average, across every income group in the country, and is projected by nonpartisan analysts to grow the US economy and create close to one million new full-time jobs. It would also lower the tax burden on job-creating small businesses (key small business advocacy groups have endorsed the Republican push), and make America's extremely high statutory and effective corporate tax rates far more competitive internationally. But we've seen this movie before. With the "resistance" in full demagogic throat, and Democrats bound in lockstep opposition, will the GOP's narrow Senate majority fumble the ball, as they did on Obamacare? We'll know soon enough, and tea leaves are mixed. A vote is expected later today. As we brace what's next, let's first note three developments from yesterday (see update) that may portend a successful outcome (see update II) for Mitch McConnell's conference:
(1) John McCain is a committed "yes." As the Senator who more or less single-handedly killed his party's "repeal and replace" efforts in July, having him clearly on board is a huge boon to Republican leadership. McCain's official statement touted the expected benefits of the bill -- acknowledging concerns about it, but ultimately determining that the legislation's upside was strong enough to secure his support:
After careful consideration, I have decided to support the Senate #TaxReform bill. Though not perfect, this bill will deliver much-needed reform to our tax code, grow the economy & provide long overdue tax relief for American families. https://t.co/BeWZAT0SjM pic.twitter.com/6qwYhmyE5p— John McCain (@SenJohnMcCain) November 30, 2017
He even specifically addressed and endorsed the proposal's provision that would repeal Obamacare's tent pole, the federal individual mandate tax: "I have also argued that health care reform, which is important both to the well-being of our citizens and to the vitality of our economy, should proceed by regular order. This bill does not change that. As a matter of principle, I’ve always supported individual liberty and believe the federal government should not penalize Americans who cannot afford to purchase expensive health insurance. By repealing the individual mandate, this bill would eliminate an onerous tax that especially harms those from low-income brackets. In my home state of Arizona, 80 percent of people who currently pay the individual mandate penalty earn less than $50,000 per year," he wrote.
(2) The nonpartisan Joint Committee on Taxation released its "dynamic scoring" analysis that the Senate bill would add less than $1 trillion to deficits over a decade, as opposed to the on-paper $1.4 trillion figure reached under "static scoring." The reason for this is that JCT anticipates the tax relief package would add nearly one percentage point to GDP growth over the next ten years, resulting in new revenues. Many supporters will argue that JCT underestimates the economic benefits of tax reform, but their report still offers two positive data points:
Jt Tax Cmte forecasts tax bill will increase GDP "by about 0.8 percent on average over the 10- year budget window. That increase in income would increase revenues, relative to the conventional estimate of a loss of $1,414 billion..by $458 billion over that period."— Chad Pergram (@ChadPergram) November 30, 2017
(3) For what it's worth:
Just spoke w/ Senate leadership source who I'd characterize as hopeful but never quite confident on the "repeal & replace" whip count over the summer. Sounds *much* more confident on tax reform today, despite some issues still being ironed out. #fwiw— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) November 30, 2017
That was the state of play late yesterday afternoon, with my well-placed source telling me McConnell and company were in a "really good place" in terms of corralling the requisite 50-plus-one votes. The source stopped short of guaranteeing passage at the time, but described potential holdouts as playing an active and "constructive" role in shaping the bill throughout the process, carried out through regular order. Susan Collins is said to be in a decent spot, and McConnell's "substitute amendment" (effectively the bill that was formally debated on the floor) was co-sponsored by...Lisa Murkowski. The three squeakiest wheels, I was told, were outgoing Tennessee Senators Bob Corker and Jeff Flake (who want a deficit-related "backstop" to reduce the tax cuts if economic growth falls short of targets), and Wisconsin's Ron Johnson. Johnson been characterized as a "hard no" in the media, but he's a pro-business, low-tax conservative at heart. I'm not so sure he's still in the 'nay' column, considering his evolving posture (this was from Wednesday evening-- and see update below):
We still have work to do, but I have been working with the administration and Senate leadership to make progress toward a better bill. - rj #taxreform— Senator Ron Johnson (@SenRonJohnson) November 29, 2017
The bigger challenges appear to stem from the other two Senators, who emerged at the center of some floor drama last evening, which bubbled to the surface in full view of reporters. (My source quoted above still sounds optimistic, but last evening was a setback). Relevant parties spent the overnight hours seeking to hammer out an accommodation to address Corker and Flake's deficit concerns after the Senate parliamentarian ruled that a proposed "trigger" mechanism compromise did not pass procedural muster under reconciliation rules. Might that eleventh-hour wrinkle cause the upper chamber GOP to once again face-plant? Stay tuned for the yeas and nays, which may again blow up in embarrassing fashion -- or could result in a big policy and political win for Republicans. In the meantime, the Left is shouting as loudly as possible to kill the bill. Some of their biggest claims are false. Equip yourself with the facts, and help educate others. The empirically-supportable truth is that the vast majority of taxpayers stand to benefit from tax reform. Nevertheless, every single Senate Democrat marched along to Chuck Schumer's beat and voted against even debating the proposal, some of whom defended their decision with nonsensical explanations like this:
I voted against the motion to proceed on the Republican #taxreform plan because I haven’t seen a final bill. I’m still trying to work w/ my R colleagues & @realdonaldtrump to find a bipartisan way forward.— Senator Joe Manchin (@Sen_JoeManchin) November 29, 2017
He couldn't vote to advance a debate over how the final bill would look because he...hadn't seen the final bill, or something. Got it. I'll leave you with a parting thought for Mssrs. Corker and Flake:
Think very carefully, Sens Flake & Corker.
If you jointly jeopardize tax reform, it would (a) risk defeating your own long-held policy goal, (b) reek of anti-Trump pettiness, & (c) reinforce idea that GOP should prioritize personal loyalty to Trump in primaries. Lose-lose-lose.— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 1, 2017
UPDATE - As I predicted above, Johnson is now a 'yes,' and despite last night's worrisome snag, my sources are telling me that things are again looking good. They stopped short of an airtight guarantee, but both said they expect a successful vote at some point today:
?? Sen. Ron Johnson tells Milwaukee radio WISN 1130 minutes ago he is a "yes" vote https://t.co/b0eJAzNIJL— J.D. Durkin (@jiveDurkey) December 1, 2017
"The question seems to be, how many Republican votes are they going to get? Is it going to be 50, 51, or 52? But, at this point...it would be really shocking if they didn't get to 50 which is what they need." - @guypbenson— America's Newsroom (@AmericaNewsroom) December 1, 2017
This is what I've heard within the last hour, having spoken w/ several plugged-in sources. Sounding like 49 locked-in 'yes' votes, w strong likelihood that at least 1 more comes into the fold. Leadership optimistic about a vote later today. https://t.co/59dtanMrcl— Guy Benson (@guypbenson) December 1, 2017
UPDATE II - It looks like this is happening (or maybe not?):
BREAKING: Second-ranking Senate Republican, John Cornyn of Texas, says GOP has the votes to pass sweeping tax overhaul.— The Associated Press (@AP) December 1, 2017
New: Sen. Bob Corker tells @siobhanehughes the bill will probably pass:
https://t.co/wspkmPMJ0H via @WSJ— Richard Rubin (@RichardRubinDC) December 1, 2017
Big potential problem for GOP leaders: Susan Collins disputes Cornyn’s claim that they have her support for the GOP tax bill. (They see her as their 50th and pivotal vote)
“I can’t imagine why Senator Cornyn is speaking for me,” she told me. “I speak for myself”— Laura Litvan (@LauraLitvan) December 1, 2017
An eventual consequence of taking the generous SALT deductions from the Blue states will be that BS citizens will be screaming bloody murder for tax relief from their state. The Dems wont give it but new tax cutters will look much more attractive. This may give conservatives a chance in many areas. Wont happen overnight but their will be an effect. Migrations will pick up too with other consequences.
I thought we used to scream bloody murder when the Democrats did this with ObamaCare and other bills - jamming them through without even knowing what was in the final bill?
-
Yeah. And I say it’s long past time where we play the game by the same rules they feel inclined to follow.
I’m not too happy either - I lose my extra deduction because of my age so after all is said and done I only realize a $100 increased standard deduction which amounts to a crummy $12 tax savings. This sucks!
Umm...
So manchin and that other so called moderate dem once again fell in to a straight dem party line vote. Time to put some serious resources into taking those Trump state senate seats. No more of this moderate bullshit. They’re schumer puppets and we need to use this vote against them.
Just because they keep saying it over and over doesn’t make it true.
The confusion is understandable when people like Kelly Conway are out there using the same phraseology.
It’s very intentionally deceptive.
“How in the heck do I deserve that moniker?
By objecting to my Federal taxes being jacked up by thousands of dollars?”
Because you’re someone who is thinking only of himself. I don’t know why you think this is going to be a negative for you, particularly since there isn’t a finished product for us to plug into our personal circumstances. I’ve been watching the “very early” news broadcasts ( it’s just after 4 a.m. here) and all I am seeing is optimism that what’s been done, while by no means perfect, is a step in the right direction. So while I’m sorry you think this is going to “screw” you, evidently people think that when it’s in final form, it will benefit the bulk of taxpayers.
The problem with taxation in recent years, is that it was full of carve outs to “take care” of everybody’s individual circumstances ( or at least a long list of categories) and maybe, just maybe, you’ve been getting a free ride under the old system and perhaps should be paying more.
Yes I live in one of the bluest of blue stares and this will make my taxes go up by thousands. What is going to happen is that Home values are going to plummet. Many will now be under water in their mortgages and this will tank the economy for awhile. Let’s start another housing crisis. That said, Home values will need to be reassessed and that may bring property taxes down a bit. This tax bill will be worse than Obamacare for millions.
I hope you’ll report back when you actually do your taxes because as I calculate there is only a small group of people earning a 400K to 416K as a married household who will potentially have a 2% increase and only on that portion of their income from 400-416K. The lower taxation % on the rest of their income should offset that tax.
There is a 10K allowance for State/local taxes, thanks to Susan Collins.
At this point no one knows how their particular situation will be effected but I find your sky is falling for me projections premature at best. I speak for many in the Blue States when I say if it costs me personally a couple extra thousand dollars (and I think it won’t) than I am glad to do it for the good of the country and for the massive effect on the National debt, the return of industry in out country and the step towards decreasing the size of Government intrusion.
Good points!
First it was corporations leaving high tax states for lower tax states, then leaving the country altogether.
Oh please.
So people on this board who objected to being raped by ObamaCare were and are guilty only thinking for themeleves?
Moreover, you don't know me. You don't know my friends and family members who will be affected by this tax increase.
And furthermore, there are many Freepers on this board who have raised the same issues with this "tax cut" as I have.
“MAGA is dead to me.”
So when can we expect your opus?
“It’s all over now but the crying.”
Fake news.
House & Senate bills are not the same. There will be a reconciliation between the 2 or both houses of Congress. We don’t know what the final bill will be yet.
Have you ever objected to prevailing opinions on this board?
Ever?
Have you ever objected to anything the Federal government had done or was trying to do to you?
I got it, but it is pretty early here.
Neither bill prevents large tax increases on millions of middle class families by destroying or capping our deductions - and I highly, highly doubt that wil be fixed in reconciliation.
True.
This is from Forbes:
Realtors Predict Tax Bill Will Cause Housing Prices To Drop In Every State
For all those folks who claim to be champions of the retired set, for many people their home is their largest asset.
But, gee - how "selfish" of them to not want their home to lose value because of this tax bill.
Good thing this guy isn't "selfish."
“This tax bill will be worse than Obamacare for millions.”
Fake News.
This tax cut bill is going to open the eyes of millions of people who never had any idea they lived in a high tax state because Fedzilla is currently subsidizing the high tax states.
There is no Constitutional reason for the Federal Gov’t to subsidize the high tax states. It’s not fair to the rest of the nation.
Another pathetic piece of legislation that purports to reform and reduce taxes, but is nothing more than deductible reform for individual taxpayers. If you think it’s a good thing to reduce/eliminate adoption credits, SALT deductions, mortgage interest, long-term care for elderly, and other fiddly farting around with deductions then this bill is for you.
Nobody in 2016 ran on this crap. They ran on tax cuts. What the GOPe delivered is pathetic.
Fake News!
For starters folks like me get a 24k Standard deduction in the tax bill. That’s a big deal for us.
2ndly, and more importantly it is morally & ethically WRONG for Fedzilla to subsidize your high tax state or any high tax state. If states want to keep their taxes high the rest of America shouldn’t be paying for it.
3rdly, where’s that opus?
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.