Posted on 01/04/2018 4:26:41 PM PST by DoughtyOne
GDP during the Obama “recovery” averaged 2%. Half of the average recovery, 1/4 the Reagan recovery. We are not seeing a bubble now, we are seeing a return to “average”, which will be followed by “better than average”. Thanks to increased GDP and the Tax Bill bringing $ trillions of “repatriated” money we will see our first Trump surplus. In a year long term interest rates could be 1 percent higher. This could depress the market value of outstanding 30 US Treasuries dramatically, allowing us to retire some at a deep discount. If this happens even a little bit...Katie bar the door. Dow 40,000.
What happens when markets get oversold? Investors buy up shares in those companies soon afterward. While I can't point to a thing that Obama did to help, the markets did stabilize in the year following his inauguration. This led to a normalization of the markets, and it resulted in big gains in 2009. If you stayed invested, you likely made the majority of your losses back, and then some.
That one year contributed greatly to "stock market gains under Obama," and skewed his overall numbers. If you look at late 2013 through Election Day 2016, the markets were generally flat. Liberals either aren't aware of this (highly likely), or simply choose to cherry-pick. Regardless, we likely would've maintained that stagnation under a Hillary Presidency, though her favorite sectors might've benefited from favoritism in policies.
I'm to the point in my 401(k) where a good day can shoot my balance up thousands at a time, and I'm starting to shift my allocation to a slightly more conservative mix. Definitely enjoying this winning!
Thanks Lou L.
In preparation for this post, I did look at the history of the market back through 2012. I also looked at certain points in time like early 2009, 09/11/2001, and other periods too.
Your comments are dead on target about Obama’s early years and the movement of the market. Your reasons stated were right on target too.
Without looking for exact figures, my recollection is that the 2015 and 2016 prior to the election probably saw a 1.5-2.0% change during the period up or down. It was a lackluster time period. The early 2016 gains before the election were 3.4%, but I believe 2015 was a down year by roughly the same numbers, perhaps a little less.
At any rate, it wasn’t a time to gloat about, if you were Obama, in relationship to Trump’s market.
I agree with your take on things, and I am glad you are fairing well at this time. Great news.
All the best...
bkmk
On Friday the DJIA went up over 220 more points.
The market is now 41.4% higher than it was the morning of 11/07/2016.
The ETF "MAGA" doing quite well...also KOL (coal)
Good to know.
“:^)
Thank you, and I’m sorry to hear about your computer.
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