Carter Page: Global Warming Believer?
Supply and Demand: Deep-digging Next Steps Toward Sustainable SolutionsCarter Page - 2nd December 2015
Carter Page considers key drivers that will determine the long-term implications and success of the current climate talks in Paris.
At the end of the first day of the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Paris (COP21), French President Francois Hollande, U.S. President Barack Obama and senior members of their staff had dinner together at L’Ambroisie – an upscale restaurant near the Bastille. In the surrounding city blocks of the 4th Arrondissement, far more modest monuments stood with little attention on the Boulevard Beaumarchais which leads up to Place de la République, the epicenter of these hubs of solidarity. Across streets in the neighborhood as well as other locations around Paris, pairs of shoes were left as part of a makeshift surrogate demonstration, after large-scale protests were understandably banned in the wake of security concerns following the terrorist attack a few weeks earlier. Despite some important recent advances in the introduction of technology innovations and the shifting balance of the supply mix which they have enabled, the limited progress on sustainable energy solutions to date ensures that any such societal transition of the type which this week’s protesters have advocated will represent a long road ahead. But a new momentum is clearly palpable.
In the wake of one of the largest gatherings of world leaders in history and despite restrictions on civic activism in the streets, the voice of concerned citizens may continue to follow a virtuous cycle which has been increasingly seen of late. Although even many optimistic observers predict that this month’s talks will avoid any formal agreement, the political gathering has substantially raised attention to climate, environmental and future energy issues while leveraging the growing levels of concern amongst societies worldwide. But for both citizens and leaders alike, real action in the future will be a far more essential driver to the future direction of progress in comparison to the many words which will be spoken and to a lesser extent heard over the coming weeks. In this sense, the changing landscape of world energy demand will prove essential. The participation of private sector leaders in the Mission Innovation initiative and other programs being launched on the sidelines of the COP21 negotiations offer some reason for optimism.
From an energy demand perspective, the number of shoes actually marching in the direction of cleaner solutions has undeniably been growing. The efforts here in Paris this week by Narendra Modi to bring together a broader coalition of “Sunshine Countries” represents a similar effort to get people to collectively step in this proactive direction. In gaining the initial participation of over 100 countries, the Indian Prime Minister’s solar energy initiative has sought to harness the potential of a diverse array of counties close to the equator.
Just as protesters have historically expressed impatience with the current status quo and related policies, the growing momentum surrounding clean energy innovation can be observed in many civil society and business initiatives being unveiled in Paris. One example is the new Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project (DDPP) which will be co-led by the Paris-based Institute for Sustainable Development and International Relations (IDDRI). Three aspects of this particular initiative are telling indicators of the changing shape of a growing array of today’s environmental projects. First, the fact that the DDPP initiative seeks to focus on local solutions in many of the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitting countries. Second and to a certain extent conversely, the Project will work to find collaborative global solutions in part by leveraging shared insights. Third, the essential first “D” of the title with the word Deep speaks to the impatient eagerness of project participants to move quickly toward finding far-reaching solutions.
A growing contingent of business leaders have also begun to take greater steps to echo and drive forward such sentiment. Michael Bloomberg, CEO of the eponymous company which he founded, and Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi both addressed the Council on Foreign Relations at a COP21 preview session in New York. Although some skeptics may potentially try labelling their comments as greenwashing, Descalzi spoke about Eni’s important moves including their accelerated switch toward natural gas and other efforts to decrease the level of carbon in their operating portfolio. In speaking with the tone of an activist about one of the initiatives which he has personally contributed to, Bloomberg was more impatient and direct: “...And that reduced greenhouse gases by 20 percent, no thanks to the federal or state governments—no thanks to them. But you really can make a difference.”
Given the potential stakes of the future manifestation of catastrophic climate change, this field increasingly offers a rare case study of collaborative interaction across diverse states given the fertile ground for international cooperation. Political solutions based on respect and understanding might only be ripe for progress when the shared risks are so high. Just as supply and demand factors across most other segments of the world economy do not always directly follow policy prescriptions of governments, the same holds for energy. The changing spectrum of demand at a grassroots level may continue to become a more critical driver for success as the current evolution continues.
Carter W. Page is Founder and Managing Partner of Global Energy Capital LLC. He is a Fellow at the Center for National Policy in Washington and a frequent contributor to Global Policy Journal.
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Carter Page: Global Warming Believer?
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The Left isn’t all global warming believers...they don’t care, as long as it makes them $$$
If it tax $ all the better to them.
Some pigs are more equal than others.