Under an analysis using a calculator from the University of Michigan’s Population Studies Research Center, the current population estimates would have the following effect on representation in the 435-seat Congress.
Gain seats:
Colorado +1
Florida +1
North Carolina +1
Oregon +1
Texas +2
Lose seats:
Illinois -1
Michigan -1
Minnesota -1
New York -1
Pennsylvania -1
West Virginia -1
Crap, you posted that while I still typing my reply.
Only Red State to lose a seat is WVA. Blue States lose 5 seats.
That would take effect after the next redistricting round in 2022 and show up for the 2024 and 2028 presidential elections.
Of course no state would lose House seats if the size of the House was increased.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see New Jersey added to the list of states losing a House seat. Most states lose seats because their population is growing very slowly compared to other states. There are counties in New Jersey that have actually lost population since 2010.
Colorado +1
Florida +1
North Carolina +1
Oregon +1
Texas +2
Lose seats:
Illinois -1
Michigan -1
Minnesota -1
New York -1
Pennsylvania -1
West Virginia -1
NET:
Red +2
Blue -1
Purple -1
Overall, a wash.
Machts nicht.
When these blue states send us their people, they aren’t sending their best. The are sending Democrats.
You can even build a trend package off this for 2030, and project out that Illinois will likely lose at least one...maybe even two in the 2030 episode. I would suggest that Michigan goes down another in 2030 as well.
I think the more interesting thing here is that you have eleven states where district lines have to be redrawn in 2020/2021. There will be intense battles over the new districts created.
Alabama -1
Arizona +1
Colorado +1
Florida +2
Illinois -2
Michigan -1
Minnesota -1
Montana +1
New York -1
North Carolina +1
Ohio -1
Oregon +1 (siphon vote from CA no doubt)
Pennsylvania -1
Rhode Island -1
Texas +3, perhaps +4
West Virginia -1