Posted on 01/21/2018 11:54:19 PM PST by lowbuck
Election 2018 is going to be just as turbulent an election season as 2016. An enlightened or enraged electorate will be rushing to the polls this year, elated or outraged with Washington, DC and President Trumps agenda.
I am confident that Republicans will retain the United States Senate. Republicans will gain seats even in the face of The Blue Wave since Democrats nationally have gone so far left, and the progressive grassroots want Obama policies on steroids from the Democratic Party. Red-state Democratic incumbents face pressure from their constituents, but Democratic base will fire back at these DINOs (Democrats-In-Name-Only) and launch primary challenges.
The House of Representatives, however, may turned into a blue-wall shellacking. Republicans have held power in the Peoples Chamber for the last 8 years. The caucus is more conservative, and has ditched one Speaker. Paul Ryan is listening to the conservatives and the grassroots, but with the latest shutdown, Republicans risk appearing more dysfunctional than ever. Even though in 2016 Trump won in 12 House Districts currently represented by Democrats, his populist platform might not buoy Republican contenders for 2018.
Worse yet, Real Clear Politics has registered a 10-point to 16-points advantage for the Democratic ticket going into November. The overwhelming turnout for the Year 2018 Womens March all over the country should also concern Republicans. Liberals are investing time, energy, resources to flip seats in fly-over states, too. At the Womens March in Downtown Los Angeles, I saw so many posters featuring profanities, vulgar attacks against President Trump and the Republican majority, but I also saw frequent references to vote, vote, vote. The Blue wave stood out clearly.
But will the latest shutdown turn into a brick wall for Democrats or Republicans? The federal government needed a continuing resolution by January 19th to ensure payment for federal employees, then military, and it provided a long-term solution for the CHIP program plus a delay of onerous Obamacare taxes. Republican leadership included programs that Democrats wanted, yet only six House Democrats voted for the CR, including California Congressmen Jim Costa because he wanted the CHIP funding; and Salud Carbajal because Santa Barbara County needed the emergency funding.
Despite five US Senate Democrats voting with the GOP majority, the CR didnt pass the Senates 60-vote cloture threshold. Minority Leader Chuck Schumer deserves the publics blame. He cried to the press that his caucus refused to fund the government for another month unless amendments were added to grant legal status to illegals. There it is: Democrats have shut down the government over illegal immigration. Surprisingly, this talking point came from Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, a get-along type if there ever was one. Not only that, House Speaker Paul Ryan informed his Leadership to go home for the weekend. These GOP leaders are calling the Democrats bluff. I dont give them full credit, however. Real leadership under President Trump in the White House has stiffened the spine of Congressional leaders, at least somewhat.
According to the latest polls, Democratic recalcitrance is not helping them, and its only going to get worse, judging by what happened to the Republicans during the Shutdown Showdown from 2013. That year, Republicans only controlled the House, and they passed a CR which included defunding mechanisms for Obamacare. Speaker John Boehner didnt want to go along with the plan at first, but the caucus pushed him to follow through. Yes, the government was shut down, but for the same reason as now: Senate Democrats would not pass the CR. Majority Leader Harry Reid was confident that he could marshal public opinion against the Republicans. His targets included conservative colleague Ted Cruz, who led a 22-hour non-filibuster filibuster outlining to the public how devastating Obamacare had become to working Texans. Eventually, a resolution was reached, and Republicans ended up wounded a little by the press. Then came the Obamacare rollout, a devastating Democratic failure. Coupled with the upcoming six-year itch against Barack Obamas party, and Republicans were riding a wave into victory for Election 2014.
So, can Democrats expect a lingering backlash in their favor later this year? I strongly doubt it. First of all, President Trump was elected specifically for his opposition to illegal immigration. Democrats are on the losing side of this debate by shutting down the government over DACA. Even Democratic voters in California have voiced their opposition to Schumers shutdown, regardless of their views on the illegals. Whats worse for Democrats is that Trumps signature legislative achievement (unlike Obamas in 2013) is gaining in popularity. The Tax Reforms are working out for businesses large and small. Individuals are enjoying the benefits, and they are seeing past the lies pushed by the press and the Democratic Party.
The Democrats not only shut down the government, but Chuck Schumer, with signature tone-deafness, pitifully reports to website visitors this message: Sorry, cant help you right now. Even worse, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi just took her dwindling caucus out for dinner to celebrate, all while our military doesnt get paid. Three weeks later, Americans will continue to appreciate Trumps signature successes, and Democrats will suffer lower approval ratings going into November.
I sense that Democrats are going to be kicking themselves for going along with their radical, progressive base on immigration, suffer a national blowback, and lose further credibility in the eyes of the voters. Democrats who voted for Trump will remember why they rejected their partys presidential nominee in 2016 and vote against them again in 2018.
If Republicans stand strong against amnesty and hold the #SchumerShutdown meme over the minority caucus, then Republicans can look forward to holding the House as well as gaining seats in the Senate. The GOP leaders should be kissing President Trumps feet because he has put his foot down, willing to fight for the American peoples priorities on immigration. Prediction: The #SchumerShutdown will shut down Democratic chances for Election 2018. Republicans will lose at most ten House seats, but retain power in the House of Representatives.
I think the Republicians can gain seats in the Senate as so many Dumbocrats are up and running against not only the other party but their own if they are not "lunitic left enough". Sort of like Labour in Britian today.
The house is more dicey unless the Republican candidates begin to talk about what the voters are concerned about. A look at the recent "special election" in Wisconsin shows the Democrat sounding like a Trump supporter and getting the win.
Your thoughts?
That and the memo they promised to release... yes!
< href=”=”https://youtu.be/yuCuuYUQFXM">(Unbelievable)</a>
Hello Yoe,
The link to youtube did not work for me.
See you are from the great state of Arizona. Any opinions on the Senate race? I like what I have seen of McSally but would appreciate a view from “boots on the ground”.
A very good analysis except for the lack of factoring in how the FBI/DOJ scandals and the Muellar investigation will effect the vote.
With any luck, this will also end the myth of single payer health care....not available every time little Chucky Schumer has a rash in his diaper.
No wall, no vote, 2018!
The Gutless/Stupid Party will not use Democrats own words against them. How many times have we been given golden opportunities to win but fail to use them, and thus lose?
Make it hurt. Dem constituencies get no cash. Send the entire migrant relocation apparatus home, the EPA, the UN delagation. Stop food stamps and welfare payments if the military is not being paid. Make it hurt.
“No wall, no vote, 2018!”
This is the post of the day! It distills the outcome of the election to the one consequential item to track that will likely matter. That is, if Trump doesn’t get off his ass and start to build the physical wall, by hook or crook, regardless of the pushback he gets from the Marxocrats and their RINO colleagues, then the Stupid Party will suffer massive losses due to the failure of a large number of the voters to show up in the fall. This is his “Read My Lips” issue. Nothing else will matter. Not anything. The entire future of what’s left of this country will hinge on this. Count on it!
I'm not sure how much of this article is sarcasm and how much is reality. The nature of the shutdown news, and of the news media in general, it to de-motivate people from voting. The goal is that the Tea Party and others motivated to vote become disillusioned and despair of politics.
The strategy of the Democrats is to motivate the far left to become Soros volunteers who go door to door targeting Democrat doors and GOTV-Get-Out-The-Vote.
You saw the massive turnout of Democrats in Alabama? That was due to an effective GOTV. That is the plan of the Democrats.
The shutdown serves the Democrat goal of demoralizing Republicans and Tea Party.
I don’t know about that. Most people I know don’t care if 12% of the gubmint shuts down. Many wish it would really shut down.
SchumerShutdown is more than a meme. That trivializes it.
Many of the People are too stupid to predict - that said, I think the tax cuts and the idiot dem shutdown will help us.
The rats chose to defend the wrong hill at the wrong time. It will certainly cost them in November.
I just hope President Trump can withhold the pay of non-working federal employees during this fabricated shutdown. No paid vacation for these people. It would resonate with President Trump’s base.
There was nothing massive dem turnout in Alabama. There was massive Republican non-turnout. Alabama is a case that predicts nothing and really shows what happens when the GOP in fights and eats its own.
As for the Schumer Shutdown deflating conservatives, I dont think so. Why would I be deflated when the democrats are making this fight about amnesty and the GOP, for once, is not budging? This isnt an impasse over some arcane budget matter. This is about the whole ballgame.
I am not buying the Blue Wall thing either. Yes, the Dems are motivated but they have no message other than chaos.
“Thoughts?”
Democrats are propagandists. They’ve taken lessons from the best one of all, Herr Goebbels, not to mention the
“journalists” at Pravda and Izvestia.
They will hornswoggle large swaths of the electorate to vote for them through the usual routine of doing it for the “children” or some such nonsense. (It never fails.)
(One can always trust Democrat scu&bags to be Democrat scu&bags.)
IMHO IMHO
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